Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Great graphs boys thanks.

Wow to the blue lines! Shame it's hard to distinguish between uni and school students though.

Going back a bit in terms of news.... but I wondered whether anyone has shared this bit of info with regards to where positive results were logged:

Students who test positive for coronavirus at university will be recorded as a positive case at their usual home address unless they have registered with a new doctors’ surgery, the government has confirmed—although their term-time addresses can also be stored in the system. Our readers asked us to look into claims that positive Covid-19 cases amongst students were being recorded at their home local authorities rather than their university towns. A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) confirmed to Full Fact that NHS Test and Trace “uses the most up-to-date address held by the individual’s GP”. Although many universities encourage students to register with a local GP when they arrive, this means that any who have not done this will have their positive tests assigned to their home address rather than their term-time location

So Richmond was right to claim that many of their positive results were for university students.

@NeurotrashWarrior I agree, a further age split would give more insight, if anything the graphs just raise a lot more questions.

And picking up on the address point one might have naively assumed that a world beating track and trace operation would have picked that up and ensured the necessary data correction was made. Not quite sure why that appears not to have happened..........,.....,, oh wait, its that world beating maybe being not quite there yet

Newcastle city council started presenting graphs with students with a Gp at a different address a while ago.

It's meant that sometimes there's different graphs shown in data.

Some show a rise and flatten. Some show a big rise and drop and flatten, obviously the latter being the extra student data. I keep having to spot which is which.,

Thanks @boys3, interesting as ever. What particularly intrigues me is the increase in 60+ in some cases started simultaneously with the big University-age rise. We know testing was increasing for care homes, is there any way to split the data for 85+ as a little proxy and map with a line for the increase in testing? We increased care home and uni testing, found lots more cases, is there a risk that the volume is a distraction, masking where the issues will arise? Looking by age group the East Mids looks like the up-and-coming concern, because they have steep rises unassociated with either.

@Baaaahhhhh - given that both addresses exist, they could simply publish summary results with residence and GP-registered address. I anticipate they'll announce in coming weeks that going forward cases for LA monitoring will be logged based on current residence, rather than update old cases where it might raise questions about tiers. Then we'll see some areas drop like a stone and other areas rise, but without being able to compare backwards. I live nearby, so have tried looking into the Richmond/ Kingston/ Elmbridge/ Epsom issue and it's just clear as mud right now as to what percentage of cases fit. Obviously it's just as important for areas like NW assessing their hospital capacity needs. Anecdata I've heard 4 cases now of a uni student coming home to parents recently bringing covid with them, which backs up a theory I had of idiocy going on. But it complicates the matter in that: 1) the student may have come back and still be home or have returned to uni, 2) the student may have been tested at uni or at home either way, 3) regardless they infected late 40s-60s age parents who live in the area. Also anecdata - treatment is much better so people are leaving the hospitals much faster. Actual data - nowhere near the numbers in hospital you'd expect from the case numbers a few weeks ago, even ignoring age.

I live nearby - Me too, I follow Guildford, Woking, Waverley, Surrey Heath, Elmbridge, Mole Valley, as all local to me, so always interested in local anomolies. As above, the rates in Guildford should be high because of Surrey Uni, but they aren't. I am still wondering whether uni students results are just a reflection of a high local infection rate, rather than the driving force behind it. As in, they went to Nottingham (or wherever), caught it in the local pub, and then it spread like wildfire within halls. Nothing to do in Guildford, and few local cases, so no mass cases in Surrey Uni?

General musings.......

It will be interesting to see the effect (if any) of London emptying out. DD is coming home, as are all her co-workers and mates. All youngsters, in shared accommodation, with no facilities for wfh, and not wanting to be left alone and isolated.

Yes, I'm hearing similar. DN informs me their uni told them to go home by Wednesday or they wouldn't be able to go home until Christmas (Why uni???? Why????). DN flat is isolating, watching the other students piling off home (many of whom already had one isolation bout after confirmed cases...). It's very concerning.

@MRex it's in the gov guidelines that uni students can't go home during lockdown. So they either go home before or stay put....

Personally I think all uni students should go home and do online teaching unless they are on a practical course

What on earth are uni students going to do at uni during lockdown?? There will be no uni life.....

Actual data - nowhere near the numbers in hospital you'd expect from the case numbers a few weeks ago, even ignoring age

Unless the hospital cases then were biased more towards with covid, particularly if they were young people in for minor accidents etc. as those individuals would likely be leaving quickly and be irrelevant for covid terms. With more routine admissions and A&E admissions likely dropping, and older people infected I think there's a good chance that pattern won't follow through - the distinction on the admittance stats would be useful again.

Personally I think all uni students should go home and do online teaching unless they are on a practical course

University students are home, they are in a household at university, whilst I of course agree with you in many ways, it's only because I don't believe in the evidence for the restriction anyway, but if you accept the evidence exists, and that's why we have the rule on households not mixing then university students need to remain in their current household.

As to what they'll do - the same as everyone else, there's nothing special about university students!

Hi. I've just discovered these threads and going to hide out on here if that's ok? I can't believe the cognitive dissonance on some of the other threads and the mental gymnastics that people are doing to try and pretend that the reality isn't that young people are catching and spreading this virus.

I can't tell you exactly what I'm working on as it's confidential, but it's covid related and I can say that you're right with your predictions and maths on here.

I'm also in the SW and we had a fair few visitors down here last week and so expecting an uptick in numbers coming soon. It's just promoting the anti-tourist attitude in some people, but we all know that due to our lack of bed capacity we are in a more fragile position than a lot of other areas and also with our elderly population....it's worrying. And don't get me started on the ageism on here.....

Bit more of a breakdown for the NW - one for GM councils and one for my interpretation of the Liverpool City region. A bit surprised to see the downward direction for cases in the over 60s for the latter - so the third graph is just over 60 cases for those LAs.

and then Cumbria and Lancashire county council areas - note Blackburn and Darwen and Blackpool not included in the latter. and of course Warrington and the Cheshires I've not covered either

@Baaaahhhhh

I live nearby - Me too, I follow Guildford, Woking, Waverley, Surrey Heath, Elmbridge, Mole Valley, as all local to me, so always interested in local anomolies. As above, the rates in Guildford should be high because of Surrey Uni, but they aren't. I am still wondering whether uni students results are just a reflection of a high local infection rate, rather than the driving force behind it. As in, they went to Nottingham (or wherever), caught it in the local pub, and then it spread like wildfire within halls. Nothing to do in Guildford, and few local cases, so no mass cases in Surrey Uni?

General musings.......

I think part of it is that most Unis - including the perceived upper end - pull a majority of students from their own and adjacent regions. So Manchester Uni (not Met) clear majority of home undergrads drawn from the North West and then Yorkshire & Humber. Hot spots to start with. The MN myth that everyone is called Anton or Cressida and travels from deepest home county to the the farest flung reaches of the country simply does not stand scrutiny. Surrey Uni will have a low rate as it reflects the majority of its students being more southern based and in lower infection rate areas to start with. UEA in Norwich just the same - large majority from Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent and London.

Durham is of course the exception, and it would be so much easier for almost all concerned if it could just be plonked in Richmond park (loads of space for it!) and save huge travel time for the majority of its students. :) plus all the associated environmental benefits concreting over a large green space in West London excluded :)

@sirfredfredgeorge

Actual data - nowhere near the numbers in hospital you'd expect from the case numbers a few weeks ago, even ignoring age

Unless the hospital cases then were biased more towards with covid, particularly if they were young people in for minor accidents etc. as those individuals would likely be leaving quickly and be irrelevant for covid terms. With more routine admissions and A&E admissions likely dropping, and older people infected I think there's a good chance that pattern won't follow through - the distinction on the admittance stats would be useful again.

Personally I think all uni students should go home and do online teaching unless they are on a practical course

University students are home, they are in a household at university, whilst I of course agree with you in many ways, it's only because I don't believe in the evidence for the restriction anyway, but if you accept the evidence exists, and that's why we have the rule on households not mixing then university students need to remain in their current household.

As to what they'll do - the same as everyone else, there's nothing special about university students!

Well personally when I was at uni I know I wouldn't want to have been locked down there. Halls and houses were never great and if you can't do out socialising outside your house, go into town, go down the pub it would have been awful. Not everyone likes the people u get stuck in halls with..... and the cooking facilities were basic.

The temptations to break rules and socialise outside your household will be high at uni.

Locked in on those conditions, home would have be beckoning! I totally understand why people are going home.

Durham is of course the exception, and it would be so much easier for almost all concerned if it could just be plonked in Richmond park (loads of space for it!) and save huge travel time for the majority of its students.

Dd would be delighted if you could arrange that although please don't give it London prices!

Welcome @SecretSpAD - this is the place where the sensible data folk hang out, sometimes the other threads feel more to me like my local Facebook group with bizarre theories and mental leaps all over the show.

Boys - v interesting graphs, which anecdotally fit with my perception of life here at the moment. We were being absolutely hammered a few weeks ago, and it seems slightly better at the moment. Half term and horrendous weather has kept everyone inside! My kids went back today after a 12 day break (inset days tagged on) so hopefully that’s been a circuit break for our own school - I know some others locally did the same.

This is the latest graph for Essex which shows cases levelling off in the under 20’s.

"Owing to technical difficulties, we have not received cases data for England. We will update the service as soon as possible."

From the Coronavirus update site. Who fucked up this time? How many cases did they lose? When will someone rummage down the back of the data sofa and find them?

Graph now attached!

Data trend lines:
mobile.twitter.com/JeremyFarrar/status/1323398895339245568

Attached (from previous post)

Communications professional here - I suspect the "technical difficulties" owes more to the live questioning of Messrs Vallance and Whitty, and that the data will become available shortly after that.
But then, you see, I have a bad mind, and that's what I'd do.

Thanks for those graphs Boys3 - very interesting!

I am also slightly shocked that the uni students home GP address we’re used. I’m slightly baffled by all those students who were organised to know their NHS number and put it into the testing website when it was voluntary, but they weren’t organised enough to change GPS!

I have also noticed that the University of Surrey and the University of Southampton don’t seem to be causing spikes of cases.

Also hello to the Surrey people! Waverley is now higher than Elmbridge.

@Cattermole
I was thinking something similar. Maybe they have to be the one to press the button. Or Whitty's got the figures in his back pocket.