Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

For comparison

U.K.

• New cases: 21,242
• Positivity rate: 6.8% (-2.7)
• In hospital: 7,704 (+284)
• In ICU: 711 (+18)
• New deaths: 189

@NeurotrashWarrior
Mrexit's so incredibly hard to teach at secondary level without going to specialised rooms. It's much easier to control outbreaks or limit in primary.

It's hard, but there are still simple changes that could be made within the guidelines:

1. Masks in corridors for all
2. Get the kids in one room for sciences on one day of the week to save moving them everywhere, language labs are a luxury, PE outside, cancel music (sorry to music teachers but it's just too risky)
3. Teachers move not kids
4. Stagger start and end of day, spread out coaches
5. Parents must wear masks to pick up / collect
6. Streaming not needed this year; English, maths, languages etc all stay within one class so kids only move for options
7. Under-14s not up get options, all in one class throughout Etc etc. There are so many things within the remit of school heads based on their own school options, some have done lots - and it sounds like others have just done nothing at all.
8. If I were DofE, I'd have had Local Authorities in charge of varying the guidelines, LA money to make extra space where there are rooms with no windows, and 14+ able to be put to blended learning at discretion of Heads, and I'd have mandated over-16 back with blended learning anywhere with cases over 50/100,000 per week. (With the new structure I might be tempted to say all secondary blended in Tier 3, over-14 blended in Tier 2.)

To excuse my long post, did anyone spot the guidelines have been updated today - and looks to be moving towards masks etc, I don't yet have time to read it all but useful for teachers: www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions-for-schools-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/guidance-for-full-opening-schools.

@Madmummyto1

I think we have established I cannot type or even get choose the correct post to reply to. My question still stands though why are we not talking about this in terms of percentages???

Because percentages infected at any given time are only one part of the picture. What matters is how likely more people are going to be infected, how ill they will get and how many will die, how health and social services will cope and how the economy will cope under the additional strain. Functioning modern societies are delicately balanced and very sensitive to small changes in the way they operate. This is a very big spanner in the works.

A bit of a sobering discussion about the the current vaccine trials and efficacy for the wider population in the BMJ.

www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037

@FingonTheValiant that’s bad.

@Madmummyto1

Thank you, now that I can understand. As a country bumpkin 1 in 150 is a very low figure. I know it might be going up but still just find the panic wrong. Loss of jobs wrong. 1 in 150 infected and not everyone who is infected is going to need hospital treatment or die. Why are we panicking so much. What’s the daily infection rate in Sweden?

No one on this thread is panicking, that’s the point of it. And you don’t have to panic either. Be sensible, follow best practice with regard to health, take note of the numbers so you’re informed and get on with your life as best you can. Sweden is irrelevant.

I like some but not all of your ideas. Keeping kids in one room causes behaviour issues. Teachers' occupational health is important and bombing about form class to class with books and laptops and so one would damage many backs. Rapport built with older classes and knowledge of their skills and weaknesses will be torn apart by rejigging classes. That said, what I want is smaller classes and more bubbling and more SLT presence and some flaming open windows. I agree the obsession with setting and streaming could go. Ironically, though, teaching kids in forms in my school led to larger class sizes. Music and PE are all going ahead as normal in my school and it is all very fast and loose!

I think that stuff was updated yesterday MRex because it has removed the stuff about not being high risk settings and has added a fair amount about ventilation.

Thanks for signposting the mask stuff. Will reread. It's hard to spot the changes.

Looks like test results are getting slow again. Sky News reported only 15% were coming back in 24 hours. We ahve had several sixth formers waiting for five days now while potential contacts have been in school.

Health service spare capacity
is a key parameter that can determines how soon a country must act, what kind of safety margin in weeks the government has

This is where several years of NHS cuts really come home to roost
The government has little room for manoeuvre

Not just a UK problem:

There is serious danger across Europe that the deep but short "V-shaped" recession predicted will be turned into a "double-dip" recession by measures imposed through winter

Germany
Merkel warned months ago that even the German health system could be overwhelmed eventually
It might mean she & the 16 state leaders can tolerate 50,000+ daily cases or whatever for a while,
but eventually unless cases level off in Germany - currently 11k and rising - she will also have to impose much harsher measures that hammer the economy.

btw, Germany in the first wave took hundreds of ICU patients from several other EU countries
So Germany running out of capacity would have even wider implications - it's effectively the EU backstop

The Netherlands

Has been concerning for weeks now:

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-neighbors-react-to-second-coronavirus-wave/a-55335860

On Monday, the Netherlands recorded 8,015 new coronavirus infections — a worrying figure given that the country has a population of just 17 million people.

Indeed, the Amsterdam-based virologist Hans Zaaijer recently told the daily De Telegraaf that the Netherlands is edging toward a catastrophe.

The entire country has the capacity to treat just 1,150 patients in intensive care units at once.

NRW [one of the 16 German states] which borders the Netherlands, has a similar population size, yet sufficient ICU capacity to treat about 6,000 patients.

"What’s the daily infection rate in Sweden?"

Sweden has 1/12 the population density of the UK ...
and had 5-12 x total deaths / million of its Scandi / Nordic neighbours who locked down in the first wave

The UK before the March lockdown was following the death curves of other densely populated countries like italy, not the much lower curves of Scandi countries

Total Deaths / Million population of Scandi / Nordic countries

*585 Sweden

• 51 Norway * 63 FInland
• 117 Denmark

Graph of total deaths for the UK, Italy and the Scandi countries shows the different behaviour from back since the first 3 recorded deaths

@Choconuttolata - a lot of "if" in that article. It took me about 4 seconds to see links to say the Oxford trial is:

1. looking at over 70s covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/participate-bristol
2. planning deliberate exposure www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-54612293. Clearly didn't fit the narrative of the author. In fairness, she is trying to get the FDA to publish vaccine trial protocols, which seems like a reasonable request (why aren't they?), so she's fighting a different battle unrelated to the Oxford vaccine. But still, it undermines credibility in her stated concerns.

That graph was log scale; maybe this linear scale gives you a better feel for Sweden vs its Scandi neighbours

All the Scandi / Nordic countries have low population density
and are most unlikely to experience the kind of winter 2nd wave that could suddenly worsen the other countriies enough to reach Sweden's deths / million

Death rate was highest when Covid weas a "novel" virus back in the 1st wave; now doctors know far more about how to treat it

[quote MRex]@Choconuttolata - a lot of "if" in that article. It took me about 4 seconds to see links to say the Oxford trial is:

1. looking at over 70s covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/participate-bristol
2. planning deliberate exposure www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-54612293. Clearly didn't fit the narrative of the author. In fairness, she is trying to get the FDA to publish vaccine trial protocols, which seems like a reasonable request (why aren't they?), so she's fighting a different battle unrelated to the Oxford vaccine. But still, it undermines credibility in her stated concerns.[/quote] ... What we really need is a vaccination that will help the over-70s, Well, the over-60s really

This group form a minority of the infections, but the vast majority of deaths, across Europe
e.g. in Germany, 85% of deaths to date were in people aged 70+ but only 13% of all positives

An effective vaccination for the elderly is the game-changer we really need, to relax SD and restart the economies properly
Especially if the UK won't even vaccinate the under-50s in the general public or the kids, except ECV

@Piggywaspushed - I'm sure many of those suggestions wouldn't work for every school, they're all different. It just appears from hearing what some schools do that there is lots of scope within the guidelines and rather sad if other schools don't try anything. Anyway, to not divert too much - here are some updates that look relevant to specific things mentioned on these threads,.

Section 1, Prevention Point 2 - now added to "will have the discretion" an escalated bit:
"Where local restrictions apply
When an area moves to Local COVID Alert Level: high or very high, in settings where pupils in year 7 and above are educated, face coverings should be worn by adults and pupils when moving around the premises, outside of classrooms, such as in corridors and communal areas where social distancing cannot easily be maintained."

Point 8) Ventilation has definitely been updated, because it signposts mechanical ventilation guidance now (it annoyed me before that it didn't, not everybody is up to speed with air con Covid system risks) and suggests extra clothing now.

It mentions the app; "some students in year 11, and the majority of students in years 12 and above will be eligible to use the app and benefit from its features. Staff members will also be able to use the app."

A very interesting bit that looks new, or I haven't noticed before: "In the event that a parent or guardian insists on a child attending school, schools can take the decision to refuse the child if in their reasonable judgement it is necessary to protect their pupils and staff from possible infection with coronavirus (COVID-19)."

Intro to bringing shielding back, they've linked to the 13th October advice.

Excellent work MRex! Be lovely if the DfE highlighted their changes!

"In the event that a parent or guardian insists on a child attending school, schools can take the decision to refuse the child if in their reasonable judgement it is necessary to protect their pupils and staff from possible infection with coronavirus (COVID-19)."

That could affect some kids with SEN
Does it apply to NT mask-refusers ?

In one german state that originally ordered masks in secondary classrooms, a court ruled that a school could not send home an (NT) mask-refuser who was otherwise well-behaved

Does anyone know the legal situation in the UK ?
In practice, a parent can state their child cannot wear a mask for MH / PTSD or whatever health reason

• can the school demand proof, or just send the child home regardless, if that is deemed necessary to protect others ?

There will be other stuff to find I expect, I'm a pattern spotter and skim reader. Why don't they do a version with track changes anyway? The list at the top says things like "Section 1", which is huge.
Suggestion for schools. Copy it into Word, save. Next time copy into Word again with track changes on, see changes.
Or you could use the Wayback machine to spot changes from the last version (78 published changes since July!): <a class="break-all" href="https://web.archive.org/web//www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions-for-schools-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/guidance-for-full-opening-schools#main-changes-since-this-guidance-was-last-updated" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">web.archive.org/web//www.gov.uk/government/publications/actions-for-schools-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/guidance-for-full-opening-schools#main-changes-since-this-guidance-was-last-updated

I'm in the netherlands and finally since 2 weeks more measures are mandatory.
until then they were counting on 'common sense'.

situation is dire, especially in the 'randstad' area (rotterdam, the hague, amsterdam)

our neighbour, healthy in her 50s, had covid-19 in june. she is still coughing her lung out now and had to buy an electric bike as she doesn't have the energy to cycle still.

Sweden has 1/12 the population density of the UK …

To avoid this spurious comparison, can we compare Stockholm to Glasgow or Sheffield or Bradford, it is misleading to compare countries by population density when so much of it is uninhabited, the areas where people live is what actually matters.

(Not that I actually disagree that Sweden had a high number of covid deaths compared to what it could have achieved, it's just the arctic forests are completely irrelevant.)

We don't say Scotland which has 1/8th the population density of England is doing terribly on the same metric, because what actually matters is the cities, not the empty lands around them.

@BigChocFrenzy - there's a section on mask exemptions, I don't think that would fly, it's in a section specifically about not getting test results. I also don't think teachers are monstrous enough to attempt that.

wrt school, teachers are behind a clear shower curtain screen at their desk in class and are wearing masks when sd is not possible.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Sweden has 1/12 the population density of the UK …

To avoid this spurious comparison, can we compare Stockholm to Glasgow or Sheffield or Bradford, it is misleading to compare countries by population density when so much of it is uninhabited, the areas where people live is what actually matters.

(Not that I actually disagree that Sweden had a high number of covid deaths compared to what it could have achieved, it's just the arctic forests are completely irrelevant.)

We don't say Scotland which has 1/8th the population density of England is doing terribly on the same metric, because what actually matters is the cities, not the empty lands around them.

Whats economic inequality and deprivation like in Stockholm?

The UK covid pattern is currently mirroring this pattern with an alarming degree of correlation. Is there somewhere in the uk which is similar in terms of size / economic profile to Stockholm?

"In the event that a parent or guardian insists on a child attending school, schools can take the decision to refuse the child if in their reasonable judgement it is necessary to protect their pupils and staff from possible infection with coronavirus (COVID-19)."

TBH, I suspect that is more about giving schools the explicit ability to refuse to take a child where they have a reasonable suspicion that they may have been exposed directly and should be quarantining, or even have symptoms but parents are denying it/refusing to take them for tests/saying they have had a test but they haven't....

@sirfredfredgeorge

Sweden has 1/12 the population density of the UK …

To avoid this spurious comparison, can we compare Stockholm to Glasgow or Sheffield or Bradford, it is misleading to compare countries by population density when so much of it is uninhabited, the areas where people live is what actually matters.

(Not that I actually disagree that Sweden had a high number of covid deaths compared to what it could have achieved, it's just the arctic forests are completely irrelevant.)

We don't say Scotland which has 1/8th the population density of England is doing terribly on the same metric, because what actually matters is the cities, not the empty lands around them.

... Population density is rough & reaady, but it's a decent rule of thumb for the Scandi countries

Sweden is far closer in population spread and non-huggy culture to its Scandi / Nordic neighbours than it is to the UK

How many cities and big towns does England have and what distance between them ?
London alone has about 90% of the population of Sweden

Look at this long list of cities and towns - Sweden has nothing like this
https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/

Sweden has the highest number of single person households in Europe, > 50%
That makes a massive difference in household spread and is indicated within the pop density

Look at the death curves in the graphs above

the low pop density and high pop countries behaved very differently even before lockdown

Population of Stockholm is 1 million, so ~ 10% of the population of Sweden

I heard in reports that many people moved out from Stockholm into their country 2nd homes, early on
so Stockholm was about half-full

Also, Germany has a lot of bigger cities with more international connections than Sweden, even though nothing like London

Nothing could justify Sweden having ~ 5.5 x deaths per million of Germany - which locked down

Deaths / Million population

118 Germany
*585 Sweden

• 51 Norway 63 Finland*
• 117 Denmark