Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Did they go through the schools data in the press conference (I haven't managed to find that bit yet if so).

It looks pretty comprehensive! And it answers some of the questions we've been asking on here!

My local M&S roped off most of the store during lockdown, just the food hall open. Were they all like that? Other shops seemed to sell anything if they sold food e.g. my local Range has a small Iceland and the whole shop was open, I'm not sure exactly when they opened as I wasn't going out for alot of lockdown.

@herecomesthsun

Did they go through the schools data in the press conference (I haven't managed to find that bit yet if so).

It looks pretty comprehensive! And it answers some of the questions we've been asking on here!

No one not Boone! Fml I have fat fingers sorry.

So sport I am having a bad day when it comes to typing!

Fascinating graph here. The original graph was produced in July as a reasonable worst case scenario. acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/51353957 And they’ve now overlaid the actual deaths on top

Figure 4. Our reasonable worst-case scenario for the winter COVID-19 epidemic in the UK. (B) COVID-19-attributable deaths in hospital (i.e. excluding care homes and excess deaths in the community). The solid line shows the median, dark band the interquartile range, and pale band the 95% credible interval (CrI).

The rehab centres for long covid are called Seacole Centres, the first one has opened in Surrey but I don't know what the plans are for others.

I assume they are named after Mary Seacole.

I think we have established I cannot type or even get choose the correct post to reply to. My question still stands though why are we not talking about this in terms of percentages???

@pussycatinboots

Supermarkets told sell only essentials in Wales lockdown

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54648194

I appreciate this is a pure data only thread, but some people only look here for covid info

OMG who on earth decides what is essential, can the Welsh have a bottle of wine or nice cake?

Less than 1% though still seems such a low figure. I’m afraid I really find it hard to digest that’s all.

@RedToothBrush

What do you think? Nightingale to take patients to prevent where they would otherwise be bed blocking but can't go into a care home due to covid status?

Wouldn't be the worst idea I guess.

Manchester Nightingale was never designed as an intensive care facility and always as a "step down" recovery unit.

That graph troodon, scary.

@Madmummyto1

Even with 90k as the figure of cases it is still less than 1%of the population 0.13% using my previous figure for UK population. The percentages are really low but no one seems to be saying this. Even the percentages in the north of England are still really low. Just don’t understand why Boone is discussing this in terms of percentage of population infected.

.... That's 90k new cases per day or 70k if we take the mean estimate That soon adds up and "bakes in" hospitalisations and deaths

It is the hospitalisations & ICU that are the issue:

when there are no more beds, then what ?
Whether people die of Covid, or die of other things because there are no beds, total deaths start to rocket
It's best not to let it get to that

There is the alternative of triage, as doctors were planning in N Italy back in March and NYC doctors a bit later:
boiled down to no treatment for the over-60s
But that is ..... controversial

@Madmummyto1

Even with 90k as the figure of cases it is still less than 1%of the population 0.13% using my previous figure for UK population. The percentages are really low but no one seems to be saying this. Even the percentages in the north of England are still really low. Just don’t understand why Boone is discussing this in terms of percentage of population infected.

Well, this is the incidence, the figure of daily infections. It is also growing exponentially (thank God, more slowly than back in March).

So as things stand this figure will be doubling every 7-10 days or so, maybe picking up speed as the numbers grow.

And, although people can get re-infected, the virus is going to be moving through the population. So, even if only 0.13% are infected now, with the likely growth in the daily number getting infected, and the cumulatve growth every day over the winter, we are going to end up with a sizeable number of people exposed to covid. (But it's really hard to predict how many)

As the number of people exposed to covid grows, the particular concern is that it may infect people in more vulnerable groups, whom we would like to protect, but who cannot be completely isolated from the rest of society.

It might help to stick with the daily incidence figure in 100s as probably people remember the figures from the summer and can compare the 53-90k with the lower figures then. Also it is slightly less abstract to talk about actual numbers than about a percentage.

How do you think discussing the incidence as a % would help us understand this better?

Mrex it's so incredibly hard to teach at secondary level without going to specialised rooms. It's much easier to control outbreaks or limit in primary.

41,622 new cases for France today. And 162 deaths.

At the press conference today the PM said we have 15 day doubling and that we’d be at 50,000 cases per day in 2 weeks Somehow I don’t thinks it’s going to take 15 days.

I think you are scaremongering. I am just being honest when I say I really think the whole thing is overblown. I wish people would talk in terms of real numbers, like 1 in 1000 people are likely to be infected etc. But no one is, it’s all scaremongering. The death figures for people no pre-existing medical conditions dying are really low. You can find these on the ONS site. The percentages of people loosing their livelihoods must be much much higher. I’m sorry but I find it hard to accept that this has been worth it. Hate me if you like, think I’m stupid but I cannot panic about this. My biggest stress is the thought of losing my job if my area goes into another lockdown(trust me the business may not survive) I may be selfish but no job, no house seems far worse to me. Yet keep pushing on with lockdowns and tier 3s and firebreaks and other such nonsense. Fed up with it all is an understatement.

@Madmummyto1

I think you are scaremongering. I am just being honest when I say I really think the whole thing is overblown. I wish people would talk in terms of real numbers, like 1 in 1000 people are likely to be infected etc. But no one is, it’s all scaremongering. The death figures for people no pre-existing medical conditions dying are really low. You can find these on the ONS site. The percentages of people loosing their livelihoods must be much much higher. I’m sorry but I find it hard to accept that this has been worth it. Hate me if you like, think I’m stupid but I cannot panic about this. My biggest stress is the thought of losing my job if my area goes into another lockdown(trust me the business may not survive) I may be selfish but no job, no house seems far worse to me. Yet keep pushing on with lockdowns and tier 3s and firebreaks and other such nonsense. Fed up with it all is an understatement.

.... The NHS statistics for Covid deaths with "existing conditions" includes ALL the conditions they monitor, not just those that significantly increase risk, or indeed increase risk at all

So it includes e.g. those with autism, LDs, past treatment for MH as well as asthma

The NHS statistics also include people with conditions that DO increase risk,
e.g. T1, T2, kidney problems and a multitude of other conditions that are NOT terminal.
but people normally live several decades with some of these conditions; they study, work and bring up families
They are a sizeable proportion of the population, especially age 40+

NHS figures for total deaths with existing conditions to 30 September include e.g.

1,213 received past treatment for MH
527 LDs and / or autism
1,849 asthma
plus a host of other conditions that are far from terminal

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/10/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-1-October-2020-weekly-file-1.xlsx

@Madmummyto1 - they're infectious for 10 days on average, so multiply all your new infections by 10.

Nightingales - very poorly people spend a LONG time in hospital; it's hospital rehab, not discharged rehab - that's the Seacoles (who presumably must also pick up Long Covid?).
A friend of mine was doing rehab post ICU in wave 1, she said the intended use varies by area but the London intention was:

1. Those who are out of ICU but still need weeks or months of care until discharge (therapies, drugs, 24*7 monitoring, let neck recover and relearn how to eat/ drink), with PPE etc because patients can test infectious for a long while.
2. If there is a massive over-run, oxygen patients to be transferred to nightingales that are well set up for it.
3. Originally it was thought that long-term ventilator patients might move. The issue with moving ICU patients turned out to be that many need so much support from so many specialists, they aren't just put on a ventilator and turned over regularly. I'm not involved with any hospitals, anyone who is can correct me as needed, things might have changed because we talked about this months ago, or plans may vary by area.

"I find it hard to accept that this has been worth it. Hate me if you like, think I’m stupid but I cannot panic about this. My biggest stress is the thought of losing my job if my area goes into another lockdown"

I genuinely sympathise with everyone scared for their job and think you are sensible to be concerned
I hope you are ok 💐

There has to be a balance
I don't know if the government have got the balance right - they've fucked up just about everything so far -
and they definitely are not offering enough financial support,
while spaffing billions up the wall and managed by Dido, Tory Queen of Carnage

However, the situation wrt hospitals is genuinely serious and can't just be ignored

I wish people would talk in terms of real numbers, like 1 in 1000 people are likely to be infected etc

Well - in England, it's around 1 in 150 people currently infected.

The issue with Nightingales is whether anyone has managed to pull trained staff out of their arse to go with patients they send,
because reportedly the Nightingales still don't have their own staff ?

Thank you, now that I can understand. As a country bumpkin 1 in 150 is a very low figure. I know it might be going up but still just find the panic wrong. Loss of jobs wrong. 1 in 150 infected and not everyone who is infected is going to need hospital treatment or die. Why are we panicking so much. What’s the daily infection rate in Sweden?

The numbers coming out across Europe (including U.K.) are very worrying.

I follow, amongst other things, bno newsroom for reliable, up to the minute updates on figures. They only focus on when there are highest numbers reported, so take that into account. Also, No detail like rp or journalist coverage like Helen Branswell or Kai Kumpferschmidt, but still useful.

This is what they have today.

France

• New cases: 41,622
• Positivity rate: 14.3% (+0.6)
• In hospital: 14,032 (+847)
• In ICU: 2,319 (+71)
• New deaths: 165

Spain

• New cases: 20,986
• Positivity rate: 12.4% (+1.5)
• In hospital: 14,160 (+462)
• In ICU: 1,966 (+36)
• New deaths: 155

Italy

• New cases: 16,079
• Positivity rate: 15.3% (+1.0)
• In hospital: 9,694 (+637)
• In ICU: 992 (+66)
• New deaths: 136

Germany (yesterday)

• New cases: 10,463
• In hospital: 4,440 estimated (+277)
• In ICU: 947 (+67)
• New deaths: 45

I think there is scaremongering going on and things are at a critical point in terms of possible trajectory. I do think there is a cooling down going on though too.

If school is driving it then that looks to have peaked. Outside a school setting transmission will slow down purely because of numbers and less contact points possible. If schools have peaked then how/why have they peaked?

It is going into the older population which is a problem but there should be far less capacity for it to spread as fast once its passed through the schools.

I do think theres a stabilising of the current numbers going on now. That might not mean a drop in cases rather a flat lining as i dont think restrictions are enough in some places.

I think the question is one about what capacity is there to go higher at what pace right now.