How is this going to pan out without a firebreak?

[Starlight101]

I’ve just listening to a sage scientist on the radio. He spoke a lot of sense. He basically said that even if every part of the country went into Tier 3 now then that wouldn’t bring the R rate below one. It might get it to one but it’s more likely to remain above one. So in 2-3 weeks we can expect 300-400 deaths a day due to the current amount of infection in the population. If the R rate remains at 1 then this will continue for months. In 10 days that’s 3000-4000 deaths, in 100 days (about 3 months) that’s 30000-40000 deaths.

A circuit breaker would likely half the infection levels thus halving all those numbers above. He agreed it’s also easier for track and trace to do their thing with smaller numbers involved.

How on Earth is this going to pan out without a circuit breaker. The numbers are shocking

@Orangeblossom7777

the sustainable approach with schools and circuit breakers

Right. Yes continued stop / start closures of the economy and schools is the answer, across the board

That makes no sense. Sorry.

Many areas are stop/start now with children and teachers out all over the place. Maybe you are lucky to be in an area that is low for now but it will come to you too. Having a more predictable 5 weeks at a time in schools with short circuit breakers inbetween would be much better

@ptumbi

See this is what I don't understand. Tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people have already had the virus. But they are not 'immune' because it can strike twice So how will a vaccine work then? If you are not immune from your own body building antibodies, then a vaccine will not make you immune either (as that is exactly what a vaccine does - make your body make antibodies.)

I think those who've had it, should have exemption form all these restrictions - they are the safest people, and you should be able to hug them, the should not have to wear masks, they are immune and can't catch it or spread it.

How will the vaccine actually make it better? Will vaccinated people have no restrictions/masks??? How do you think we will get out of this?

A vaccine works differently than having had the virus. IIRC the astroseneca one teaches your body to recognise and do something about the "spikes" on the virus. I could be wrong about the technicality though because I didn't really read into it. If your immune against a virus due to having had it then your white blood cells recognise the virus as an intruder, "eat it" and then die so you can poop them out. The problem is that we're not sure how long the immunity lasts for the majority of people, since there weren't a lot of tests being done a few months ago. We can't compare yet.

How do you think we can afford that then Starlight?

@Iremembertheelderlykoreanlady

The NHS manages the flu vaccine every winter. This is no different. It will not take years 🙄🙄

And to whoever said it upthread re differences between tier 2 and 3...you can still see friends/family in tier 3 just not inside or in a garden. Go for a walk!

Yes for a third of the population/half this year.

Nothing to suggest it’ll be the NHS that does it. This will be given to a service supply company like Serco/Deloitte and if they can get 66m people comprehensively and routinely vaccinated then I’m a monkeys uncle.

Also why are you so sure that would work? It is endemic now a few weeks will not bring the level down a lot in high areas. Even the main lockdown didn't in the summer.

yeah, not much faith in my GP surgery, I am missing my flu jab this year, as there is a shortage apparently

@Orangeblossom7777

How do you think we can afford that then Starlight?

How are we going to afford the emergency lockdown that will come probably next month when hospitals are overwhelmed and the huge infection numbers are too high to deal with without a long lockdown??

@mrshoho everything is based around the idea of 'exponential growth' mainly inspired by the Imperial Model, which by now has been shown to be utter bunkum. Far from just growing and growing and growing, what has always been showing with epidemiology is that numbers grow unevenly to a certain level and then drop off, regardless of the policies pursued : www.timesofisrael.com/the-end-of-exponential-growth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus

The assumption that a trend will just continue and continue is not based on any evidence, it's just guess that has no data at all to back it up. Even in very badly affected areas such as Italy, cases did drop, before any lockdown/distancing measures could take effect. The problem is that the response is usually a panicked introduction of measures before any natural decline can be seen, leading to the assumption that those measures are what had the effect. When you actually look at the data, it shows, for example, that numbers had started to decline in the UK before the March lockdown could have any effect - ie number declined on their own regardless of the measures. It's also been shown, as in the article above, that no matter what measures a country takes (and there is very large variability among countries) the long-term effect is the same - measures have temporary impact but it all evens out in the end. Even Brazil, which had a very chaotic response to the virus and a high initial death toll has seen a drop in infections.

I really hope Neil Ferguson is called to account for planting the idea that a virus can just spread and spread and spread. His model did not take into account the fact that ill people stay at home and that people on ventilators certainly don't spread infection in the pub. His model is crude and basic, it doesn't reflect the real situation. I really wish more accurate data and a more realistic picture of what's really going on was used instead of random data built in faulty model.

The vaccines produce an immune response so the definitely work, in some way. No vaccine is 100% effective. The current flu vaccine is only 50% effective. This is why countries that are going for an elimination strategy will eventually have a massive problem (or pursue that strategy for ever) as it will be a combination of vaccinated people and natural immunity that will combine to create herd immunity. Lots of people will still get the disease and die from it as they do from flu, but not at the level where our health service is threatened (hopefully!)

A series of short planned circuit breakers with a chance for the economy to recover in between would have been more sensible.

Do you really think that next month, when we have hospitals at capacity all over the news, infection rates and deaths soaring, that people are going to be popping down to the town centre to do some leisurely shopping? That people are going to be waving their children off into school? The economy shut itself down in March when people were scared. People will get scared again.

www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/covid-continues-to-hit-north-hard-as-analysis-indicates-lockdown-varied-in-its-effectiveness-across-the-country/

But the OP thinks we need to lockdown across the whole UK...

Also many of you seem to be completely ignoring the fact that covid is now declining in many High risk areas (R less than 1), indicating that tiers 2 and 3 do work (obviously, since it spreads via close contact which mostly occurs in people's homes)

I think you will find that many scientists have explained the numbers dropping before official lockdown as people putting themselves into voluntary lockdown out of fear. Yes, viruses will naturally decline themselves due to times of the year, immunity etc. but none of that is on our side yet.

I’d rather spend 6 months at tier 3 then have any sort of fire break / lockdown.

@Tfoot75

Also many of you seem to be completely ignoring the fact that covid is now declining in many High risk areas (R less than 1), indicating that tiers 2 and 3 do work (obviously, since it spreads via close contact which mostly occurs in people's homes)

I’d like to see those statistics that the R is less than 1 in any area as all the ones I have seen puts every area between 1.3 and 1.5. The rate of increase may be declining but that is very different and can still lead to huge increases.

@Starlight101

A series of short planned circuit breakers with a chance for the economy to recover in between would have been more sensible.

Do you really think that next month, when we have hospitals at capacity all over the news, infection rates and deaths soaring, that people are going to be popping down to the town centre to do some leisurely shopping? That people are going to be waving their children off into school? The economy shut itself down in March when people were scared. People will get scared again.

Do you really think the economy recovers in between lockdowns? Is that how you think an economy works?

God almighty people are going to get a massive shock next year when their own utter stupidity bites them on the arse. All this pandemic has shown is that people are genuinely, totally thick and that they have no idea how the world around them actually works. It explains Brexit I suppose.

my area has been in local lockdown since July, now we are Tier 3 and cases are rising not dropping!

I don't think it's possible to just switch 'the economy' on and off -
A series of short planned circuit breakers with a chance for the economy to recover in between would have been more sensible

Things don't really work like that...it would have massive implications over people's lives, and health, both physical and mental.

@ImMoana

I’d rather spend 6 months at tier 3 then have any sort of fire break / lockdown.

Well if the government carries on as it is you will have your wish @ImMoana. Let us know how that works out for you in the end.

@Starlight101 are you aware that the 'R' number is a total guess and that no one actually has any idea what the actual number is?

@Orangeblossom7777

I don't think it's possible to just switch 'the economy' on and off - A series of short planned circuit breakers with a chance for the economy to recover in between would have been more sensible

Things don't really work like that...it would have massive implications over people's lives, and health, both physical and mental.

And the virus running out of control like it is now won’t????

[quote TheDailyCarbuncle]@Starlight101 are you aware that the 'R' number is a total guess and that no one actually has any idea what the actual number is?[/quote]
I’m aware of that but it’s the best guess of scientists. I’ll take that over a random Mumsnetter declaring it to be less than 1

Where did they get these terms, firebreak and circuit breaker?

Oh dear, I see there is no point in engaging further here. Good luck OP with your quest for multiple UK wide 'firebreaks'.

@Iaminliquidform

my area has been in local lockdown since July, now we are Tier 3 and cases are rising not dropping!

Proof if proof were needed. Lots of areas have had stronger than Tier 3 restrictions and haven’t declined.