Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

re the vaccine I am taking part in the novavax trial and was told by the very knowledgable and trustworthy doc in charge that Pfizer WILL be greenlighted very soon and they expect vaccination next month, starting with care homes and their staff.
It's definitely true

397 is high for a Monday though isn’t it? I thought Tuesday was the catch up day

France deaths incredibly high today at 854, anyone know if there's a reason for this or are they just going through really steep exponential growth?

It is Tuesday!..least I think it is although once lockdown starts I am bound to never know😂!

Anecdata alert! The testing numbers are interesting because I know lots of people who have had tests recently ( I'm in Yorkshire, with student DDs in hotspots) s as Kd got them with no problem and reasonable timely results. So, it seems unlikely that it's an availability/admin problem like in Sept.

The restrictions, legal implications etc could mean people are avoiding testing.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon it’s Tuesday 🤣

Argh! I’m so confused about the days of the week, sorry everyone I’m blaming having Monday off work thanks to an inset day...

As you were!

@Frazzled2207

re the vaccine I am taking part in the novavax trial and was told by the very knowledgable and trustworthy doc in charge that Pfizer WILL be greenlighted very soon and they expect vaccination next month, starting with care homes and their staff. It's definitely true

Although Pfizer announced that they hadn't done reached the level for their interim analysis ( only 32 cases) on Oct 27th- so they won't have been unblinded yet.

@cathyandclare

Anecdata alert! The testing numbers are interesting because I know lots of people who have had tests recently ( I'm in Yorkshire, with student DDs in hotspots) s as Kd got them with no problem and reasonable timely results. So, it seems unlikely that it's an availability/admin problem like in Sept.

The restrictions, legal implications etc could mean people are avoiding testing.

Also anecdata but we got tests almost immediately (could have got slots 5 mins within booking if it hadn't been for travelling) when we needed them this week. Results with 48 hours. Other end of country to you. So again don't think there is an availability issue (at least here)

Are people seeing the data on the gov site? I am still getting there updating the data which has been like that for what seems like hours.

BioNTech Chief Executive Ugur Sahin expects efficacy results from its late-stage trial of its potential coronavirus vaccine to be available shortly and said the company could file for U.S. approval in mid-November if the data are positive. (BioNTech is the co-developer with Pfizer.)
endpts.com/covid-19-roundup-flush-with-486m-contract-astrazeneca-signs-lonza-up-to-manufacture-antibodies-biontechs-ugur-sahin-expects-vaccine-data-in-a-fortnight/

397 deaths. Fewer than I feared

20018 cases

France's number is big because they only seem to add care hike deaths in every 3/4 days, in a lump. Deaths in hospital announced today was 426, the excess is care home deaths over the past 4 days.

dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA

So it's not quite as scary as it looks.

Testing's only 2/3 what it was on 30th October. It's not as simple as we've only picked up 2/3 of the cases we should have because people who are more certain will surely be more likely to get a test, but is that because people are avoiding being tested?

The cases are coming down a bit though, how many were there last Tuesday

@Jenasaurus

The cases are coming down a bit though, how many were there last Tuesday

20,408

sorry: 22,884
prev number is England only

Testing's only 2/3 what it was on 30th October. It's not as simple as we've only picked up 2/3 of the cases we should have because people who are more certain will surely be more likely to get a test, but is that because people are avoiding being tested

I think there's a good chance it's simply less excess testing, due to half term, and the university "test everyone" has faded away, and with "work from home", jobs will stop asking for as many tests - so it's more limited to just the people with real symptoms - as it really should have been all along.

There's been no change to anything that would stop people wanting to test, the restrictions haven't change, I can see that happening during lockdown itself - as people won't see the point if they're locked in anyway, but with the Tim Sepctor data point too, I don't see any alarm bells with inconsistent things.

Yes, Tim Spector's data indicates case numbers (daily transmission rates) might have been falling for a few days in a row.

Interestingly, when both REACT and ONS studies suggested that cases might have been levelling off, Zoe was still showing a steady upward trend. It turned out Zoe's modelling was indeed correct.

I am hoping Zoe is right once again and cases are indeed going down.

I'm sure it's a half term effect - less people told or who feel obliged to get a test.

So actually that's possibly an argument against schools closing - it would mask case rates in the younger age ranges. Although they'd be lower anyway if they weren't at school.

Does anyone follow Carl Heneghan on twitter? He has posted a few things recently that appear to say the figures given to support lockdown are wrong?

He has also posted a link a a news report saying intensive care is no more busy than it usually is?

Could also be the awful weather, more people sent for a home test or waited a day or two.

@Augustbreeze

I'm sure it's a half term effect - less people told or who feel obliged to get a test.

So actually that's possibly an argument against schools closing - it would mask case rates in the younger age ranges. Although they'd be lower anyway if they weren't at school.

I agree.... I'm a cynic but especially with secondary school kids they won't want to have a positive test and have to isolate over half term!

the report is in the telegraph so I cant read what it says.