Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

22885 positives and deaths 367. According to BBC.

Dashboard so 20890 so not sure which is correct.

Deaths are high even for a Tuesday aren't they.

22885 on dashboard now.

Yes it agrees with BBC now.

A big jump in test capacity 447,723 today. was the target 500,000 by the end of October?

Did the BBC also say Leeds hospital was also just allowing emergency ops only? I just caught the tail end and can't find any data or info on this?

@GetAMoveOnTroodon
I noticed that. Yes it was targetting the end of october for 500,000.

I really hope the extra capacity means they can speed up the testing even if they don't use all the capacity. Surely T&T is a bit moot if contacts don 't get traced until they get a positive result which seems to be 2-4 days after their test for most people ATM.

Deaths very worryingly high. I am guessing that this time of year deaths in care homes etc and among the elderly are much higher than in the summer which is possibly a factor? Not that it's not very worrying though.

Meanwhile it's worth listening to yesterday's BBC newscast with Fergus Walsh (I think) who has been visiting the main hospital in Newcastle. Broadly they were saying that great strides have been made with medicine since the spring and generally speaking they expect far less people that come into hospital to be ventilated than to die. They also expect those admitted to be discharged more quickly. Very busy, but not at all a doom and gloom scenario, given that they always have severe winter pressures anyway.

Long term lurker and grateful to people who regularly update.

I notice the capacity has increased greatly today, which is obviously a good thing. However I also notice that the actual number of tests is lower than previous days by a fair bit. Why would this be the case? Surely it can’t be just not required yesterday when numbers of positive cases are increasing daily. Seems a bit suspect to me.

@MRex

You are right *@PatriciaHolm*. I'd missed BBC report having 16th as a date and thought they'd also seen the data.

NW had 39,738 cases in those 10 days. 710 = 1.8% of the cases.
Overall England had 140934 positive cases in the 10 days 7th-16th October. 2029 = 1.4% of all cases.
Teacher numbers are tricky because they track back to FTE, but let's agree that doesn't matter if we round numbers. 453,813 teachers in 56m England population = 0.81%
265,167 TAs plus teachers is 718,980 = 1.3%
945,805 staff working in schools = 1.7%.
So, it really matters to understand relative infection risk whether these are teachers, teachers + TAs, or any school staff.
It makes no difference on the inequalities question, because that is most influenced by student absence rates regardless of whether it is because of a student case, teacher case or other isolation.

Interesting regional difference spotted:
England minus North West is 1.3% of all positive cases minus NW positive cases.
So teachers are 28% more likely to be postive in NW compared with everyone else than other parts of the country, are they that much more likely to be tested than general population? Or is this risks remaining very low while cases are low but rising out of proportion when community cases get high? (Can't answer without data for other regions, did we have figures regionally for NI to compare Derry's rate for any similar effect?)

I approached your data from a different angle and did a different ratio, Mrex.

NW cases as % of England cases 28%
NW teachers as % of England Teachers 35%

I read this as saying "When cases are high, teachers are disproportionately affected."

It does make you wonder what capacity means. I always think it is suspect but then I don't trust them so that might just be my paranoia.

Leeds and Edinburgh hospitals cancel non-urgent ops to make room for Covid-19 patients as top surgeon warns cancelled NHS ops are only 'going to happen more'

• The Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh has postponed surgery to 'manage capacity'
• It follows hospitals in Bradford, Liverpool, Birmingham and Nottingham
• The situation is beginning to mirror that of March and April
• The Royal College of Surgeons of England president predicts more cancellations
• Patients waiting for hip and knee operations, for example, will not be prioritised

Daily Fail link (sorry)www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8884125/Now-Edinburgh-hospital-cancels-non-urgent-procedures-make-room-Covid-patients.html

@CKBJ That's the weekend effect - tests reported as processed on Monday 26th are likely to have been taken on the weekend, which always sees a drop. If you look back at reported tests for 19th, Pillar 2, you'll see it was a significant drop on the day before.

My take is, teaching is not a dangerous job - so long as no-one in your class has Covid!

@PatriciaHolm thank you

In other news, DH has a telephone appointment with his Cardiologist in a couple of weeks time (follow up from blue-light admission in April). Thank God it's not in-person if it happens.

Good Luck pussycat .

@RigaBalsam

Did the BBC also say Leeds hospital was also just allowing emergency ops only? I just caught the tail end and can't find any data or info on this?

This is from the Twitter feed for Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust :

"We have 263 patients in our beds who have tested positive for COVID-19, including 22 in intensive care. This means we have more COVID-19 patients in our hospitals than at the peak of the pandemic in mid-April. Please read and share this important update:"
leedsth.nhs.uk/about-us/news-and-media/coronavirus-news/2020/10/27/trust-covid-status

mobile.twitter.com/LeedsHospitals/status/1321117600336748544

"We are standing down some planned operations due to current pressures which means that some patients will have their treatment postponed; only essential operations are going ahead in most cases. We have stopped elective inpatient orthopaedics at Chapel Allerton completely and we have begun a rolling programme of theatre closures to increase critical care capacity."
www.leedsth.nhs.uk/about-us/news-and-media/coronavirus-news/2020/10/27/trust-covid-status

Testing data does look odd. Under Pillar 4 it says they gave processed 40,256 tests on 26/10. However the capacity for pillar 4 is 19,511. This doesn't make sense to me. There is also a huge jump in pillar 1 capacity. Is this because they are anticipating a big rise in hospital numbers?

Poor bloody HCPs.

I'm afraid I suspect they'll somehow increase (theoretical?) test capacity for these few days so that they can say they hit their target for end of October. Like they did in the summer when they had their first target. It dipped considerably for many weeks afterwards.

thanks Piggy he's been fine, so just a precaution I think.🤞🏻

@Augustbreeze

I'm afraid I suspect they'll somehow increase (theoretical?) test capacity for these few days so that they can say they hit their target for end of October. Like they did in the summer when they had their first target. It dipped considerably for many weeks afterwards.

Oh I'm glad it's not just me with a suspicious mind ;-))

The only other thing I could think of is the pilot testing being carried out in some Universities, which might come under P1, but I think that's a bit of straw grasping.

Is the Pillar 1 increase linked to the method change including retests for anyone first tested more than a week ago?

@Nellodee - yes, it could be the secondary school lots-of-connections driving a disproportionate increase. The sort of thing needed regionally are the comparison figures of all school staff positive cases per 100k and just teachers positive cases per 100k plotted in a graph with scale adjustment to compare against regional cases per 100,000. That would very quickly show trends. If anyone can get the data.