Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
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Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Cases still around the same level we've had over the past week. It doesn't seem to me like exponential growth.

I think the advisors use the words "levelling off" when they mean that the rate of increase is decreasing. I think it's a simpler term, but not such an accurate one. However, we're not seeing 3 day doubling, so let's be grateful for that.

The Guardian reporting that public health officials hardly used hospitality venue check in data in tracing outbreaks. Article also states that only 2.7% of new outbreaks in the last week have been linked
by PHE to hospitality venues. If you look at the surveillance report for week 40 (2nd Oct) in order highest outbreaks were in educational establishments (not differentiated by age in this report), then workplaces and care homes with the third highest number of outbreaks. I wonder how this will feed into decisions re: control measures as further data comes out in the coming weeks.

news.google.com/articles/CAIiEKVo6pdLh3Zq4wf3a-dd41YqFggEKg4IACoGCAowl6p7MN-zCTDMwRU?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

But if you look at the @RP131 graphs they seem to be following an exponential growth with a possible start of an uptick again.

For example:
<a class="break-all" href="https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1319662547470065665?s=1twitter.com/RP131/status/1319662547470065665?s=19" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">twitter.com/RP131/status/1319662547470065665?s=1twitter.com/RP131/status/1319662547470065665?s=19

Sorry, second link should work.

[quote Choconuttolata]The Guardian reporting that public health officials hardly used hospitality venue check in data in tracing outbreaks. Article also states that only 2.7% of new outbreaks in the last week have been linked
by PHE to hospitality venues. If you look at the surveillance report for week 40 (2nd Oct) in order highest outbreaks were in educational establishments (not differentiated by age in this report), then workplaces and care homes with the third highest number of outbreaks. I wonder how this will feed into decisions re: control measures as further data comes out in the coming weeks.

news.google.com/articles/CAIiEKVo6pdLh3Zq4wf3a-dd41YqFggEKg4IACoGCAowl6p7MN-zCTDMwRU?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports[/quote]

Isn't that because the measures in place across hospitality are working quite well? If the current restrictions were to be released infections would presumably increase. I recall a US study that put bars & restaurants as the number one source of infection when no restrictions were in place. I'll try to find it.

The case numbers do look like they're levelling off to me. RP's Twitter charts are very good for a quick & dirty eyeballing. Of course, we know that things can change very quickly but I feel a bit more hopeful today.

I really don't think RPs graphs show a continued labelling off when you start looking at cases from 19th 20th October. 19th is looking like less of an anomaly.

This one looks like a very slight slowdown to me. But I might be wrong!

Exeter is certainly dropping, measures with the students must have worked. Nice to see something positive.

You have to allow for the fact that the latest 4 days are in the 'lag' and will get more cases added though.

The 7 day rolling average is up

Cases by 29.7 percent
and
Deaths by 42.4 percent

I think it is far too early to say that we are truly levelling off at this point, so many factors region, age distribution of cases, spread into older age groups, cases currently incubating based on spread that happened prior to increased control measures, half term travel and future cases (I know several people travelling south to the SW for half term as they did in the summer).

It is somewhat positive that cases seem to be doubling every 14 days at not more often, I hope we can keep it to this or decrease the rate of increase further.

When you look at this one, it looks as if the average had gone back towards a 14 day doubling exponential but I think the last few days are going to give it an uptick again as the rolling average goes on. This one also show the lag days clearly where more cases are still likely to be added on!

@EducatingArti

You have to allow for the fact that the latest 4 days are in the 'lag' and will get more cases added though.

Yes, but the cases added are slightly lower in recent days. 19th being the peak and then the steps become shallower. I know it's only 3 days worth but I'm taking it tonight because I need some good news

Yes I agree HoldingTight it could be control measures working or that social distancing and hygiene procedures are easier to enforce or more stringently enforced in hospitality settings.

The workplace one worries me as these are presumably adults or 16+ more at risk than under 16's who would be more likely to be wearing masks, socially distancing and hopefully better at hand hygiene than children. They are also often larger groups of adults not in the same household and together in the same space for longer than people in restaurants.

Agree. It would be useful to see a breakdown by type of work environment.

This BMJ article discusses cases reported to the HSE over the April peak into August. It would be good to see whether current workplace outbreaks are still heavily linked to residential care/social work and healthcare as this was an area that really needed improvement if spread into the older age groups was going to be reduced both for care home and in hospital spread.

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3577

@RigaBalsam

The 7 day rolling average is up

Cases by 29.7 percent
and
Deaths by 42.4 percent

This matches what I thought I could see on the graphs.

Apr - Aug ... when loads of workplaces were closed! Definitely needs updating.

@CoronaIsWatching

Cases still around the same level we've had over the past week. It doesn't seem to me like exponential growth.

I'm obviously looking at different figures to you.

7 day average on 21st October is over 21k and the days since then have stayed around or above that level so likely to increase towards today.
7 day average a week before that was around 16k.

It's not exponential growth but it is very definite growth of around 33%.

Sadly I don;t think there are signs of flattening yet, and the 19th no longer looks like an outlier either . The 20th in terms of specimen date now stands at 20,429, and 21st at 17,516.

Taking the 7 day rolling average for England, that is now just over 16,000, so the latest doubling has taken 20 days.

Positivity rate in England also up around 15% week on week, so less, than the increase in cases at least. One slight crumb of comfort perhaps.

I found the HSE riddor reports but only to the 19th September. Most cases reported were health and social care settings or other domestic service (personal care in homes maybe and cleaners?). Also HSE website mentions lack of workplace reporting as an issue so who knows the true picture.

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/coronavirus/covid-19-riddor-reports-data-tables.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwiJ-I_j5s3sAhXRRBUIHbauD10QFjACegQIDBAB&usg=AOvVaw0gxDadFHRUPs6GoNa002VO" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.hse.gov.uk/statistics/coronavirus/covid-19-riddor-reports-data-tables.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwiJ-I_j5s3sAhXRRBUIHbauD10QFjACegQIDBAB&usg=AOvVaw0gxDadFHRUPs6GoNa002VO

It's just a tad concerning that this flu jab shortage appears to be casing problems in quite a few areas.

DH was phoned yesterday and told he would have to wait unit at least late Nov for his jab. (when all the 50+ year olds come on stream) despite having been entitled to a flu jab for 12 years and having a heart condition. Not sure how that's going to help in the aim not to overwhelm the NHS.

Sorry for the anecdata but it does seem to be a problem in various pockets of the country or at surgeries that have track records of not really coping with numbers at the best of times.

@Piggywaspushed - that must be a worry for you. Did you try all the pharmacies too? I've just checked and wouldn't be able to book Boots nor Lloyd's, Tesco only over 65s, but Superdrug and ASDA have slots. Maybe other pharmacies and supermarkets in your area have, it's worth a call. NHS are still free, he would just fill out the form.
Also if he's registered with Patient Access online, then he can also search and it should show anything available (but if nothing then try Google). I'm not eligible, but can see a pharmacy a few miles away still offering private flu jabs 18-65 so there might be something.