Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Another RP131 chart from Twitter. This time tracking deaths against the various models. Personally I'm a bit annoyed that the "4000 deaths a day" soundbite has aimed so much traction when it looks to me as though it's already fairly clear that we are not tracking that projected trajectory.

Last week I saw on another data thread a link to a sort of league table of MSOAs which I found interesting. Does anyone have a link to the up to date version please?

Scotland had 951 positive tests today, but tests processed were just over 11,000, which is about 7000 less than the average for the last 7 days. Windy weather seems to have affected testing. That or another lab screw up
I also wonder the effects of the October holidays. Is it less school transmission or less people testing?

Mass testing plan for Liverpool: mobile.twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1323390429723840517

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]Mass testing plan for Liverpool: mobile.twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1323390429723840517[/quote]
Those twitter comments were a bit but the actual newspaper article made interesting reading, thanks @CoffeeandCroissant.

Our positive numbers are going to ramp up though!

If the tier 2 was introduced on 18th October, I don't think it really would have effect for a good few days, 5 at least, and probably more like 7, so it looks like they were going to go down anyway.

There's got to be time for people to pick it up, go through incubation period and develop symptoms, decide they need a test and order a test and receive that test.

Maybe through self regulating as people saw the figures go up?

I'm very close to Elmbridge and I would say that quite a lot of self regulating started before tier 2 came in.

There was a lot on social media highlighting the steep rise in cases which alarmed a lot of people.

I'm really not sure why Elmbridge had higher cases than other nearby similar areas. General rule following and measures like mask wearing have always seemed to be pretty high to me.

Thankfully Elmbridge numbers do seem to be reducing but there are now several other Surrey areas where the infection rate is now much higher than Elmbridge, having once been much lower. It seems as soon as the virus starts to fall in one area it starts to surge in another.

Covid 💩 @COVIDPoops19 on twitter:

Global dashboard of wastewater monitoring efforts of SARS-CoV-2.
ucmerced.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c778145ea5bb4daeb58d31afee389082

mobile.twitter.com/COVIDPoops19/status/1323407540072243200

Bookmarked the global poo dashboard, thank you @CoffeeandCroissant! Zurich is the best dashboard (though terrifying growth stats), most don't actually have a dashboard yet, but soon...!

I'm concerned Liverpool isn't the right place to start. You could have a genius saint running the country who did all the right things, but under a Conservative name they would be despised and mistrusted in Liverpool, and we have Boris who they have other reasons to hate. It's known to have a lot of covid skeptics as well, and those comments are fairly mild compared with what I'd expect to see. I just don't think they'll engage, and it'll just delay getting the project moving. If it had started in Birmingham or Bristol you'd have howls of protest from Liverpool/ Manchester for why not them first, then they could have been engaged. Hopefully I'm wrong and the sensible people will pop up to be tested, creating the right environment for others to engage.

Just popping on to say hi, I lurk and rarely post on these threads but do appreciate they are here.

I saw an article last week (I'll have a look for it) stating that between 17.5 and 25% of people in hospital with covid, actually caught it in the hospital. So maybe as well as mass testing etc, there should be investment in infection control.

Here it is
www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-ongoing-problem-of-hospital-acquired-infections-across-the-uk/

Not sure why Liverpool is being given the headline of mass testing really.... Luton had the same in the summer (without the rapid test admittedly) where anyone could have a test, symptoms or not even if u lived near, not in, or came into Luton for work etc.

@PrayingandHoping
Not on this scale though surely. And we’ll see what it means but it would appear that all schools, workplaces, unis will be encouraged to have everyone tested. I really hope they manage to persuade the vast majority to join in.

I would combine the mass testing with a reduction in the isolation period to 7 days and some kind of financial incentive which I think would maximise both participation and compliance with the isolation requirement. No point finding positive cases if they don't then isolate.

@LivinLaVidaLoki - hospital acquired infections are an issue every flu/ norovirus season too. The problem is that new patients come to hospital each day from the community, as do the staff. Even with regular testing people can become infectious while in hospital and start to spread it, while many patients are weaker than average and more susceptible to infection. There has been a major increase in who wears PPE and when, and trusts have adapted some procedures for weak points. Each time there's an outbreak they'll do the same again; investigate and work out improvements. As community infections rise though, hospital infections will rise and can't be fully suppressed without also reducing community infections. This is one reason why PHE wanted to quickly move elderly out to care homes early on, but of course we all saw how badly that strategy worked out.

@Frazzled2207 well ANYONE could be tested. Anyone at all. Even outside the council borough. Schools weren't back then.... they constantly sent appeals out asking people to come forward for testing, opened up testing centres everywhere. It was a big thing.

I can't see the difference tbh

It worked though.... it got the numbers down

Also a big problem with hospital acquired infections is staff moving between areas of symptomatic positive patients and areas of asymptomatic patients and differing levels of adherence to infection control between Staff/areas. Staff absence due to isolation requiring staff to move between areas or use of bank/agency staff to cover increases the risk of transfer. A solution to the last one would be teams for both that provide cover but don't mix between the covid/asymptomatic areas, but I don't know if they would get enough staff willing to always cover on the covid areas. The tricky area would be specialist Doctors such as Orthopaedics or ENT who may have to travel to many different areas of the hospital to see patients who may require their input, there are not enough in most hospitals to run two teams I suspect.

Some trusts are doing staff wide PCR testing to try and see if outbreaks relate to asymptomatic positive staff.

That's Luton though, Luton have been known for voluntarily complying with extra distancing measures.

@MRex lol is that really the national public image???

It's far from the reality

Even local councillors were named and shamed with photos on social for having massive parties when it was against the rules

Many didn't appear to pay any attention or even try and find out what the rules were

I wouldn't say Luton was any "better behaved" than anywhere else in the country.

@PrayingandHoping - ok, lesson learned, believe nothing that would indicate anyone has been sensible without concrete proof.

I do honestly believe it was the mass testing that made the difference though....

That poo dashboard is great. Also pleased to see that there is data available in Scotland from SEPA. Some initial testing in June and then regularly from August. Covering approx 50% of the population.

Following up on my superficial analysis of age bands using the age band data file updated on the dashboard yesterday afternoon and with specimen date to 28th October graphs for each region 1st Sep to date - I actually started with mid August but frankly the upward trajectory leading into September was so limited it extended the graphs for no good reason.

Some real spikes in the 15-19s as we all know about although some a lot spikier than others, and some with a much more rapid downward trajectory. To minimise the already excessive number of lines on the graph I've kept the over 60s as a single group, everything below that in five year bands.

The columns shows the 7 day moving average for all ages then then the age bands link to the secondary y axis scale.

Thicker blue line is 15-19s; thicker red line 20-24s; purple line 25-29s
First three regions - North East, North West, Yorks & Humber

East Mids, West Mids and East of England

West Mids less of an 15-19 spike than other regions, and less of a dip - indeed for last couple of weeks pretty much flat. 20-24s continues upward, having never really dipped at all after initial growth.

last but not least London (25-29 purple line stands out); SE and SW. 20-24s (red line) continues rapid upward trajectory in SW (which I will double check)

Worth stressing these are all regional level graphs so a lot of variance likely in different parts of a region and for specific LAs within a region. If I get a chance I'll see if I can add a split for the North West maybe for Greater Manchester LAs and Cumbria for example.

Other requests considered although would not wish to fall foul of the MN pic limit

Cant find the article but this just appeared on the news.