Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

This was a fascinating read recently, regarding the mass manufacture of vaccines:

www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-covid-vaccine-serum-india/

More info on logistics here:

www.gponline.com/gps-deliver-two-dose-covid-19-vaccination-1258-per-jab-seven-days-week/article/1699389

The draft document confirms that 'several potential vaccines for COVID-19 are in the latter stages of phase III trials' and says that once one is ready and approved 'the country will be relying on the NHS to be ready to start immediate vaccination, fully deploying whatever scale of supply may be available, with zero delay'.

It will be quite a while before “general low risk population” get the vaccine I expect, the Pfizer CEO was on tv and said that whilst it’s not for them to decide distribution of the vaccine based on where it is produced etc. that he expects countries will have to take it in a phased approach, as no one is protected unless their neighbour is protected. It’s unlikely that we will get the full amount ordered at the start and will have to wait whilst other countries also get a proportion of their orders fulfilled

I think it'll have to be NHS (who can't work from home), care home staff and other healthcare providers first. Then care home residents and ECV. That might be almost 5m anyway.

Yes it's good news but only the first step in reality.

Can someone point me to False Positive stats please. Saw if before mentioned here, but didn’t bookmark it.
Thank you

Did anyone know how manufacturing the vaccine is controlled? Can it only be made by Pfizer/BioNTech or could others start manufacturing it once it's been approved? Are there legal or logistical problems to others manufacturing it?

@Coquohvan - I think we've ended up that this link is the most popular to share for explaining clearly about false positives: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mr42.

@Firefliess

Did anyone know how manufacturing the vaccine is controlled? Can it only be made by Pfizer/BioNTech or could others start manufacturing it once it's been approved? Are there legal or logistical problems to others manufacturing it?

a vaccine or other biological medicine is a bit like a sourdough starter.

basically you have a culture that you mix with growing medium and let the active cells grow. you keep a batch of cells back as control and to start the process anew.

in theory the company could share their starter cells to but it's more likely that the company will scale up themselves.

Insider view is that the Oxford Astra Zeneca is a better all round option, more effective, less unstable, and works better in the elderly. That's what I hear anyway.

I suspect different vaccines may be used for different population demographics. In the same way there is an over and under 65 vaccine for flu, we may have age specific vaccines.

and different companies might use different growth mediums so that allergic people (egg mainly) could be catered for.

Thanks all- Was asking be up I have a late 70s CEV Mum.

Hopefully Oxford vaccine and other ones in stage 3 will be ready very soon too so they have plenty to go round and choice of what to give to who. Do we know if Oxford is one vaccine dose?

Thank you for that explanation PinkBalconyRailing, it’s great!

Thanks @pink.

Yes it sounds as if the Oxford vaccine might also work and also be ready very soon, so quite likely that we'll have two different vaccines being rolled out at the same time, probably on some sort of logic about which is best for different groups.

If I’m remembering correctly it is only the Pfizer vaccination that needs to be stored at such low temperatures? If that is the case it may well be ditched in favour of the Oxford one.

@MRex thank you.

No numbers again... do they deliberately delay them so they don't have to show them at these press conferences??

My husband was musing about the same issue: he thinks the starter should be licenced at a very reasonable rate so production can be distributed, yet proprietary rights could be maintained.

Reading your thoughts on who is most likely to get it I have a question.
Why is it by default that the really elderly (70-100) will be in the first batch? They are the least likely to be mobile, they don't contribute to the economy* and it's easier for them to shield (eg no school aged children).
If their carers get vaccinated wouldn't that protect them?

*the economy is going to shit, my assumption is that to stay afloat we need to get it back on track as much as possible. So not saying elderly never contributed, etc.... so let's not go into that.

My priority list would be (and I'm not saying this would be right)

• healthcare/carers
• key worker who work in non-SD env (teachers, etc)
• working age ECV
• non working age ECV
• CV

Thoughts?

@RedRedRobinBobbin

If I’m remembering correctly it is only the Pfizer vaccination that needs to be stored at such low temperatures? If that is the case it may well be ditched in favour of the Oxford one.

yup, it's the -70- -90

I’ve just popped in to see if there’s an update on the Liverpool testing - four days now and people are getting their results very quickly, in an hour or so. Where is the data? Is it part of the usual Coronavirus dashboard? Or it is hidden elsewhere?

I'm baffled. an hour long press conference and i still don't know what the point of it was.

Another Monday and another low number of tests processed for Scotland, about 11,500, when the average daily this week has been over 18,000. So 914 positive tests doesn't really mean a decrease, rather a lack of testing.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I'm baffled. an hour long press conference and i still don't know what the point of it was.

The impression I got was that the purpose was to give a cautionary message. That although the Pfizer vaccine is potentially great news, that this is far from over-that it's vital we all observe the current restrictions and that we still have a extremely difficult winter ahead of us.

Am I the only one that thinks that 43000 people is a low amount to test to declare that a vaccine will be 90% efficient. Half of the 43000 will have been given a placebo so that's only just over 20K people that have had the vaccine. Also who have been the volunteers? Usually fit healthy people, so provoking a strong immune response in 20 thousand healthy young people surely does not translate as 90% efficiency when spread across the whole population?
Also interesting that it will take approx 6 weeks for the vaccine to provoke enough immune response to work.