Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

The latest date for tests processed (344,045) is 5/11. If you go back a week there were more - 378,079. Still a lot though.

I'm still not sure about the Liverpool tests. On the dashboard it says that the figures for both tests and cases are "laboratory" tests. And the Liverpool ones aren't done in labs are they? They're those instant ones that don't need labs. I would assume that if they include them we'd see a sudden jump in cases in Liverpool, but we can't see that currently - cases are still falling in Liverpool. So I think they've not included the cases detected in Liverpool. But I don't know where all the extra tests are coming from though. Are they finally managing to test all the care workers weekly maybe?

Ah yes you're right. Highest number of tests done in the last week or so, but it did briefly get higher than that

I find it interesting that in our small MSOA numbers have dropped drastically since half term.
We now have 10 cases /7days compared to early/mid oct where it was in the 50-100 range.
I'm keeping an eye on it if it is going to go up or stay at this level.

This MSOA is really small 21k people, but 2 secondary schools and 3 primaries. Secondaries are mostly non locals. And both groups interact a lot with locals - shops, coffee, bus.
The age of the are is very high, almost retirement village like :) Meaning that folks don't go out as much as young adults. It also has a very high% of uni educated retirees who are also well off enough to be able to afford help bringing them shopping, so they don't have to go out too often.

Did anyone find similar pattern where they live?

Numbers locally had started to fall, but it looks as though they are just starting to rise again.

The school have been back a week, I expect numbers to go up again in about a week's time. Hope I am terribly wrong.

It looks like there's been a drop around half term across the country. Have a feeling it does prove that schools should shut - but judging by the comments from some parents on here and the dreadful us for them, as well as the manipulation in the press.... I think we'll just end up with cases increasing again and a longer lockdown which will finish off what's left of the hospitality, tourism and entertainment industries. But hey, as long as little Johnny gets to play with his friends...l

update on local council area positivity rates (pillar 2), new column added for the latest seven day period. Colour coding as before, likewise direction of travel only highlighted if most recent week vs last week movement is at least 2 full percentage points up or down. Upper tier councils attached, district councils on post to follow.

and each district council area

Thank you boys. Your charts are always really helpful.

I'm quite confused about the numbers. When I clicked through on the dashboard the data mainly only goes up to the 5th? So I don't know what they are actually reporting today

The cases and deaths are updated. The testing is only updated a few times a week and the last is the 4th November. For admissions, England updates more frequently than the other home nations, so it's worth searching for England specifically for the most up to date figures.

Although England's last update was the 5th.

Has anyone else noticed the wording of the govt schools info and focusing on the autumn term?

It may just be they will release a different but similar guidance for spring term, but I do t recall it originally focusing on just getting kids back for autumn. It makes me suspicious that they have plans to close schools/do a rota system or whatever from January but they aren’t yet letting on. Maybe I’m overthinking it abd they’re just giving themselves a get out clause. Wasn’t the initial biggest peak in around jan-feb time?

As in predicted for jan/feb

I'm not sure that the data does really suggest that half term has had a huge impact (other than the post half term spike on 2/11).

By specimen date it looks to me as though cases were levelling out from around 21/22 October which would be before schools broke up and given the incubation period it would be at least a week or so after half term when we saw the drop.

I might be wrong on that and happy to be corrected but it's how it appears to me.

@Sunshinegirl82

I'm not sure that the data does really suggest that half term has had a huge impact (other than the post half term spike on 2/11).

By specimen date it looks to me as though cases were levelling out from around 21/22 October which would be before schools broke up and given the incubation period it would be at least a week or so after half term when we saw the drop.

I might be wrong on that and happy to be corrected but it's how it appears to me.

Many schools were off then. October was staggered throughout the country. My children and the surrounding LA’s were off that week and the week after. So it does link to half term.

I hadn't realised quite so many were off the week before. We will only be able to tell over the next week or two.

Lockdown will have some effect but age ranges should show it.

The issue is that the heat maps show that it moves from the younger ages to the older.

This shows positives by age range (credit to RP131 on Twitter) Due to the incubation period you wouldn't see an immediate drop in infections on the first day of the holiday. The drop should filter through a week or so after the time off.

I think it's more likely that people simply didn't get tested during the half term break (hence the big spike on 2/11 when everyone started getting tested again!)

Because of something else I took a look at heathrow stats (from their site).

Ch.deGaulle airport had 3.2m passangers in Aug.
www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/09/16/2094713/0/en/A%C3%A9roports-de-Paris-SA-August-2020-traffic-figures.html#:~:text=In%20July%20and%20August%202020,entirety%20of%20commercial%20passenger%20flights.

and a record of almost 90k cases yesterday.

I find this thread so informative so thank you for all the information.
Can I ask a quick question. A while ago there was another data thread and on that there was a link to an nhs spreadsheet that showed the total number of deaths until June and the ages and any underlying conditions on it.
Is there another one for recent weeks?
I have tried searching but can’t find it anywhere.
I know there was a 43 year old who passed away in my community recently. No underlying issues etc and extended family are saying she died of covid.
Also in our local paper (I’m in Yorkshire) it said that yesterday or day before there was a 39 year old who died of covid and had no underlying health issues.
I thought deaths of covid in under 50 were pretty infrequent or rare especially if there were no underlying health concerns, however I’m not so sure now.
I’d really appreciate it if there anyone could post the link for the nhs spreadsheet that shows covid deaths by condition and age.
Thanks. 😊

Heat map of cases in England by age group up to week ending 01 November:
mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1325012069184393216

@Reastie

Has anyone else noticed the wording of the govt schools info and focusing on the autumn term?

It may just be they will release a different but similar guidance for spring term, but I do t recall it originally focusing on just getting kids back for autumn. It makes me suspicious that they have plans to close schools/do a rota system or whatever from January but they aren’t yet letting on. Maybe I’m overthinking it abd they’re just giving themselves a get out clause. Wasn’t the initial biggest peak in around jan-feb time?

What's that from, the latest update to the reopening guidance or the new "lockdown" advice to schools? Am not sure the wording's changed. When the main guidance was originally released it was July, so obviously it was looking ahead to the Autumn term.

@Sb2012

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/11/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-5-November-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

Deaths in hospital by age and whether they had a precondition (though not what the condition was)

Summary - 8% of hospital deaths are under 60. 11% of those had no underlying condition.