Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Just listened to some more about the waste water, it looks like it is for last month and showed an outbreak that has happened. Maybe a bit more positive than I thought.

@ancientgran

Just listened to some more about the waste water, it looks like it is for last month and showed an outbreak that has happened. Maybe a bit more positive than I thought.

Yes - the BBC have reported on it-

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54646451

"But a pilot in south-west England has already helped to spot a rise in infections that occurred last month in Plymouth, where a cluster was silently growing as a result of several asymptomatic cases. "

Encouraging I think.

Thanks Patricia, I missed the national news (granny duties) so just saw it on the local news. Did they mention the testing in Cornwall as well? All the tests done at Starcross Lab (Starcross is just outside Exeter.)

The rest of the local news seems to be about Exeter and their rugby prowess except for local schools pleading for money for covid measures, govt have refused. Our schools get quite low funding so it is hitting them hard, also lots of deprived areas.

I'll miss your data updates and comments @BigChocFrenzy, thank you for your data threads and hope to see you back.

@Eyewhisker - I believe ONS has previously commented that it's likely that some older deaths have been brought forward, though it isn't expected to be a large number of the deaths. Might younger ones in early days have also been covid blood clots undiagnosed on the death certificate, or have all younger deaths been tested as a matter of course?

Sorry Patricia, I thought you meant it was on national news, obviously your link is for the BBC website so I will go and have a look.

[quote ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough]@eeeyoresmiles I read a sage report on different potential measures and their likely effect on r but can’t find it now. It was probably linked in this thread if anyone else remembers it? They listed several measures buy Labour seemed to jump on it to suggest sage were recommending just one ie the firebreak lockdown.[/quote]
This?

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf

Link to 7 day average of positive cases by specimen date from @RP131 on twitter: mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1319673844668432385

@ancientgran Ah sorry, just internet! Can't remember the last time I watched TV news....!

The internet piece gave me a thought Patricia. On the last thread we did some speculating on the difference between Exeter and Plymouth rates, Exeter was very high, it seems to be dropped, but was much higher than Plymouth. Thoughts were maybe where students came from or mature students, that piece has made me think is it to do with this study? The piece you linked to said it gave local public health a heads up about a coming spike and they had an opportunity to put some measures in to deal with it.

If that head's up was what helped to keep numbers down then that looks really positive as it goes nationwide. I'm hoping it is a step forward.

My typing has gone to pot, seems to be dropping not dropped. Heads-up not head's up. Trying to control GC, feed husband and think. One activity too many.

42,000 new cases for France today and 298 deaths. That includes the care homes catch up (twice per week). I haven’t see the actual break down yet. Unbelievably depressing and worrying.

FingonTheValiant, that must be really worrying. Hope things improve.

Oh found it, 184 hospital deaths in 24 hours and 114 in care homes since Tuesday.

@BigChocFrenzy
I do not often post on your data threads
but its a reassurance to know that they are there

have a good weekend away from all of us
enjoy the sunshine
your perspective remains important.

See you Monday

Thanks ancientgran

@BigChocFrenzy Sorry folks another one delurking to say Thankyou to you for these brilliant factual threads. I have read from the start when my anxiety about the situation was through the roof. Come back when you're ready

[quote ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough]@eeeyoresmiles I read a sage report on different potential measures and their likely effect on r but can’t find it now. It was probably linked in this thread if anyone else remembers it? They listed several measures buy Labour seemed to jump on it to suggest sage were recommending just one ie the firebreak lockdown.[/quote]
Yes, the one PatriciaHolm linked to has the qualitative version of what I'm wondering about. I was just wondering if the policymakers have quantified 'impact with full compliance' and 'impact with likely compliance right now' separately, to compare them. I assume there must be more detailed numbers behind the scenes somewhere to inform e.g. what gets a big communication push to increase compliance and what doesn't.

My other question with that document is what the assumed start points are for these reductions, e.g. for wfh. It's not clear whether some the improvements in R are further improvements with more of whatever the proposed measure is, or total improvements after extending that measure more, compared to normal.

@BigChocFrenzy

icecreamsummer20 The continual sniping and accusations from you and a couple of others are why I won't be continuing the threads and I will be quitting MN by the end of this thread

So congratulations, you have managed to drive me off MN

Threatening to 'flounce' again? 🙄

@Frazzled2207

Does it appear that they are getting tests done quicker does anyone think? or is reporting date not connected to the date people get their test results. You would have thought that once there was a test result it would automatically be added to the general count but that would be too straightforward surely

@Frazzled2207 I've graphed the breakdown each day going back to 31st August. Tbh its a bit all over the place. This is for England overall. I've not actively kept the regional level data which might reveal more.

Day-1 is obviously next to nothing, Day-2 (red bar) something of a rollercoaster.

@BigChocFrenzy

icecreamsummer20 The continual sniping and accusations from you and a couple of others are why I won't be continuing the threads and I will be quitting MN by the end of this thread

So congratulations, you have managed to drive me off MN

BCF I would genuinely miss you if you left MN. I really enjoy your writings on here and the Brexit thread and I'm particularly grateful to you for giving me some insight into my condition which I might never have gained otherwise.

Here in the south west we have over 100 positives in an academy, the local football team has positives and an aldi has positives as well not including the households transmission.
We were doing well but most definitely on the rise the past few weeks.
I think we stand around 64/100000 which is still lower then other areas but we were in the 20/100000 not long ago.

Rolling 7 average for England.

The strange star things are the number of days it has taken for the 7 day rolling average to double.

Being a simple sort and to not move beyond the limits of my mathematical capability the graph starts on the 27th August at which point the 7 day average was 1005

Move forward 9 days and it has doubled - 2033

Then 16 days and it has doubled again - 4072

End September, very early October case acceleration the doubling reduced to 10 days - 8114

19 days later 7 day average at 15,071 so not quite doubled yet, but a clear jump in daily cases as compared to last week.

@BigChocFrenzy

icecreamsummer20 The continual sniping and accusations from you and a couple of others are why I won't be continuing the threads and I will be quitting MN by the end of this thread

So congratulations, you have managed to drive me off MN

BCF - please don't leave because of ignorant people. You will be truly missed. I don't post in this thread because I don't want to interrupt. But your input is truly truly valued.

@BigChocFrenzy thanks for all you have done, can the word from Shakespeare's Sister tempt you?

Don't you think it would be a good idea if people stopped all the comments that aren't covid related. Considering how much grief was handed out about "it isn't data" it is ironic that the thread has been overtaken with posts that have nothing to do with data or covid.

I take it most if not all of us are adults so I think it would be constructive to just move on.

Castie I agree our numbers are definitely rising.