Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

@BigChocFrenzy

Valance saying 312-362k infected in report for previous week ONS tomorrow (still looking at the past) expected to be higher

Modelling consensus is 53-90k new infections per day

interesting - the PHE report out today has this, showing that recorded infections were approximately 90k in both Week 41 and 42 (12-18 Oct); which suggests around 25% of cases are being picked up via testing.

The report also clearly shows that the rate of increase slowed in Week 42 over Week 41 overall, with a drop in positivity rates for 10-19s, which follows the idea that the Uni students were a big driver initially but that wave is largely passed.

@boys3

Mixing my Classics, but whose playing the Cassandra role at today’s talking at us event? Cassandra was of course correct in her warnings.

That's surely Vallance's job!

SAGE, off-stage

@boys3 - Scylla and Cassandra are direct competitors in IT, both noSQL high performance databases. So Cassandra will be on the side of Charybdis, in a my-enemy's-enemy reading. I didn't hear which he referred to as Scylla or Charybdis, I'm guessing that Covid is the monster and the economy is the whirlpool?

Slide to accompany Press Conf

Very prompt

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/928812/Presssconferenceslidess-Thursdayy22Octoberr.pdf

Report published 22nd October 2020
Cases data from week 13th-19th October 2020
Data extracted covering testing up to 19th October 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 2829, a decrease of 605 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 568 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 18.7%.

Between 14th-20th October 2020 there were 191 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 32% (n=61) were Covid-19 deaths.

which suggests around 25% of cases are being picked up via testing

This seems unlikely to me, unless there's a lot of testing of suspected asymptomatic positives, which seems a huge waste of resources, although it would explain a high positivity rate in tests.

Many people will live with enough other people that one of them is likely infected - but they should not be being tested (just isolating) so that should double the infected without a test.

So that means only two other cases for each identified one, I am very surprised about that, I can't see how that manages to get to an R of 1.2-1.5 so easily - you have to assume the identified 50% (in my model) would have an R well below 1, which means the other 50% would need an R higher than the probably R0 of 3?

Must admit I am very please and releaved at the sanity in deciding to finally give T2 areas financial support and to backdate it given the correlation between % not in work and deprivation in the areas with the highest number of cases.

Its about time.

Do we actually have the numbers for today in amongst all this sleight of hand and flummery?

On that note, where is it we find the PHE slides to accompany their weekly report? the one that actually breaks down the educational settings? Someone shared it last week.

Piggy
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Thanks red!

What are today's figures?

@sirfredfredgeorge - it depends what the true number of asymptomatic positives are. There has been a lot of debate going anywhere from 15% to 80% based on different metrics, countries' different tests, etc. Part of the difficulty is people being infectious while presymptomatic and testing positive late when past the infectious stage, either of which can be labelled "asymptomatic" when they aren't. Also Pillar 1 of course is still testing a lot of people who may still be asymptomatic, maybe a theory can be developed by considering the different positivity rates between pillar 1 and pillar 2.
(Also seems like fresher prank this year was getting a covid test, then when rates were high they tested the rest of the halls / flats, which would be most likely to identify asymptomatic cases.)
I find it tricky to assess theories when positivity rates are over 3%, I just view those higher rates as being out of control, where the true number is too hard to guess at.

Wow those slides actually do what so many of us want this week : they must ahve been listening when we said they should break it down into year groups.

MRex will be interested in these figures, I reckon, as will any teacher.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928749/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W43_FINAL.pdf

@sirfredfredgeorge

which suggests around 25% of cases are being picked up via testing

This seems unlikely to me, unless there's a lot of testing of suspected asymptomatic positives, which seems a huge waste of resources, although it would explain a high positivity rate in tests.

Many people will live with enough other people that one of them is likely infected - but they should not be being tested (just isolating) so that should double the infected without a test.

So that means only two other cases for each identified one, I am very surprised about that, I can't see how that manages to get to an R of 1.2-1.5 so easily - you have to assume the identified 50% (in my model) would have an R well below 1, which means the other 50% would need an R higher than the probably R0 of 3?

Not sure I get that - In real life that R is hugely skewed - a few people pass to a lot, many don't pass it on at all, which makes the maths all funny ;-)

Looking at the data, ratio of identified cases to ONS actual estimated cases in the community has been running at about a third for sept/early Oct and about 25% for the latest week. There's a lot of variance in there of course hence the "about"....!

Interesting new addition to this week's PHE data.

Number of positive cases by educational year group (by age)

The nursery part on those figures state 1 (1) with outbreaks in brackets for the North East but I know 3 in my area alone

It's also got 0 for the NE & NW unis?

The schools data is case rates per 100,000 population (not actually number of cases), fwiw.

Interestingly showing a drop (or at least a levelling) in all age groups, not just the Uni students.

@Shitfuckoh

The nursery part on those figures state 1 (1) with outbreaks in brackets for the North East but I know 3 in my area alone

It's also got 0 for the NE & NW unis?

Which document are you looking at?

Not started update even... are they looking for the sofa?

The PHE one piggy posted - sorry. The Influenza and Covid 19 Surveillance graphs.

Although it does say the latest week will be underestimated so that would likely explain it.

@PatriciaHolm

The schools data is case rates per 100,000 population (not actually number of cases), fwiw.

Interestingly showing a drop (or at least a levelling) in all age groups, not just the Uni students.

Is there not a breakdown by number of cases from pg 22? Agree it looks like it's levelling

Although that could be the underestimate shitohfuck mentioned? Need to have a proper look

@Shitfuckoh

The PHE one piggy posted - sorry. The Influenza and Covid 19 Surveillance graphs.

ah I see! thanks. That does seem odd, though it may be down to timing? That data is for week 42, Oct 12-18 so maybe the Uni outbreaks count as having started before that....