Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

I think we all know that here as in the rest of life, there are different personalities and different priorities, different language registers, different attitudes to "swearing" etc.

On MN it's impossible to control a thread and this is both a good and a bad thing.

To echo others, I have been incredibly grateful for this series of threads, and the expertise, interest and patience displayed on it, by BigChoc and also many many others.

My main concern was to be able to challenge but be respected. I’m a big fan of data and evidence, it’s what I do for a living but different viewpoints are healthy. Anyway will shut up about that now.

However in the spirit of that I do just want to show compassion and respect myself too to others. So in that spirit I want to say that @BigChocFrenzy it is totally up to you what you do, but clearly lots of people really appreciate you and this thread. I myself have often been supportive and a fan of many of these good threads. I don’t want you to feel terrible. I don’t want anyone to feel terrible. Life is too short. I wish you well, I wish other posters well, and for my part I don’t want any of my words to cause upset.

I’ll leave the thread to get on with itself. I might leave MN too it might be a good idea to have a break! Good luck everyone and take care

@Hmmph

ONS notes say this about the secondary schools data:

“Extreme caution should be taken in over-interpreting small movements in the narrower age groups, particularly those in school Years 7 to 11, which have wider credible intervals.”

This. For the ons survery it's probably best to look at week on week trends as opposed to fluctuations week on week. Although numbers involved (and testing postive) are increasing, they have been quite small and confidence intervals large.

bigchoc

I don’t think I have ever posted on these threads but have been following every day since March!

BCF thank you for all your threads, they are amazing and I’m sure many people get a lot out of them.

However everyone needs a break. I presume you get no monetary reward for keeping them going and even if it was your actual job, I would expect holidays to happen! Kick back for a bit, come back if you want or don’t.

Sniping and accusations get to the best of us.

I also worry about Dr John Campbell too and think he should have some time off.

@BigChocFrenzy, another lurker on your threads. I want to thank you for providing calm in the storm of this year. The data and explanation of it has been invaluable in maintaining my sanity.

I haven't posted before as I didn't want to fill your threads.

Another thank you to @BigChocFrenzy I've really appreciated these threads and all your information and explainations over the past few months

And another lurker here @bigchocfrenzy. Thank you and I do hope you return. Your calm and reasoned data analysis has kept so many of us sane. Take care.

17116 cases added for England today

Specimen dates

22/10. 226
21/10. 7614
20/10. 7923
19/10. 1111
18/10. 133

Another who lurks but seldom posts and I'm grateful to BigChoc
The thread does veer off course occasionally but it comes back thanks to the efforts of those who post detailed data regularly.

Covid is like having polluted flood waters throughout a town - we can't stop everything, pump out the flood water and wait until the ground is dry before opening things up again, but neither can we just open things up and stop bothering at all with the flood barriers, sandbags, road blocks and so on that are keeping levels low. We're like London suddenly given Venice's sea levels and maybe preparing for the next year is about accepting that and restructuring things fast. At the moment lots of things are alternating between "as normal as possible and therefore not that safe" and "closed", when maybe there are middle grounds not yet explored.

I love this analogy. I can visualise it where I sometimes struggle with data and graphs

Another thank you to @BigChocFrenzy. This thread keeps me sane; it would be such a loss if it were to stop.

The updated data for today has been missed in-between well-wishing posts.

Thanks from me to @BigChocFrenzy too
Hope you come back at some point.

20530 cases in UK today, 224 deaths which is very worrying .

the 19th October seems to be quite an outlier in terms of high numbers tested positive. Someone upthread mentioned that Monday is probably the most likely day of the week you'd get tested which is probably true with the start of the working/school week and it looks like less testing capacity on sundays given the usually much lower specimen date figures.

340,000 tests processed yesterday though which is the highest ever by some margin. Capacity is at 360k, some way off the 500k promised by the end of October but it is rising every day.

I am hopeful that cases in NW are flattening a bit - they def seem to be in the NE. West Midlands and London seem to be very much on an upward trend still.

Just came across this:

Positive cases of COVID-19 in Hampshire schools

www.hants.gov.uk/socialcareandhealth/coronavirus/education/school-case-data

It doesn’t say how many cases in each school, but it gives the school status (open or closed), the date, the name of the (state?) school and whether it is a primary or secondary.

19th doesn't look like such an outlier now, when you also look at the 20th, in terms of specimen date - the last few days have seen a lot more cases being attributed to very recent dates, so the graph of cases by specimen date does seem to show quite a rise now.

I haven’t seen this before either:

A COVID data comparison site for different counties, councils, areas in England. Not sure how unique the presentation of the data is or how useful as I am about to play with it now, but thought I’d share:

lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker-area-quick-view-1?mod-area=E12000007&mod-group=AllRegions_England&mod-type=namedComparisonGroup

Sorry you are going IceCreamSummer20, hope to see you back after a break.

Happy to admit to being selfish here but BCF if you leave, where on earth am I going to get trusted data from?!

Cases still going down..

Another one delurking (there are many of us!) to say a heartfelt thanks to @BigChocFrenzy and many others for this amazing resource of data and analysis. I don't post because I often read things retrospectively and other posters have already (usually) contributed with thoughtful and measured analysis.

Without this thread my mental health would have been far worse this year. I appreciate the calm and intelligent contributions and very much hope it can continue in some guise. In the meantime BCF, you have more than earned a break and I hope you know how valued your tireless running of these threads has been.

@CoronaIsWatching

Cases still going down..

7 day rolling average by specimen date is definitely going up, unfortunately. For England, as of the 20th it was 15,701; on the 13th, it was 13,582.

The last few days have seen a significant number of cases report from within the last 2-3 days, more so than before, so whilst cases by report date have dropped, by specimen date they are increasing as previously cases would have been spread over more historical dates.

It remains to be seen whether this trend continues of course.

The analysis of excess deaths above is really interesting. It seems that for the last 18 weeks there have been fewer deaths than expected in the over 85s, and more in 15-44s, the latter being more strokes and heart disease.

This is the pattern that would be expected if many of the elderly deaths were care home (and so brought forward by a few months) and if there was knock-on effects on other care. For example, people avoiding hospitals, routine medical services being cancelled or even mistaking heart attack and stroke symptoms for covid.

*7 day rolling average by specimen date is definitely going up, unfortunately. For England, as of the 20th it was 15,701; on the 13th, it was 13,582.

The last few days have seen a significant number of cases report from within the last 2-3 days, more so than before, so whilst cases by report date have dropped, by specimen date they are increasing as previously cases would have been spread over more historical dates.

It remains to be seen whether this trend continues of course*

2,000 increase over 7 days doesn't seem like a lot to me

@eeeyoresmiles I read a sage report on different potential measures and their likely effect on r but can’t find it now. It was probably linked in this thread if anyone else remembers it? They listed several measures buy Labour seemed to jump on it to suggest sage were recommending just one ie the firebreak lockdown.

Does it appear that they are getting tests done quicker does anyone think? or is reporting date not connected to the date people get their test results.
You would have thought that once there was a test result it would automatically be added to the general count but that would be too straightforward surely

On local West Country News so most probably won't have seen it. The four main hospitals in the county, Derriford, RD&E, Torbay, North Devon District, are putting plans in place to cope. Nightingale being prepared to take patients (currently being used for vaccine trials and scanning) and services to be moved to certain hospitals so people might not be treated at their local hospital if their condition is being dealt with in another hospital.

Also report of the sewerage showing high levels for Plymouth although positive cases still low.

I think the South West's good fortune might be running out. It might be an interesting time ahead.