How is this going to pan out without a firebreak?

[Starlight101]

I’ve just listening to a sage scientist on the radio. He spoke a lot of sense. He basically said that even if every part of the country went into Tier 3 now then that wouldn’t bring the R rate below one. It might get it to one but it’s more likely to remain above one. So in 2-3 weeks we can expect 300-400 deaths a day due to the current amount of infection in the population. If the R rate remains at 1 then this will continue for months. In 10 days that’s 3000-4000 deaths, in 100 days (about 3 months) that’s 30000-40000 deaths.

A circuit breaker would likely half the infection levels thus halving all those numbers above. He agreed it’s also easier for track and trace to do their thing with smaller numbers involved.

How on Earth is this going to pan out without a circuit breaker. The numbers are shocking

The point is that it is all a guess - the scientists have no more likelihood of being right than a random mumsnetter.

50% of the population targetted for Covid vaccination.
www.ft.com/content/d2e00128-7889-4d5d-84a3-43e51355a751
It will need two doses , most likely. Last year 15 million people were given flu vaccination, and they were hoping to double it this year to 30 million, which is a bit under 50% of the population, but as we all know there are shortages. I'm just pointing out that it's not a simple matter to roll out a vaccine, even if one does work.

I think firebreak might be to do with forest fires? Like making a space to out out a fire?

And the circuit breaker presumably to stop a circuit working? But not specific to diseases are they.

More bollocks I think

@StealthPolarBear

"Tier 3 is a joke. It's tier 2 with pub closures but Wetherspoons can stay open." In tier 2 you can see family and friends, in tier 3 you can't. That's the big difference surely.

It's totally unenforced though. I'm in a tier 3 area and people are still meeting up.

R0 is a guess? Do you know how many people are working on this and the systems in place to make as sure as they can that data is correct? Dear god just on a practical level you couldn’t keep them all quiet if it was just guesswork 😂

@Orangeblossom7777

Oh dear, I see there is no point in engaging further here. Good luck OP with your quest for multiple UK wide 'firebreaks'.

That’s a good idea. I’ll leave it here as well.

Maybe we’ll do a check in in 4 weeks time and see how the government’s strategy is working out and if the general consensus of the UK is that they fucked up yet again by not having a firebreak over half term like the other parts of the UK.

The economy isn’t a tap you can turn on and off at will. It’s probably more akin to a plant that you keep shoving in the cupboard. Eventually businesses will get past the point of revival.

You aren't making sense though OP. You say yourself that lots of areas have had high restrictions and haven't declined, but you seem to think that having these short UK wide lockdowns will somehow help.

I'm sorry but I don't think that will work.

But you will feel validated I suppose, as they won't do it and then you can blame it on that I suppose.

@TheDailyCarbuncle is correct in my view. Cases would not continue to rise exponentially.

@Starlight101 businesses cannot stop and restart every few weeks and if people fear that that will happen they cannot plan anything. This means businesses suffer even more and is leading to mass unemployment.

I am most unlikely to stop shopping whatever the cases in my area as there is no evidence to show that shopping is a main cause of transmission. I might avoid things like going to the cinema or restaurant but young people may still want to go and do these things and should be allowed to do so.
No political party is explaining how the debts building up from government borrowing are going to be repaid. It is easy for Keir Starmer to say lets have another lockdown and carry on furlough indefinitely without having to give any explanation as to the impact on the economy.

Although to be fair, we will probably see that places like Wales, who have gone ahead, will probably not see much difference in the long term.

@nibdedibble

R0 is a guess? Do you know how many people are working on this and the systems in place to make as sure as they can that data is correct? Dear god just on a practical level you couldn’t keep them all quiet if it was just guesswork 😂

Of course it's guesswork - there's nothing else it can be because not everyone is tested so there is absolutely no way to know how many people are actually infected at any one time. You can extrapolate from existing data but you have no idea if you're right or not. There's also no research being done (as far as I know) around factors directly relevant to transmission, such as identifying exactly where infection occurs. There is some very loose data about transmission in hospitals (which by the way is one of the main sources of infection) but in the community the way in which transmission occurs is very poorly understood. What some research has shown is that some people pass it on to many many people while others don't pass it on at all. In that situation R is a completely meaningless number.

@Cookerhood

50% of the population targetted for Covid vaccination. www.ft.com/content/d2e00128-7889-4d5d-84a3-43e51355a751 It will need two doses , most likely. Last year 15 million people were given flu vaccination, and they were hoping to double it this year to 30 million, which is a bit under 50% of the population, but as we all know there are shortages. I'm just pointing out that it's not a simple matter to roll out a vaccine, even if one does work.

I'm involved in Covid-19 mass vaccination programme planning and it is definitely going to be very different from the standard flu vaccination programme.

There is definitely research going into where transmission occurs (I have a good friend working on this!).

A guess is emphatically not the same as an estimate based on epidemiological principles

I don’t half feel sorry for the people who do actual work on this. (Two of my friends have had death threats, arguably worse than just being taken for idiots by a random Mumsnetter.)

Doesn't the vaccination program depend on what type of vaccine comes through first? Some require very cold temperatures - so only specialist places will be able to offer it so mass immunisations will be difficult.

@nibdedibble

R0 is a guess? Do you know how many people are working on this and the systems in place to make as sure as they can that data is correct? Dear god just on a practical level you couldn’t keep them all quiet if it was just guesswork 😂

Yeah, that's why the track and trace system was being done on a spreadsheet, hence the foul ups!

@ClaryFairchild

Doesn't the vaccination program depend on what type of vaccine comes through first? Some require very cold temperatures - so only specialist places will be able to offer it so mass immunisations will be difficult.

Ultra low temp storage is being accounted for in the planning.

@Badbadbunny Spreadsheet clusterfuck was not the people doing the research

I would suggest you have no idea how the back end of any of this is working (or not, in the case of the TTI results being lost)

A proper firebreak might work. But we can't have one. That's because hospitals, care homes, food shops, delivery drivers, warehouses, emergency services, etc etc need to stay operational, so a firebreak wouldn't stop the infections in those environments. Unless people wanting a firebreak mean no deliveries, no food shops, care/hospital workers not allowed to go home between shifts etc - because that's exactly what it would need for a "proper" firebreak.

@Iremembertheelderlykoreanlady

The NHS manages the flu vaccine every winter. This is no different. It will not take years 🙄🙄

And to whoever said it upthread re differences between tier 2 and 3...you can still see friends/family in tier 3 just not inside or in a garden. Go for a walk!

Oh can you, that's good. We're in tier two and can only see family outside, I assumed by tier three that was taken away. In that case I agree there's not much between then.

@nibdedibble

They are talking about rolling vaccinations (like they do with flu).

It’s never going to be a magic bullet. 66million of us once a year (or twice, I read somewhere). It will be years. We can’t manage the admin for a start, that is clear.

I'm not living like this for years. No way. Stop with the scaremongering. My mental health is fucked as it is.

@kittensarecute Sorry. I’m just furious at the government. This is so stressful. It’s so important that I imagine they will get something in place as soon as they can - it would be a total vote winner so they are motivated at least!

It feels to me like we’re on the brink of a vaccine breakthrough.

I wonder if govt are holding for this and then planning to impose total lockdown until vaccine programme can be rolled out - as in - one last push folks?

agree we have to do something and it is difficult , but most people are dying because they are already ill.
Full lockdowns, firebreaks will end us. Hospitality will not recover and many businesses, including our family-run pub (3 members of family) will go to the wall. Our 6 staff will lose their income , we will all be claiming UC in the short term (hopefully), we will no longer pay taxes, etc, be able to spend in other businesses, may even lose their house. This times many thousands of other businesses in the UK will devastate the economy for years to come.

Also I have complete faith the military will be involved in vaccine roll out and it’ll happen fast .

@rubbishatballet what are the current timings you’ve seen ? I know it was mid oct , do you think we’re close?