Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

I’m slightly baffled by all those students who were organised to know their NHS number and put it into the testing website when it was voluntary, but they weren’t organised enough to change GPS!

It's not necessarily organisation.
DD we discussed it and chose not to change. She's seen a GP twice since she was 10yo. We have a very good GP, who is full so if she comes back to live with us afterwards she wouldn't get back in. And if she had an emergency need she's there 28-30 weeks, here 22-24, so not that much difference. If it's an ongoing problem, she's far more likely to go with me nagging than on her own.
I made her put her NHS number in her phone so if she did need emergency care up there, then she had it if needed.

Does technical difficulties mean today's the day that cases are assigned to wherever people are staying? So they're gawping at some significant change that created...
Just hope it isn't another old sofa that they've found.

@CoffeeandCroissant - 80% of current European cases can be traced back to farm workers in Spain (primarily Romanian / Bulgarian).
www.ft.com/content/2782655a-0441-4d38-bb03-5c4e67ead110
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.
This delightful brand of covid started small in mid July in Spain, travelled back around Europe with holidaymakers and has been growing ever since.
Restaurants following guidance were fairly safe in that they wouldn't be able to infect too many at once, so EOTHO wouldn't be making an impact on it's own. Some restaurants might have broken rules with excess numbers of even wedding parties, but other rule breaking has included raves, weddings in marquees in back gardens etc; all rule-breaking should be treated the same.
Anyway, my point is that the evidence is that holidaymakers brought it back. I'm fine with a brief circuitbreaker, but do think #closebordersnotbars makes a nice tag.

A few of those earlier regional graphs with the over 70 five year age bandings shown - NE, NW, and Y&H - alongside just the 15-19s and 20-24 lines. Shown as cases per 100,000

@SecretSpAD

can't believe the cognitive dissonance on some of the other threads

I find your use of the word I've emboldened deeply troubling. As we are a data and analysis thread I think perhaps almost every other would be a more accurate phrase?

@Hmmph

Thanks for those graphs Boys3 - very interesting!

I am also slightly shocked that the uni students home GP address we’re used. I’m slightly baffled by all those students who were organised to know their NHS number and put it into the testing website when it was voluntary, but they weren’t organised enough to change GPS!

I have also noticed that the University of Surrey and the University of Southampton don’t seem to be causing spikes of cases.

Also hello to the Surrey people! Waverley is now higher than Elmbridge.

There has been quite a lot of testing in Southampton as there was research into a saliva-based quick test there, with mass testing of uni students and pupils from 4 schools. You would hope that identifying cases with mass random testing would help isolate cases promptly and that would keep numbers down?

The care home regular swabbing was billed as starting 6th July, maybe didn't fully kick in until about a month later... Hmmm... Still too early for the uptick in cases we can see in your graphs @boys3? www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-in-care-homes-statistics-to-8-july-2020/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-in-care-homes-statistics-to-8-july-2020

is it rows or columns for today's technical difficulty?

21:45 my prediction for publication of today's numbers. Given the US election let me stress that is 21:45 today.

Well well done the NE for getting their 90+ down but gosh the others are worrying.

Bbc reported the fine detail report of new lockdown rules has been published. Anyone found it yet? I haven't....

@boy3
Maybe the arrow key has got stuck and they can't move excel out of the far corner.

How many missed cases do you think they found?

Is it at all possible that numbers have suddenly reduced enough to make a second lockdown look like overkill? Probably a totally bonkers thought to even entertain but what on earth would happen if that was the case?

The Zoe app has indicated a drop in R. From the Telegraph:

Lower R-rate raises hopes lockdown could be avoided. With just over 24 hours until England's new lockdown is due to come into force, the R-rate has fallen to 1 - leading to hopes that a national shutdown could be avoided. New data from a King's College app, which has been tracking symptoms and test results since the first wave, showed a slight fall in new cases - meaning the pandemic is no longer increasing in some of the worst areas. The new results are more evidence that the tier system is working (this is how the rules differ to lockdown) and will put greater pressure on Boris Johnson to pause the national lockdown set for 00.01 on Thursday

I think it's unlikely to make a difference to lockdown on Thursday, but who knows??!!

I don't think they would stop it now.... maybe they would review in 2 weeks rather than 4 but I doubt that too...

They'd want to see hospital pressure lessen for sure before they made that move

The mass student testing was seen as the cause of the huge numbers in other areas though as they were mostly asymptotic. Has Southampton Uni published anything that anyone has seen. Might be a bit soon though.

Not sure if this has been posted yet? Quite a useful tool.

Age based heat maps by local authority (England only).
victimofmaths.shinyapps.io/COVID_Cases_By_Age/

I would be somewhat suspicious if they did drop enough to show that, and I think they'd be keen to publicise it as "see our level 3s are working", therefore lockdown is really important.
Plus one day doesn't show much-it could easily then be evened out over the next few days.

Zoe app is still slowly climbing, and I haven't seen anything that genuinely seems to think it's better than levelling off, so I think that's unlikely.

Vaccine to start being rolled out in December all being well

First the cavets.

Its 50:50 whether it will indeed be ready.

Priority given to over 85s and front line workers first.

www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start/
Exclusive: Covid vaccine DES set to be announced imminently for December start

Exclusive A new DES is set to be announced imminently for practices and PCNs to start administering a Covid vaccine from the beginning of December, Pulse understands.

Practices and PCNs will be asked to prepare to give the vaccine to over 85s and front line workers from the start of December, numerous sources have confirmed to Pulse.

There are currently two vaccines that are being prepared, with one requiring two shots and needing to be kept at minus 70 degrees.

Alongside GPs and PCNs, there will be teams delivering it to care homes, and at-scale delivery centres.

And

It remains unclear exactly which vaccines will be administered, but Pfizer’s vaccine in development has to be kept at minus 70 degrees, while the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine was shown to be more effective when administered in two doses.

They also probably want it to drop below 1 so that we don't plateau at a high level. Also need to consider the estimates from REACT2 and ONS surveys too, not rely on a single source. Also, there was a considerable difference in R estimates from Zoe, ONE and REACT2 last week, perhaps waiting for more data this week may result in more agreement between them?

@Witchend

I would be somewhat suspicious if they did drop enough to show that, and I think they'd be keen to publicise it as "see our level 3s are working", therefore lockdown is really important. Plus one day doesn't show much-it could easily then be evened out over the next few days.

Zoe app is still slowly climbing, and I haven't seen anything that genuinely seems to think it's better than levelling off, so I think that's unlikely.

This is the Tweet from Tim Spector.

twitter.com/timspector/status/1323563821496176650

He urges caution though, because of increasing cases in older people.

Clearly an R of 1 would result in levelling off not falling.

Suspect the data release is imminent - the "due to a technical issue" message is now off the site, so somebody's working on something there.

ONS not ONE - damn you autocarrot

@RedToothBrush

Thanks for the link, sounds promising.

Also see

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8910093/amp/GPs-told-prepare-jabs-85s-frontline-medics-weeks.html?__twitter_impression=true
Is a Covid-19 vaccine coming at the start of December? GPs are 'told to prepare to give jabs to over-85s and frontline medics within weeks'

Theres a little more information in this.

With more cavets

@PrayingandHoping

Bbc reported the fine detail report of new lockdown rules has been published. Anyone found it yet? I haven't....

The draft legislation has been published - is that what they mean? www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1200/contents/made