Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

. For those where communication details were available, 75.1% were reached and asked to self-isolate.
Taking into account all contacts identified, 59.6% were reached.

I am still not understanding how the fck is anyone expecting any type of compliance with a random stranger calling and saying stuff???? Especially with all the bullshit that's been flying around TTR, i wonder if even a very small fraction comply.

Btw: is there any data on actual compliance? Does anyone follow up really? Or is it just a phone call where ppl can say sod off easily or lie about where they are?

I understand the Asia/Europe cultural divide, but at what point will the western civilization realise that our personal freedom in spite of everything will only work with a minimum level of intelligence within the community which we obviously have not yet achieved. Not talking just about Uk....

Many more tables of data for testing, t&t for this last recorded week, 8-14 September on

www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-england-and-coronavirus-testing-uk-statistics-8-october-to-14-october

Thanks red, I didn't know that; my friend's wife is Japanese and very high up in her organisation so she's clearly unusual. It's not a useful comparison but there are countries who do value childcare and women's contributions highly.

I'm from Hungary, moved 9 yrs ago. But in the 80's I live in Iraq, moved back to Budapest late 80s

It might have been the baby :) Parents with babies were prioritized in those days. They were the first to be let up the bus/tram. Now? Your lucky if they let you up (not joking, many routes actually either ban prams on the basis of not having space -bs-, or operating old busses where you can't fit a pram through the doorway)

I prefer Lake Balaton tbh. My parent have a summer house there and it is way more peaceful. But Budapest actually has thing to do and I still love the architecture of that city :)

@NeurotrashWarrior

Thanks red, I didn't know that; my friend's wife is Japanese and very high up in her organisation so she's clearly unusual. It's not a useful comparison but there are countries who do value childcare and women's contributions highly.

Examples pls. I can't think of one. i can only think of women in power who had the opportunities and strengths to get there on a personal level, not as a built in feature of society. But I hope I'm totally wrong

Thanks TheSunIsStillShining, that is sad, I loved the Hungarian attitude to children. Lake Balaton is beautiful but so is Budapest, a holiday taking in both is a real treat. We hired a house right by the lake.

If you didn't test as was your duty in Japan I suspect there would be much more social shaming / shunning.

Absolutely. I remember discussions of that on previous threads.

swg yes more cross mixing in holiday clubs over half term is a recipe for disaster!

@BigChocFrenzy

There may be higher levels of jobs which are riskier wrt Covid e.g. more f2f and fewer able to WfH, more food processing plants

but yes, as often with limited data about people, there is always the danger of going off on a false trail

My observation of whats happened in and around G Manchester is rates and numbers shot up first in the most affluent wards. I guess that would be the driving group of the most affluent group of 18 - 25 year olds.

They went down a bit after the inital introduction of restrictions.

Then numbers started to go up again after a while. Then a stablisation around when students go to university.

Then another much slower gradual upwards trend.

The trend right now, with more strict restrictions from a couple of weeks back kicking in seems to be that the numbers are either just peaking in these areas or just beginning to reduce.

There's a different pattern that seems to be present in other areas though, with more of an sustained and sharper increase going on which is less start/stop.

I note about these most affluent areas that they tend to be places known for being 'commuter' areas where you work further from your office/work place than the more 'provinical town' demographic which is less affluent.

Thats why you see Trafford and Stockport doing much better now than anywhere else in G Manchester. The pattern is not dissimilar in the southern part of Warrington. GENERALLY speaking south of the Manchester Ship canal is more affluent and GENERALLY speaking its currently looking better than North of it. And there are historic differences in the demographic profiles and occupations along the same line.

So I THINK its a distinct blue collar worker/white collar worker division that certainly is having some sort of impact.

It would be interesting to see data and if it indeed does reflect my observation and the levels of types of employment on a ward by ward basis compared to covid rates and increases in rates. I know the make up and demographics of the NW better than most after years of looking at election data but I am guessing still. I do think that the working from home factor is particularly important in terms of what is happening and it would show up in data though.

I think it also reflects patterns of behavior - eg if you work from home you feel safe there and worried about leaving the house, but if you work outside the house you've a much more relaxed attitude to exposure because 'hell you are exposed everyday'.

Having said that I also think there is some shifting in the behaviour in people working from home too though. A sense of almost claustrophobia and wanting to get out more. Antecdote alert. Yesterday at the pub we were talking to the barman we were friendly which and he was saying he was seeing people now coming in during the afternoon to work and have a pint, just for a bit of company, which he hasn't see before. And as pubs are looking to diversify for more income there's been a few places advertising it as an option. I don't know the degree to which this is happening and whether it will become a marked trend, but it wouldn't surprise me.

@RedToothBrush that is interesting from
Arlene Foster, but I think we need to also look at it in the context of the political backdrop in NI - Arlene Foster’s DUP were vehemently against the “circuit breaker” or lockdown (at least publicly) there’s some more detail in this article if anyone is interested www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-54566225

Back on the economic activity @IrenetheQuaint, @Plbrookes and others...

Correlation is of course not causation, and there are only 9 regions. The deprivation data from PHE that @BigChocFrenzy had kindly added into the new OP include other important correlations, I like to use the map view (sorry but I can't easily screenshot so you'll need to click links):

1. Cities have the highest deprivation scores (as well as Covid cases), see deprivation map here: fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/G8UcFiedVE#page/8/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000002/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-0_map-ao-4
2. Same areas in general for poorer health-related quality of life: fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/G8UcFiedVE#page/8/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000002/iid/91195/age/27/sex/4/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-0_map-ao-4
3. Less correlation with overcrowded households currently, which is interesting, but of course this won't show where the extended family are in one local area (in and out of houses with childcare etc) rather than literally in one house? fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/G8UcFiedVE#page/8/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000002/iid/90416/age/-1/sex/4/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-0_map-ao-4.

[quote MRex]Back on the economic activity @IrenetheQuaint, @Plbrookes and others...

Correlation is of course not causation, and there are only 9 regions. The deprivation data from PHE that @BigChocFrenzy had kindly added into the new OP include other important correlations, I like to use the map view (sorry but I can't easily screenshot so you'll need to click links):

1. Cities have the highest deprivation scores (as well as Covid cases), see deprivation map here: fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/G8UcFiedVE#page/8/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000002/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-0_map-ao-4
2. Same areas in general for poorer health-related quality of life: fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/G8UcFiedVE#page/8/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000002/iid/91195/age/27/sex/4/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-0_map-ao-4
3. Less correlation with overcrowded households currently, which is interesting, but of course this won't show where the extended family are in one local area (in and out of houses with childcare etc) rather than literally in one house? fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/G8UcFiedVE#page/8/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000002/iid/90416/age/-1/sex/4/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-0_map-ao-4.[/quote] .... Screenshots of those very informative maps you found, for your example of Barking & Dagenham:

• Health-related quality of life for age 65+
• Deprivation score, all ages
• Overcrowded households, persons

Sorry it always picks Barking when it's opened, so I just leave it there. It should make no difference to full country maps.

"this won't show where the extended family are in one local area (in and out of houses with childcare etc)"

This is one of several social factors that are obviously important, but where it is very difficult to collect data

We can consider what factors have data, but there are the unknowns
and as a certain US defence Secretary once said, the "unknown unknowns"

These unknowns / unquantifiables are also one of the causes of modelling inaccuracies

From the deprivation data for PHE
fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/G8UcFiedVE#page/10/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000002/ati/102/are/E08000015/iid/92313/age/204/sex/4/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-1_cin-ci-4

Deprivation / % of 16 - 64 year olds in work for England.

I've added highlights for each north west area to make them clearer and how they compare with the rest of the country. If you then compare this with the places that have the highest % of cases particularly in terms of per 100,000 there is a distinct correlation and the North West compares particularly poorly with the rest of the country. And whats also notable is that most of the other outliers on this, are also places where there appears to have been hotspots.

Yes. On the types of workplace by region, I feel like I already posted this some threads ago but maybe it got lost, or I got distracted by a toddler...

I wondered how analogous general injuries are; if we ignore construction as largely outside and office/ professional/ IT as largely work from home... if you look at injury, most workplaces with closer contact show up strongly.
www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/regions/index.htm
In the data tables, the clearly-named (!) "LFSINJREG" (regions) and "RIDREG" (local authority) shows no real correlation per 100,000; Yorkshire and East Midlands take top rankings.

While I'm aware that "no correlation" isn't exciting, it does rule out one metric that there aren't usually less safe working environments.

Warrington at LSOA level - 7 days to 18th Oct, cases and positivity levels by deprivation decile. A lot less clear cut than I might have imagined - which supports the argument that insight, preferably local, is needed to support / interpret / challenge data. Positivity link looks greater than cases per 100,000. The over 65s column in the table is simply the over 65s percentage of each LSOA population, not the positivity rate for the over 65s.

Ideas on better graphic presentation always welcomed the ones attached can't get any worse Likewise time series would be good to see the pattern of growth.

boys3, where is that data from. I think I'm being thick.

Boris and Chancellor are giving a briefing now....

boys3 That's really useful data, which I haven't seen before
Could you post the source
Presentation format looks fine to me

@PrayingandHoping

Boris and Chancellor are giving a briefing now....

Thanks. Lots more funding outlined by Sunak

oh ffs (as usual) per bj speech

"Instead he is going for a balanced approach - between the Scylla of a lockdown and the Charybdis of uncontrolled virus spread."

Who does he think he is talking to? Academics in a lit major conference? Why the frekk can't this gov speak in clear messages that are not either 3 words or scylla overkills? What's wrong with these people????

Valance saying 312-362k infected in report for previous week
ONS tomorrow (still looking at the past) expected to be higher

Modelling consensus is 53-90k new infections per day

Looks about 6,500 currently in hospital with Covid

R

Mixing my Classics, but whose playing the Cassandra role at today’s talking at us event? Cassandra was of course correct in her warnings.