Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Belgium has recorded its highest-ever number of daily COVID-19 hospital admissions (689; first-wave maximum was 629).
www.demorgen.be/nieuws/absoluut-dagrecord-van-ziekenhuisopnames-verbroken-met-689-patienten-het-ziet-er-echt-niet-goed-uit~bf326c1d/?

Belgium population size is approximately 11.5 million or roughly just over one fifth of England.

MRex Median 5 days from infection to symptoms, 4 days to admission, 7 days stay; so 16 days. But, if you catch it from a family member then add 5 days = 21. In practice, lots who don't make it stay longer and during wave 1 it looked like a 1 month lag. I think I'm tired but I can't work out why you add 5 days if you catch it from a family member.

@PatriciaHolm

Part of what may be going on with deaths is, I suspect, related to increased widespread testing in hospitals.

There was some data earlier in the thread about hospital acquired infections, and infections in those being admitted with Covid but for something else. The former was "no more than 1/5" and the latter "no more than 1/7". That means that maybe 30-35% of "admissions" are not people ill with Covid, but people who are already in hospital but acquire CV there and people who are ill enough with something else to be admitted but also test positive.

If these people die in hospital within 28 days of their test, they count as "covid deaths" even if CV wasn't the reason they died (entirely possible, given their hospital admission was for something else). So we may be seeing an increased percentage of deaths coming from this group now, as testing in hospitals will be picking up infections even if they aren't a problem for the patient.

I think that's very unlikely to be the cause as there has been widespread and routine testing of hospital patients since March/ April.

I think this is the expected "baked in " deaths following on the higher community prevalence in recent weeks.

France
Well after 52,000 new cases on Sunday ( a whole 4 days after our health minister told us we’d see 50,000 per days in 15 days time ), France has recorded 523 deaths in 24 hours.

There’s currently an emergency summit happening and announcements of new measures tomorrow night. We’ve had a curfew since Friday night where I live, I’m expecting things to get much stricter.

Also, the proportion of "Covid deaths" that have Covid as "present on the death certificate" (as opposed to "cause of death") according to PHE weekly reports on excess mortality has risen from around 8% up to end August to around 28% now. Which would fit in with there being an increased number now of people dying with Covid but not necessarily of it (though of course it may have contributed to their death).

Unfortunately PHE deaths - care home, mostly - seem to be increasing as a % of deaths too.

Re the deaths with covid not of it in hospital I would say a difference between now and April is more people always die in the winter in hospitals so you would expect this to happen more in the winter than in April. Interestingly the ons still said today that mortality in hospitals was down on the five year average (although those figures lag obviously) but it would suggest that up to last week covid wasn’t killing a lot of people who wouldn’t have died anyway in hospital settings. They did depressingly find care home deaths are above average though and I do fear that an issue with the death figures may be it getting back into care homes. Deaths at home are also above average still but i Do feel that isn’t being driven by covid but by a lack of people coming forward with other health needs.

Sorry, but out of left field but this has just been made available showing the various lockdown restrictions and case numbers per 100,000 for a Leicester. As it's the only city that's consistently been under some form of additional restriction since March and schools went back a week earlier than the rest of England I think the rise and fall is interesting to see.

You can see that the lowest point was the end of summer holiday, children went back to school 26th August and within 2 weeks case numbers had over doubled with a steady rise from that point to current.

Sorry pic is blurry, it's here twitter.com/covidleics/status/1321222208283418624?s=21

We already have over 50,000 cases per day. ONS previously estimated 53k-90k earlier this month and it would be higher by now.

Apparently, the estimate is for 500 or so deaths a day for the UK, for an indefinite period, maybe months.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/27/second-covid-wave-forecast-deadly-first/

@ancientgran - the family member starts the cycle getting infected and 5 days until symptoms (and infectious, though perhaps that should be 4 days). They infect the one who goes on to be hospitalised and die, so it takesan extra 4-5 days from increased restrictions to that person dying.

I seem to recall that day 10 post symptoms was discussed as a time when it was obvious if things were going badly because of lung issues, but that is much longer than all the hospital timeframes I can find, and I can't find any evidence for it apart from my memory.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/28/dashboard-designed-to-chart-englands-covid-19-response-finds-major-gaps-in-data

Dashboard designed to chart England's Covid-19 response finds major gaps in data

"For example, there is no routine data collected on how well requests for 14-day isolation are adhered to, rendering it essentially impossible to know how effective NHS Test and Trace is in reducing transmission. The number of people isolating with symptoms in England is also unknown, and there is also no data on those who need or are receiving any kind of support, the researchers said....

“I think we should trust people with data,” Pagel added. “If we ended up with thousands of armchair statisticians then that would be great. I feel like our problem as a population is people are not engaging with data, not engaging with evidence enough and if we can encourage that then we should go for it.” "

@FingonTheValiant I feel for you hope the cases slow down with any added measures

I feel like this is a really stupid question, so apologies, but what would the 'normal' number of deaths per day be at this time of year? I'm wondering about the ability of undertaking services to cope if this continues for months.

I think PatriciaHolm andQasd are correct about hospital deaths. They are testing everyone now and if you die within 28 days of a positive test you are recorded as a covid death even if your cause of death was something else. From experience of our local hospital geriatric dept there are 80/90+ yr olds with dementia and other serious illnesses who have asymptomatic covid only discovered because everyone tested. It would be interesting to see the data broken down, not just by age but whether the person was symptomatic etc too.

@Motorina

I feel like this is a really stupid question, so apologies, but what would the 'normal' number of deaths per day be at this time of year? I'm wondering about the ability of undertaking services to cope if this continues for months.

The ONS are a great source for this data in England and Wales.

For the latest week released (week ending 16 October 2020 or Week 42)

The number of deaths registered in week 42 in 2020 was 10,534

It's 6.8% over the five-year average which was 9865

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020

They did depressingly find care home deaths are above average though and I do fear that an issue with the death figures may be it getting back into care homes

Did they give stats on causes? many care home people have been even more isolated from family than normal for many months (not that they're often full of social contacts of course!) there's various studies showing that isolation in elderly increases risk of death significantly, and care home life expectancy isn't high anyway.

Motorina ~10,000 deaths a week is "normal", less in summer, more in winter with the flu peaks (in the new year normally) often being a few thousand more than that.

the family member starts the cycle getting infected and 5 days until symptoms (and infectious, though perhaps that should be 4 days). They infect the one who goes on to be hospitalised and die, so it takesan extra 4-5 days from increased restrictions to that person dying. Thanks, I was reading it as if you caught it off a family member it was an extra 5 days before hospitalisation, I couldn't work out why it would take 5 days longer just because of who you caught it off.

there's various studies showing that isolation in elderly increases risk of death significantly, and care home life expectancy isn't high anyway. I would think the elderly in their own homes with support would be suffering isolation much more than the elderly in care homes. Obviously some homes are better than others, some are better funded, but all the care homes I know have activities, communal meals if residents well enough and obviously care in their own rooms.

My aunt has advanced dementia and is now too ill for group activities so she gets 1 to 1 with the activities co-ordinator. As an example a couple of weeks ago I had a photo of her in the homes hair salon with the activities co-ordinator doing her hair (visiting hairdresser not going in now) I've also arrived for a visit when she was agitated and a young member of staff was sitting with her massaging her hands and arms with some nice lotion to help her relax. Compare that with someone in their own home with a carer coming in 3 times a day for 15 minutes. That was my aunt's situation before going into the care home, I visited when I could but I'm 200 miles away so couldn't do it all the time.

I would think the elderly in their own homes with support would be suffering isolation much more than the elderly in care homes

I agree - and deaths in homes are up too. I just don't think it's as simple as saying care home activities improve things though, isolation isn't as simple as just having activities. Being cut off from family. But of course all of that is irrelevant if the deaths are COVID.

It isn't just activities though, things like the staff member sitting talking quietly to my aunt while massaging her hands and arms showed a very positive relationship. It can be hard to accept that this "stranger" can now be much more in tune with relatives than we are.

Of course she was a stranger to me but for aunt who has been in that home for 3 years seeing her several days a week she isn't a stranger. I know some families can visit daily but for lots of us we have to accept that the staff and residents in the home are the "new family" or "second family" and personally I appreciate that but I realise people find it hard.

Many thanks to everyone keeping the thread going.

Is there anywhere that does a comparison of the Zoe app estimates for cases in an area with the actual data?

@sirfredfredgeorge

They did depressingly find care home deaths are above average though and I do fear that an issue with the death figures may be it getting back into care homes

Did they give stats on causes? many care home people have been even more isolated from family than normal for many months (not that they're often full of social contacts of course!) there's various studies showing that isolation in elderly increases risk of death significantly, and care home life expectancy isn't high anyway.

Motorina ~10,000 deaths a week is "normal", less in summer, more in winter with the flu peaks (in the new year normally) often being a few thousand more than that.

As far as I can see, there were 90 "excess" deaths in care homes in Week 42, and 106 deaths involving Covid.

Excess deaths in care homes have been up and down over the past few weeks - the previous 4 weeks were negative, the one before that positive, the one before that strongly negative. Overall since week 25 there have been 1,608 fewer deaths than expected, but that trend is likely now to have reversed.

[quote herecomesthsun]We already have over 50,000 cases per day. ONS previously estimated 53k-90k earlier this month and it would be higher by now.

Apparently, the estimate is for 500 or so deaths a day for the UK, for an indefinite period, maybe months.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/27/second-covid-wave-forecast-deadly-first/[/quote]
I can't see this without subscribing - are you able to give a source for the data behind it?

So many newspaper links now seem just to be 'click bait' with very little substance behind them other than he said, she said, an insider says, we understand, a leaked report ....... .

Want to say thank you to everyone for keeping this thread going but if BCF and the other data debaters who seem to have left too are lurking please please come back!

'The COVID Response Evaluation Dashboard (COVID RED) presents available statistics from Public Health England (PHE), the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the National Health Service (NHS) and also highlights where more data are needed.'

This looks great:

covid.i-sense.org.uk/

Wow @Edujaded where did you find that?

It looks very interesting and potentially useful, but it worries me that it's completely anonymous!