How is this going to pan out without a firebreak?

[Starlight101]

I’ve just listening to a sage scientist on the radio. He spoke a lot of sense. He basically said that even if every part of the country went into Tier 3 now then that wouldn’t bring the R rate below one. It might get it to one but it’s more likely to remain above one. So in 2-3 weeks we can expect 300-400 deaths a day due to the current amount of infection in the population. If the R rate remains at 1 then this will continue for months. In 10 days that’s 3000-4000 deaths, in 100 days (about 3 months) that’s 30000-40000 deaths.

A circuit breaker would likely half the infection levels thus halving all those numbers above. He agreed it’s also easier for track and trace to do their thing with smaller numbers involved.

How on Earth is this going to pan out without a circuit breaker. The numbers are shocking

I think the government are waiting until the country is sufficiently worried about the infection/death rates to start calling for a firebreak. Boris doesn't want to look responsible.

@TheDailyCarbuncle

The point is that it is all a guess - the scientists have no more likelihood of being right than a random mumsnetter.

What absolutely ridiculous nonsense.

Sometimes I toy with the idea that someone in power is listening to a behavioural scientist that has realised that people need to have a glance at what would happen if the NHS was overrun before they comply with the actions necessary to prevent it being completely overrun. They realise that without seeing scenes of field hospitals open somewhere in Europe, people will call any action an overreaction. Their strategy is cleverly composed to slow down the rate at which we reach that point as much as the public will bear, so that when the public reaches the point when it is ready to comply, we do not overshoot hospital capacity by an unmanageable amount and end up with complete chaos.

Then I remember the government we actually have and realise that we are just blowing in the wind.

Problem is how many are going to refuse the vaccine? Because if comments on FB/news are anything to go by, about 50% of the population thinks it's load of shit and will refuse the vaccine in case they microchip us...

Of course the other thing is that they don't look at the implications and compliance, just things like the R will change by whatever if we shut pubs

Speaking to my friend in Glasgow, she says well, people will just drink at home instead. People don't always comply. These threads seem to assume we live in a perfect world.

@Iaminliquidform

yeah, not much faith in my GP surgery, I am missing my flu jab this year, as there is a shortage apparently

It's shortage of appointment slots, not vaccines. Just go to your local chemist. Our surgery kept telling us to phone up "next week" for an appointment as all slots were taken. My MIL's surgery were doing walk in and drive-through days so they didn't have a shortage of vaccines. I phoned our chemist who just basically said "yeah, we;ve loads, just call in, no appointment needed". It's badly managed GP surgeries causing the "shortage"!

[quote tootyfruitypickle]@rubbishatballet what are the current timings you’ve seen ? I know it was mid oct , do you think we’re close?[/quote]
Still tbc but a definite feeling that it's very close now. Plans are pretty mature and the pressure hasn't let up to get everything nailed down. Current best guess at work is mid November, but would emphasis that this is a guess! Suspect we will be given very little notice ahead of go live though.

If the R rate remains at 1 then this will continue for months. In 10 days that’s 3000-4000 deaths, in 100 days (about 3 months) that’s 30000-40000 deaths.

No. An R of 1 means the infections are growing linearly and not exponentially.

The situation is not the same everywhere though, those of us with very few cases (under 10 in a week) will have more hardships and yes deaths thrust upon us with no effect whatsoever on the virus because everyone is already conforming to the rules. Students (note only some plus some young adults) aside it's simply not spreading but there's already been one restaurant owner commit suicide according to local reports. Regional is definitely the best option for everyone because they won't have to find closed businesses here

Not in my surgery Badbunny - appointments but no vaccination. Told to rearrange through local chemist - rearranged for following week and was phoned 2 days before and told they'd run out, expecting more early November.

Who will pay for these circuit breakers?!!

@QueenPaws

Problem is how many are going to refuse the vaccine? Because if comments on FB/news are anything to go by, about 50% of the population thinks it's load of shit and will refuse the vaccine in case they microchip us...

I won't have the vaccine, not because I think I'll be micro chipped but because there are people who need it more than I do

@tootyfruitypickle

Also I have complete faith the military will be involved in vaccine roll out and it’ll happen fast .

Do you honestly that Covid is the only thing killing people?! Strange.

@yawnsvillex I think how effective it is will of course depend on how many people have it
I mean let's say 75% of people don't.. it won't be that effective. I'm more thinking of the people who won't have it because they don't believe in it/trust it etc etc
I'm shielding so sign me up

Yes our GP surgery has said no flu vaccinations for the under 65s or anyone who isn't already booked in, until November

OP I dont know - our settings had more cases today.

@sunflowers246

If the R rate remains at 1 then this will continue for months. In 10 days that’s 3000-4000 deaths, in 100 days (about 3 months) that’s 30000-40000 deaths.

No. An R of 1 means the infections are growing linearly and not exponentially.

An r of 1 means each 1 person who has it passes it on to 1 person. Really.

@nibdedibble

There’s no vaccine that’ll be ready anywhere near December. That’s six weeks away!

Last estimate I heard was end of summer 2021.

You are probably wrong on that

I highly doubt vaccines will be handed out to GP surgeries to deal with. I sincerely hope vaccination will be on a much bigger and more organised scale!

Re the Kate Bingham article: if the vaccine is only offered to people 50+ and younger ECV ones, then there may only need to be one major push.

Thereafter, it can be offered as a 50th birthday present from the NHS.

There is a theory that since SARS-Cov-2 is very similar to SARS-Cov-1, that immunity will be similarly long-lived. People who recovered from SARS were found to still have the memory T-cells 27 years later.

It doesn't matter if some people don't have the vaccine as long as the vulnerable do. I probably don't need it. DS doesn't need it. DH might as he's late 50s. The vulnerable get the flu vaccine, the rest of us don't unless we get it ourselves or through work.

But the idea of locking down until a vaccine is ready for roll-out - that could be a year or more!

I wonder this too. It will only be a week or two until deaths start to get really high again. I can’t see these current measures making much difference. Potentially we will be on an almost full lockdown again in only a few weeks time. I am not sure if it can be avoided? From what I understand the virus running out of control will have a worse impact on the economy than a controlled spread

The government will need to do something sooner rather than later.

As a pp said in 2 weeks deaths will likely be in the 300 to 400 per day range and hospitals in the nw will be under real strain and there are months to go to spring. It doesn't seem likely that tier 3 will bring r down below 1 like it needs to. Perhaps they will have to introduce tier 4 and close shops in those areas.

The government must know this though

whats a 'firebreaks'?

sorry, i genuinely don't now and just hopped on the end of this thread