Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

"Is there somewhere in the uk which is similar in terms of size / economic profile to Stockholm?"

Sweden has some slums with recent immigrants, but nothing like the scale of inequality in the UK or the levels of generational deprivation

Of course, where Sweden scores far better than the UK:

• Honesty and competence in government
• A government that does not give key public health jobs to its cronies
• A government that does not keep trying to divide the public and scapegoat groups for its failures
• Hence high public trust in the government and institutions
• Transparency and clarity of strategy led by public health
• Functioning public services that have not suffered years of cuts
• Generous benefit system to ensure a decent minimum living standrads
• A population that has not suffered years of austerity

They will almost certainly end up next summer with a country that has survived in a much better state than the UK

Something feels wrong with the current breakdown of cases by test date. There is this lull for a few days and then suddenly back up on 19th (and those are numbers that I'd usually expect to see grow still). I can't figure out what's going on. The number of tests processed isn't higher. Are we going to find another few days of lost positives?

@BigChocFrenzy

Also, Germany has a lot of bigger cities with more international connections than Sweden, even though nothing like London

Nothing could justify Sweden having ~ 5.5 x deaths per million of Germany - which locked down

Deaths / Million population

118 Germany
*585 Sweden

• 51 Norway 63 Finland*
• 117 Denmark

Bcf the BMJ article just upthread stated that flu vaccines don't work for everyone and potentially only reduced deaths in a vulnerable group by half as a result.

That does leave us with a hanging problem over the potential for what a vaccine can achieve in the long term.

Even though the numbers in Germany are low now, will those numbers eventually even out with Sweden over a 5 year period, so the difference between the two is much less?

It raises the question of how long lockdowns and restrictions buys people now the virus is here to stay. Yes a couple of years is worth a hell of a lot to people in human terms, but it still isnt a survival rate of another 10 or 20 good years of life which for a 50 or 60 year old (or younger) which is perhaps where this is where the argument lies rather than an 80 year old, which i think is more in line with public expectations.

Do all the ways we measure 'lives saved' and 'excess deaths' in terms of a precovid world comparison miss this problem? Is it saving lives or just delaying the inevitable for people still vulnerable to covid. Even with a vaccine? Does a vaccine and are expectations of what it can deliver in in long term lives saved after 5 years match?

Do the post covid world with a vaccine still have a base rate death level which runs above the precovid excess mortality line?

My point is, if the vaccine is only as effective as a flu jab, then will this catch up with Germany eventually as there is a pool of people who are vulnerable for whom the vaccine doesn't help which it still have to burn through and theres fewer of these people left in Sweden. We can't keep restrictions long term after a vaccine to protect the half of the vulnerable for whom a vaccine doesn't work.

We need to adjust our thinking on this a little in terms of long term outcomes. What percentage of us will get covid over the course of 5 years? And then how many of us would die without a vaccine v how many would die with a vaccine over the course of 5 years.

We have survival rates post cancer treatment which we measure in years. Comparible information to this but for covid isnt available to us this close to the crisis, but its one which is important.

Its not merely about how many people didn't die this year. Its about what also happens in the next 5 years. We may see a sharp narrowing of that gap once things 'go back to normal'.

I hadn't realised that in English secondary schools, mask wearing outwith classrooms wasn't mandated. It's been the case in Scotland since the end of August.
There was a problem with testing at the Glasgow Lighthouse lab at the weekend, I'm waiting for a few more days of test results in Scotland to see where the tread is pointing. Positive tests in Edinburgh have decreased and we're now just under 100 per 100,000 7 day average. But other areas like Fife are staring to see increases.
Interested to see the effect of licenced hospitality being closed, although teasing out that effect and the variously timed school holidays could be difficult.

@BigChocFrenzy

"Is there somewhere in the uk which is similar in terms of size / economic profile to Stockholm?"

Sweden has some slums with recent immigrants, but nothing like the scale of inequality in the UK or the levels of generational deprivation

Thats what i thought. And i think thats where comparison between Sweden and the UK fall down most, not on population density....

Tesco seems to have forgotten they have Just-In-Time delivery systems. Their email says:
"Our stock levels are good, so there’s no need to buy more of your regular groceries than normal. And as the festive season approaches, it’s always busier for our stores, so please consider shopping a little earlier than you usually would, to avoid the peak festive period."
So don't buy more than normal, unless it's for Christmas, then it's magically fine. The little bit extra in each basket is what caused shortages back in March.

I worked for a while in Gothenburg years ago, hence my interest in Sweden

Deaths spread over years will mount up both for Covid and because economic recessions shortens lives for the less well off

red This will sound callous, but the impact of deaths on a country depends on the timeframe in which they happen

Thousands of extra deaths in 3-4 months has a huge impact
Spread out over several years - do we even know how many lives have been, or still will be, prpematurely shortened by austerity ?

An extra 30 per day for the next 10 years won't be noticed in e.g. Germany which averages ~ 2,600 deraths per day

However, imo it's not even deaths that is terifying

Oops posted by accident

Deaths are maybe only the #2 concern of many governments

The real impact will be if health services are overwhelmed and have to triage
e.g. no ICU from age 60+

Governments that don't prevent this are likely to be wiped out at the next GE

Not strictly data.... but we have mentioned in the past the point at which contact tracing systems become over-stretched - it looks like Ireland have reached that point and are asking c. 2500 people that tested positive over the weekend to carry out their own contact tracing

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/martin-only-told-of-contact-tracing-problem-when-texted-irish-times-story-1.4387131%3fmode=amp

Sorry if someone already posted, but France! 41,622 cases and 166 deaths in hospital. Over 2000 in intensive care. Surely with all the restrictions and curfews these past weeks their rate of increase should be dropping by now?
www.france24.com/en/europe/20201022-french-pm-castex-announces-new-coronavirus-measures-as-cases-surge

Also, if vaccines are not very effective, Sweden will have the same issue of continuing deaths as everyone else

They had their large deaths total from the first wave;
their higher - but not that much higher - immunity should reduce their deaths over this winter
but probably by summer they'll be in the same boat as the rest of us

btw, some discussion in Germany about whether we could get by with even up to 100,000 cases per day,
with the huge spare capacity of the health service & ICU

There is great concern that stricter SD would cause a double-dip recession
(which could end up costing more years of life over the next 20 years)

The first wave had > 300 deaths daily at peak, but compared to the normal 2,600 is an "acceptable" penalty for some, if it means avoiding stricter measures affecting the hospitality & leisure sectors

My concern would be that, as Merkel reminded us, even the German health service can be overwhelmed
and as a longterm modeller of complex situations, I'd never stake thousands of lives on models.

[quote MRex]Sorry if someone already posted, but France! 41,622 cases and 166 deaths in hospital. Over 2000 in intensive care. Surely with all the restrictions and curfews these past weeks their rate of increase should be dropping by now?
www.france24.com/en/europe/20201022-french-pm-castex-announces-new-coronavirus-measures-as-cases-surge[/quote]
....
Could our pp from France post about compliance levels ?
Also, what exactly is open atm, apart from schools ?

Also our pp from NL, please, which is in a very worrying state atm ?

Europe in general is not looking good today:
12,489 new casesand45 new deathsinGermany.
16,079 new casesand136 new deathsinItaly.
13,227 new casesand50 new deathsinBelgium.
9,271 new cases and 46 deaths in Netherlands.
12,107 new casesand168 new deathsin Poland.

Sorry for all the missed spaces, I tried copying and it looked like they were there.

@MRex

Europe in general is not looking good today: 12,489 new casesand45 new deathsinGermany. 16,079 new casesand136 new deathsinItaly. 13,227 new casesand50 new deathsinBelgium. 9,271 new cases and 46 deaths in Netherlands. 12,107 new casesand168 new deathsin Poland.

... Where do you get those ?

RKI for Germany today has
11,287 cases
30 deaths

It was a very alarming jump from yesterday, so your figures aren't from a previous day

Ah sorry, that'll teach me to trust worldometer to be correct. They claim to get the figures from here:
interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/karte-sars-cov-2-in-deutschland-landkreise/

(And now it says 12,519)

RKI issues its total about 8 or 9 am

Then some other deaths comes in, which it adds to the next day, but tagespiegel seems to keep adding later or doing something weird, but RKI are the official figures

RKI Dash
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/

RKI daily reports (German & English):
www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html?nn=13490888

There is a video on BBC, featuring Belgium. Restricted testing, lack of lab capacity, positivity rates doubling daily, hospitals on brink. No words really, just depressing. Just watched David Attenborough Extinction programme as well. Going for long walk tomorrow to clear head.

I now go to the dash of each country because worldometers has been wrong too often

John Burn-Murdoch (FT stats geek) posted he gave up on them months ago - I found he was right

@Baaaahhhhh

There is a video on BBC, featuring Belgium. Restricted testing, lack of lab capacity, positivity rates doubling daily, hospitals on brink. No words really, just depressing. Just watched David Attenborough Extinction programme as well. Going for long walk tomorrow to clear head.

... High density populations:

NL ........422 people / km2
Belgium 376 people / km2

They were hit the first time round, but are being hit very hard again - still obviously well below "herd immunity"
(didn't Gupta & co claim in July that 50% in the UK would be immune already ?)

I read the Tesco email as meaning "Please don't all expect to be able to crowd into our stores on 23/24 Dec, you won't be allowed in!"

Whether that's right or wrong, the effect may be to clear the shelves as you say, @MRex.

What about the argument that it's not the economy OR lives, but the economy AND lives? Is that looking less strong now than it was a few months ago?

Positive test figures are increasingly irrelevant since track and trace has failed. They will level off eventually but if it''s happening now it's as likely to be people not getting tests as a true levelling off.

So far we've had over 50,000 deaths from this and increasing. If it carries on it gets to the stage where doctors have to start choosing who gets treatment and who doesnt. These are people who will in effect be drowning, it's a pretty unpleasant death and the people who would trade that for their job prospects are not going to be the ones trying to get through the crowded corridors in which these people will be dying. They should be made to watch.

Not quite sure what this will do to the health staff service but you can expect higher levels of sickness, not just when they get covid but from stress and PTSD. So health care will be fucked for even longer. The NHS runs largely on goodwill at the moment and there isnt going to be a lot of that left.

Some people will suffer permanent disability because they didnt get the treatment that might have prevented damage to their organs. When covid doesnt kill it causes some nasty side effects for some people, side effects that would possibly be lower with the right treatment. At the moment we still have no idea how long the effects will last and if reinfection will be worse. We also have very little idea how many people will in this category - but lets ignore that, as it seems they may largely be women. Lets see how happy people are when they lose their job because they are physically incapable of doing it any longer.

Requiring school children to wear masks might slow spread enough to prevent this - but no-one is demanding that should happen.