Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

If hospitalisations increase much, then I predict another method change to only count one positive test in the last 4 weeks by the way.

Well they could say the capacity is 20 million but if they are doing under 300,000 it doesn't mean anything. It is horrible to be in a position where you have no confidence in anything the govt says. If Boris Johnson told me it was Tuesday I'd go and check and I wouldn't check with Matt Hancock.

The sort of thing needed regionally are the comparison figures of all school staff positive cases per 100k and just teachers positive cases per 100k plotted in a graph with scale adjustment to compare against regional cases per 100,000. That would very quickly show trends. If anyone can get the data. I would imagine they are guarding that information precisely because it would very quickly show trends but maybe that is more of my paranoia.

@ancientgran
If Boris Johnson told me it was Tuesday I'd go and check and I wouldn't check with Matt Hancock.

@Augustbreeze For a horrible moment I thought you were going to tell me it wasn't Tuesday.

.

Deaths don’t look as bad when you see them dated like this not on when they were announced

[quote Augustbreeze]@ancientgran
If Boris Johnson told me it was Tuesday I'd go and check and I wouldn't check with Matt Hancock.

[/quote]
DP was telling me about a book the other day, written by a Hollywood Producer about Hollywood, called..

"Hello, He Lied".

Nw file added to the about the data section of the dashboard. Cases by specimen date by 5 yr age bands for each LA by day back to 16th March. They have helpfully put in columns showing the rolling date - not sure if that is the cumulative or seven day rolling figure.

"COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group regular update of England hospital admissions and deaths, starting with admissions. After a brief plateau just below 1,000, we've seen a big jump today to 1,186, with the moving average now 992. The doubling time is just over 2 weeks."

"The regional picture continues to show the NW growth has slowed, up just 10% in a week. Indeed, the NE has now caught up, and continues to show a fast trajectory."

"Recent gradients are roughly the same, except for the NW which has nearly levelled off. Otherwise there's similar growth everywhere. The Midlands is around a week behind the NE, London a further 10 days behind."

Full thread with graphs:
mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1321145344730763271

Nw = new

Thanks that's helpful @Reastie. So today's figures are much more 'catch-up' than recent? Less levelling off than some thought then?

Useful graphs as always from RP131 on Twitter. Deaths still seem to be on a "doubling every 10 days" track. I think it is cases we are hoping might be starting to level off slightly/the rate of growth might be slowing.

Even if cases are stabilising death rates won't follow for several more weeks due to the lag.

Oops, graph didn't post!

How long does it take for hospital figures to level off/start dropping? Is it 2 to 3 weeks?

Given that outcomes for those hospitalised have improved since March and the cases are not currently as prevalent in the older age groups, the high number of deaths we're beginning to see, as per ONS report, appear to indicate that cases must be far higher than we're picking up. I appreciate that it's of little informative use comparing cases now to March, but we can compare deaths and hospitalisations. I think we're about to see things getting suddenly overwhelmed, sadly.

@Edujaded that occurred to me too, increased deaths needs to be seen in the context of more people becoming sick but pulling through.

Yes, I have been surprised by how steep the rise in deaths has been. Is there any indication of why this may be?

Median 5 days from infection to symptoms, 4 days to admission, 7 days stay; so 16 days. But, if you catch it from a family member then add 5 days = 21. In practice, lots who don't make it stay longer and during wave 1 it looked like a 1 month lag.

There were more care home outbreaks in the last 2 weeks surveillance reports, that may explain the deaths.

I think statistically, higher number of deaths can only be as a result of very high cases, beyond what is reported/picked up.

I wonder if it may also relate to people suffering later fatal complications following a mild experience of covid initially, but then suffering a heart attack/stroke. I wonder if we will attribute complications from a covid infection to the excess deaths we saw in the spring. It might be a higher proportion of deaths, where people were not previously tested, are now being picked up as covid. All speculation at the moment, as the data presents more questions than answers.

@Edujaded

I wonder if it may also relate to people suffering later fatal complications following a mild experience of covid initially, but then suffering a heart attack/stroke. I wonder if we will attribute complications from a covid infection to the excess deaths we saw in the spring. It might be a higher proportion of deaths, where people were not previously tested, are now being picked up as covid. All speculation at the moment, as the data presents more questions than answers.

Don't the figures only include people who have died within 28 days of a positive Covid test, though?

@IrenetheQuaint yes, they do now but back in spring testing was very different. So, you would expect more deaths for those treating positive within 28 are being picked up where they might have previously been missed.

Hi @Haplap, totally agree with that, I was just querying the suggestion that some of the deaths we are seeing now are due to complications in people who had Covid a while ago (unless I have misunderstood the point here).

Part of what may be going on with deaths is, I suspect, related to increased widespread testing in hospitals.

There was some data earlier in the thread about hospital acquired infections, and infections in those being admitted with Covid but for something else. The former was "no more than 1/5" and the latter "no more than 1/7". That means that maybe 30-35% of "admissions" are not people ill with Covid, but people who are already in hospital but acquire CV there and people who are ill enough with something else to be admitted but also test positive.

If these people die in hospital within 28 days of their test, they count as "covid deaths" even if CV wasn't the reason they died (entirely possible, given their hospital admission was for something else). So we may be seeing an increased percentage of deaths coming from this group now, as testing in hospitals will be picking up infections even if they aren't a problem for the patient.