Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 17:20

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

Our STUDIES Corner

OP posts:
Thread gallery
81
BanditoShipman · 24/10/2020 20:45

@IrenetheQuaint

Not sure the aggression is helpful, *@MRex*?

Agree the hospital data is v hard to interpret - it reminds me of earlier this summer when the positive test data was sort of available but very hard to make any sense of. I'm sure there is a way government data scientists could make the hospital data clearer and easier to understand in terms of the key metrics, what they mean and how they are being used in policy terms.

Thank God someone else has said this. I’ve been a lurker from the start and MRex is constantly snippy and aggressive to other posters. Just stop it! If there is a post you don’t like, scroll past!
Piggywaspushed · 24/10/2020 20:45

Yup, tried them all. My friend tried for herself and nearest pharmacy was a Boots in London (60 miles away!)

He is going to email his consultant on Monday so hopefully eh can phone GP. It seems they surgery have just been chucking people off the priority list in a bit of a panic. It's one of those postcode lottery things. Another GP 3 miles away has done all theirs in our village hall!!

AnyFucker · 24/10/2020 20:47

.

MRex · 24/10/2020 20:50

@Piggywaspushed - would switching GP be possible?

Piggywaspushed · 24/10/2020 20:52

I think that might be the next step mrex, for sure.

MRex · 24/10/2020 20:54

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

BanditoShipman · 24/10/2020 21:11

Eh? I’ve had this name for years. Ask MNHQ, I’ve been on MN about 14 years and had this name for about 5 I think

I’ve got no skin in this game, I just enjoy reading these threads and am fed up with them being disrupted because you’re constantly making nasty comments to other posters. I don’t ‘know’ any of the participants of these threads from other threads, apart from AnyFucker who keeps place marking with a ‘.’ :D

As an outsider, Red and the op, piggy, educatingsomething, ancientgran, all make great posts, you just always seem to be nasty towards others. Like with IloveJK, if you didn’t like school posts just don’t read them no need to be so unkind

HoldingTight · 24/10/2020 21:22

Ignore it MRex

Loftyloft · 24/10/2020 21:30

Anyone else surprised at the lack of some recent data studies for some covid related areas?

I was looking up incubation period. The latest study I can find (and the one the WHO still link to) is from May (Mean time 5-6 days), but still linked to the Jan-feb Wuhan cases. Now cases are in the millions, I’d expect some more recent, wider studies to be available?

MRex · 24/10/2020 21:43

You're probably right that some things are under-researched, but it might just be that research into some things hasn't changed the data so nobody linked new studies. The incubation period is pretty much the same in this July research published in August, which aimed to review the available international into:
bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e039652.info
"The corresponding mean (95% CIs) was 5.8 (95% CI 5.0 to 6.7) days."

AnyFucker · 24/10/2020 22:06

Hope nobody minds the odd "."

It's a fast moving thread so easy to skip right past me, I have no wise stuff to add but very interested.

wintertravel1980 · 24/10/2020 22:13

With BigChoc leaving, there are not that many posters remaining on this thread who share useful data. MRex is one of them.

Asking people not to whinge and encouraging them to look for a different thread if they want to moan is not "being unkind". If people do not have much to add to the conversation about data and numbers, they should probably refrain from posting.

I am also a bit tired of random posters who start asking questions just after 4pm about the numbers for the day. Is it really that hard to check the official dashboard? All of us have got the same data sources.

Anyway, this is my "unkind" post for today. I have been away for a few days and it is a bit sad to see what is happening in this thread.

MRex · 24/10/2020 22:23

@AnyFucker - your comments are always on point. Or a little bit dotty.

AnyFucker · 24/10/2020 22:26

Smile carry on, as you were

Augustbreeze · 24/10/2020 22:50

(@AnyFucker do you know about the "Watch" option, or Bookmarking, as an alternative to posting simply to enable you to find the thread/place again? Look them up maybe?)

Shitfuckoh · 24/10/2020 22:50

@AnyFucker

Hope nobody minds the odd "."

It's a fast moving thread so easy to skip right past me, I have no wise stuff to add but very interested.

Not me, I can make sense of a dot Grin

BCF, please come back.

Mrex Wine & a little cheese!

Abraid2 · 24/10/2020 23:53

@AnyFucker

Hope nobody minds the odd "."

It's a fast moving thread so easy to skip right past me, I have no wise stuff to add but very interested.

I don’t mind the dot, but can’t you watch or bookmark on whatever device you’re on? 🙂
MRex · 25/10/2020 07:30

Aw, I rather like the tradition of that little friendly dot turning up 10-20 pages into the thread.

Stircrazyschoolmum · 25/10/2020 08:47

Sorry if this is ancedata (I usually lurk quietly). But I wanted to say that in my part of SW London test data is taking around 5 days to turn around. (I know from 3 different contacts) This is delaying t&t and making a mockery of self isolation advice as it’s coming after kids have left for half term hols etc. I’m flagging it as I suspect there will be lots of retrospective cases added to the last weeks figures and I also suspect some people having given up trying to get tests.

If this experience is being replicated in other parts of London then its premature to think things are flattening even if we would like it to.

Thank you for all the sensible data crunching.. come back big choc!

Piggywaspushed · 25/10/2020 08:49

I like the dot. I find comfort in the fact that anyfucker is still here, lurking.

Piggywaspushed · 25/10/2020 08:52

Fairly shocking stuff in the DT today about triaging of the elderly in the first wave. Some doubt about how far it happened, but these deaths amongst the most elderly seem not to be entirely down to their actual health. And the survival of the slightly younger, fitter patients was , possibly, at the cost of the lives of elderly patients. We all know how hard it was to get admitted to hospital at all in March or April so triaging was definitely happening. It's a sobering read.

Piggywaspushed · 25/10/2020 08:52

ST, not DT.

MRex · 25/10/2020 10:06

I can't read the article unfortunately, but ideally I'd like an ICU doctor opinion, it's a complex topic. We've seen some elderly patients were ventilated, so it can't have barred all over-80s. I seem to recall research showing fairly poor outcomes of ventilation for the over-80s normally never mind covid (I can only find this, which doesn't look as bad as I remember reading so may be a different report: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1873959812000488), while in NY they had a lot of bad outcomes with 1/3 of the over-65s they ventilated dying (www.nytimes.com/2018/06/22/health/breathing-tubes-intubation-older-patients.html).

RedToothBrush · 25/10/2020 10:07

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/tried-full-picture-coronavirus-situation-19157048.amp?__twitter_impression=true
We tried to get the full picture of the coronavirus situation in Liverpool City Region hospitals
Our reporters have spent the week trying to get full details and numbers from hospitals across the region

We have heard from top doctors who have warned that the rocketing coronavirus admissions combined with the usual winter pressures means the situation in local hospitals is close to becoming unmanageable.

There are still some who doubt the severity of the situation and suggest the hospitals are only undergoing the same strains as in any winter.

But what is perhaps not helping with some of the covid-denying theories we are seeing on social media, is a lack of clear, updated data coming from the NHS.

This has become a source of frustration in local trusts, with a feeling that these worrying numbers should be shared with members of the public in the hope that it will inspire people to behave correctly and follow safety measures and hopefully limit the amount of people heading into hospitals with the virus.

But it would appear that the centrally managed communications system is frustrating this plan.

As you will see from their accounts - this was not always easy.

And

The situation is clearly extremely serious, but when we asked the Trust for a full breakdown of the numbers of admissions for coronavirus patients, those in intensive care units and those requiring mechanical ventilators, they were not provided.

As you will read from the accounts of my colleagues below - this is not an issue confined to Liverpool.

And

I decided to try another avenue and contacted Liverpool's Clinical Commissioning Group, the body which commissions most of the hospital and community NHS services in the city.

Its chair, Dr Fiona Lemmens agreed to speak to me and expressed her own frustrations at the central NHS system around information sharing.

She said: "I can understand why journalists and members of the public are frustrated, because they really want to know and understand what is happening in hospitals.

"I share some of that frustration because in Liverpool we really want to get a public health message out about how worried we all are and how serious the situation is right now.

"That message is crucial in making sure that the public does the right thing in following the rules closely."

The article goes on to explain how difficult it was to get the info but heres a summary

At time of the article there were 408 admissions to Liverpool main hospitals. Thats 25% of all patients. 29 of whom are in ICU which is about half its normal capacity.
There have been 110 deaths this month alone so far.

St Helens and Knowsley NHS Trust didn't want to comment on the impact being felt at the two hospital and whether it was affecting other areas of care.
126 covid patients with 7 in ICU to 20th October but no further details.

Wirral University Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust was not able to give up to date figures. The last available data was 78 patients with 7 in ICU. This was to 16th Oct.
They are not currently cancelling any other treatments.

Southport and Ormskirk NHS Trust refused to give any information at all.

Warrington and Halton Hospitals have almost reached the coronavirus peak seen in April. There are currently 110 covid-positive patients with 15 in ICU. There are another nine non-covid patients currently in ICU. The trust currently has an intensive care capacity of 26 beds, although there are "escalation plans" in place.

Earlier in the week there were a higher number of 116 patients (April peak 124) and there have been 17 deaths in a week. They commented on how it was different to April as numbers at A & E were at normal level unlike in April, but refused to comment on whether it was affecting other treatment at the hospitals.

Easy to do data on this.
Number of covid patients
% of covid patients at the hospital
No of covid and non covid ICU patients and currently icu capacity
Whether esculation plans are currently in planning / on standby / in operation
Whether disruption to other services was currently happening.

I rest my case here because clearly trying to highlight the point is distressing people.

Ive been trying to pull data from all over the place to put into a format that people can read in a nice little chart. I know this area and the demographics very well and over laying ward maps of covid rates with deprivation rates is stark in its correlation. I've said there has been a problem on the hospital data and looked hard at where Liverpool is compared to Manchester given the political stuff - its high in Manchester but the problem is acute elsewhere including places yet to go in T3.

But because i cant present this in a chart or a graph or a diagram or in a way which directly compares like for like, its has upset people. I wish i could and that has been my problem from the start.

Looking at the safe stuff is all very well but in terms of whats happening here and now and reflects the front line its really not very good. And i would strongly argue that the government aren't doing this either when they should be. The fact this data doesn't exist or if it does is near to impossible for journalists to get hold of doesn't speak well for transparency. It says to me that the government or local government arent managing the situation and making decisions off the back of huge amount data. It says the government has not got its finger on the pulse on overall management and doesn't actually know whats happening due to chronic and long standing poor communication between different levels of government. And local government is either being overridden in spite of data, sitting on information or struggling to get adequate lines of communication to government.

It turns out im clearly not alone in my frustration in this and i wish a few more people would wake up to why this is incredibly important and is a massive problem. I simply wouldn't make a fuss like this if it wasn't.

ancientgran · 25/10/2020 10:47

while in NY they had a lot of bad outcomes with 1/3 of the over-65s they ventilated dying On the other hand you could say they had alot of good outcomes with 2/3 of the over 65s they ventilated surviving. As an over 65 I would give it a go for a 2/3 chance of surviving.

Swipe left for the next trending thread