How is this going to pan out without a firebreak?

[Starlight101]

I’ve just listening to a sage scientist on the radio. He spoke a lot of sense. He basically said that even if every part of the country went into Tier 3 now then that wouldn’t bring the R rate below one. It might get it to one but it’s more likely to remain above one. So in 2-3 weeks we can expect 300-400 deaths a day due to the current amount of infection in the population. If the R rate remains at 1 then this will continue for months. In 10 days that’s 3000-4000 deaths, in 100 days (about 3 months) that’s 30000-40000 deaths.

A circuit breaker would likely half the infection levels thus halving all those numbers above. He agreed it’s also easier for track and trace to do their thing with smaller numbers involved.

How on Earth is this going to pan out without a circuit breaker. The numbers are shocking

I'm in tier two and taking it seriously. Which now the weather is changeable is quite restricting. If others aren't I do wonder whether I should.

These tier rules are just not tough enough. The cinema in Manchester yesterday was showing a live football match with over 100 men in there watching it. How is that safer than meeting a relative at home? Football clubs are showing games in their hospitality suites. Pubs are always checking if people are adhering to the no mixing households rules and how could they? If two people say they are from the same house then who are they to argue. Only a full circuit break lockdown for a few weeks will slow this down again.