Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Asking people not to whinge and encouraging them to look for a different thread if they want to moan is not "being unkind". How about telling them to fuck off?

One of the things that stuck our form the article MRex was that a points system was advocated. Over 80 (poss 85) equalled 9 points, regardless of health. You needed fewer than 8 for ventilation.

There were many NHS staff horrified by this, we are told.

@RedToothBrush. It is a transparency issue. All that data is captured , for local resilience forums level at least. There should also be a local outbreak board - are their meeting minutes published. I’d imagine probably not either. Beyond frustrating. I’m not necessarily advocating that everything should be in the public domain, but your basic list - please don’t take basic the wrong way - above and more should be, supported by clear communication and presentation. Which brings us to our next problem the ultimate oxymoron that is the communications professional

I posted the previous NHS scoring tool either upthread or on the last thread, which was quite controversial. As they know more now they have also developed the 4C Mortality Tool to assist in decision making (but I am sure it is not just based on this, but also NEWS score, bed availability, age/score of other patients also needing beds etc...).

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3339

isaric4c.net/risk/4c/

If you watched the documentary on BBC following the doctor from Cremona Hospital, Italy at the height of the March peak, she was having to make tough decisions over intensive care beds for people in their 30/40's with no comorbidities and those older either with or without.

This page talks about how aging changes the lungs/body in easy to understand language.

medlineplus.gov/ency/article/004011.htm

A more medical one for those that like the extra science stuff.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2695176/#:~:text=There%20is%20no%20change%20in,markedly%20impaired%20in%20older%20adults.

There is also the long term impact physically (and increased risk for future infections) of an ITU stay which would be greater for elderly people. The need for longer term rehab post ITU stay and where that needs to take place impacts on ward bed availability even if stepped down from ITU/HDU.

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150519182201.htm

@Piggywaspushed - yeah, clearly that's all manner of wrong then to prescriptive decline ventilation in all cases. Is it the same early chart that had points for how much help someone needed and had to be chatted when it was pointed of the impacts on disabled people who would otherwise expect a long life, or a new one that's just been found?

*changed not chatted

I am not sure it is new news and I do remember your stuff before choconut but the ST seems to have more detail no and is also obviously reviving the story as we go into a second wave. They also seem to want to remind us that an awful lot of early decisions or ideas , now viewed as somewhat unethical, were overseen, or even instigated , by Whitty and Vallance.

Long-time lurker here. May I add my thanks for the analysis of data and informed comment from the contributors to this thread. To those who have been offended by some rude and at times overly political posts, please ignore these and continue with your efforts which are greatly appreciated. I have been watching the stats on the government website on a daily basis and have been especially interested on the map of cases which can be accessed through the cases page, which can be magnified to show the number of cases in local areas. The link to the map disappeared yesterday. Can anybody explain this please or point me to where I can find it. I found it was particularly interesting to highlight the huge increase in university campus areas, eg Exeter and Bristol.

@serialgrannie The map is still there, on the landing page - scroll down?

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

Thanks Patricia. You can see why us older mumsnetters need your help. I'd looked all over for this.

@serialgrannie - you could save the direct link if that's the main thing you look at: coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map.

@boys3 - have you looked at the SARIwatch weekly update, which replaces CHESS and USISS? It's in the regular surveillance report: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports.
It's a tried and tested approach, which has been expanded to merge flu and covid monitoring. While other data might be interesting, if the data that usually signals an issue is admissions compared with MEM thresholds, then I can see why it would be used.

I don't feel able to comment on whether it's the right metrics to check because it's a specialty topic for healthcare. It would be interesting if Hospital Trusts don't think this is the right dataset to use for decision-making, do you think that's the case?
(I've posted a few times links to covid info, but other hospital information is all available here if you wanted to access other info.) www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/)

Personally I automatically shudder at the idea of a comms person "selling" the case for why specific public health measures are being taken, because the action of interpreting information into a clean story feels like politicising something that should be based on experienced judgement. From the general discomfort to be seen from the North of England in particular though, it certainly seems to be necessary. I'm not sure how this stuff usually works, are there existing people in Department of Health who should be able to do this, or has the challenge increased beyond competence levels because the stakes are so high? Is this what the new comms woman Allegra Stratton was hired to address, or is she doing something else?

Allegra Stratton is going to do a daily news conference - like the White House does. Not sure if it'll be broadcast like the US one or not?

I guess that would be part of her remit, or her support staff's anyway.

Heard on news this morning that Rishi Sunak wants /will get daily economic figures shown alongside death rates etc, to highlight the difficult judgements the govt is having to make. I don't think I like this idea, how on earth can such different types of data be compared, especially on a daily basis?? (I may have misheard part of that bit, however!)

Ok thanks. Looks like the briefings start in November. We shall see then.

I guess some economic indicators are useful to show for a rounded picture. Not convinced about putting them next to deaths, nor even aligning with cases, but being in the same "how's it going" report would be ok.

I have a request for some evidence please.

On other threads I’m increasingly seeing people claiming that things aren’t nearly as bad as the government are claiming “because false positives”. To my well-informed amateur eyes this is bollocks. False positives would be a problem if we were doing large scale “moonshot” random testing in a population with very low prevalence, but they have virtually no impact on the daily figures we’re currently getting on the news, and in particular no impact on the growth curves.

I do think this needs pushback and challenge wherever we see it, because if it goes unchallenged it looks superficially plausible. I’m struggling to find up to date positivity figures for the UK though, which are key evidence, and because I’m on my phone and quite distracted I’m also struggling to formulate a rebuttal that goes beyond “that’s bollocks, come back when you’ve learned some maths” which would be less than persuasive.

Does anyone have any time on their hands and fancy formatting a well-structured rebuttal please?

Liverpool reportedly considering 'Tier 4':

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/tier-4-local-lockdowns-being-19162588.amp

August I jokingly replied to a friend on another thread that the only way out of Tier 3 was Tier 4 (then 5). I really hate to be "right".😠

I heard a report earlier that the NHS is getting ready to start vaccinating staff within weeks, I've listened to the news later in the day and didn't hear anything, starting to wonder if I imagined it. Has anyone heard anything about it?

I might give my son a ring later to see if he's heard anything (he's a hospital manager.) Trying to restrain myself as it is first weekend off in a while.

@ancientgran

I heard a report earlier that the NHS is getting ready to start vaccinating staff within weeks, I've listened to the news later in the day and didn't hear anything, starting to wonder if I imagined it. Has anyone heard anything about it?

I might give my son a ring later to see if he's heard anything (he's a hospital manager.) Trying to restrain myself as it is first weekend off in a while.

An email from the head of a trust in Warwickshire was leaked. It appears to be preparations in anticipation of the trial results.

It's unlikely that anyone knows whether the vaccine is effective yet. The Oxford trial will only be unblinded when 75 participants contract symptomatic COVID ( the others have an earlier interim analysis in their protocols). I would expect reaching that stage would merit an announcement as it is market-sensitive. However, it may be that they're getting near to that number, which is why preparations are under way.

Thanks cathyandclare I was really starting to think I'd imagined it.

Bad news just coming out that Spain has declared a state of emergency.

Forgot the link www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/global-report-spain-declares-covid-state-of-emergency-as-italians-urged-to-stay-home

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-nhs-staff-england-oxford-b1295880.html
Mail on Sunday originally it looks like. The legislation was prepared with rapid roll-outs from November or December in mind, because it was specifically prepared for pre-EMA approval (I.e. for a pre-Brexit situation). I don't think there's been any plan put out for how many can actually be vaccinated per week, anyone got any ideas? Maybe core NHS vaccinate themselves + army vaccinate care workers? Presumably the vaccine would take a few weeks to take effect like the flu vaccine?

I think they said it is 2 doses 28 days apart, don't know how long after the 2nd dose it would be effective.

19790 cases
151 deaths