Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Cases are down for the 3rd day I believe

Patricia I just gloomily averaged the last 3 official figures, but you are right that the average looks to be < 200
.... I predict > 200 regularly very soon though

@CoronaIsWatching

Cases are down for the 3rd day I believe

.... Day before yesterday was slightly higher at 21,331

and yesterday was much higher than the day before

Today Cases 21,242 ..... (26,688 21,331 18,804 16,982 16,171 15,650 18,980 19,724 17,234 13,972, 12,872, 15,166, 13,864)

Leading health experts have revealed the true number of coronavirus patients requiring critical care in Greater Manchester's hospitals.

Approximately 35pc of the region's critical care beds are currently occupied by Covid patients.

The Manchester Evening News can report the most up-to-date Intensive Care Unit figures after a briefing by regional Public Health leaders this morning. Hospitals and NHS England had previously declined to reveal them.

It was also confirmed that Manchester's Nightingale North West hospital will reopen by the end of next week.

The relief hospital will not operate as a critical care facility, but a place to rehabilitate people with Covid-19.

and

On Wednesday, there were 218 patients in critical care, including 95 with Covid.

Capacity in critical care in Greater Manchester is just over 400 beds.

and

“The impact of that is that we now have about 35pc of our critical care beds occupied with Covid patients," Dr Eddleston told the briefing.

"When one looks at 35pc you might think well, that’s not a lot. But you have to recognise what I said a moment ago about protecting some of the other patient groups who come into critical care.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/true-intensive-care-unit-figures-19148243

Hospitalisations:

UK total ~ 6,500 from today's presser
and here are the regions, with NW, NE and Yorkshire dominating of course, but Midlands catching up

Cases & rates in English Regions

I blocked out the last 2 "data lag" days

Again, funny how this information has been released TODAY. AFTER the decision about Manchester.

@PatriciaHolm sorry, I'm being a bit thick (been a long ass week) Id registered the 1058 as being the number on a ventilator. Apologies, can I skirt on by and keep lurking now, pretend I didn't just make a plonker of myself.

"The relief hospital will not operate as a critical care facility, but a place to rehabilitate people with Covid-19"

Rehab ? That's interesting

@PatriciaHolm

So if my maths is right in the UK only 0.05% of the population are estimated to be infected. That is 1 person in 2,000. I divided the estimated population of the UK (67,886,004 according to Wikipedia!) by the estimated number of Covid cases in the UK (36,909 according to the link above ourworldindata.org)

Happy for you to correct my sloppy maths but that seems really low numbers for our extreme response to this. (Just waiting for the abuse to start now) I’m really struggling to understand the panic to be honest.

Supermarkets told sell only essentials in Wales lockdown

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54648194

I appreciate this is a pure data only thread, but some people only look here for covid info

@BigChocFrenzy

"The relief hospital will not operate as a critical care facility, but a place to rehabilitate people with Covid-19"

Rehab ? That's interesting

People who need to go to care homes?

What do you think? Nightingale to take patients to prevent where they would otherwise be bed blocking but can't go into a care home due to covid status?

Wouldn't be the worst idea I guess.

@Madmummyto1

So if my maths is right in the UK only 0.05% of the population are estimated to be infected. That is 1 person in 2,000. I divided the estimated population of the UK (67,886,004 according to Wikipedia!) by the estimated number of Covid cases in the UK (36,909 according to the link above ourworldindata.org)

Happy for you to correct my sloppy maths but that seems really low numbers for our extreme response to this. (Just waiting for the abuse to start now) I’m really struggling to understand the panic to be honest.

Sloppy writing. I divided the estimated cases by the estimated population then x by 100 for a percentage!!!! Ooops

It will be interesting to see the figures tomorrow, if the cases are down again that's a definite trend I would say.

[quote LivinLaVidaLoki]@PatriciaHolm sorry, I'm being a bit thick (been a long ass week) Id registered the 1058 as being the number on a ventilator. Apologies, can I skirt on by and keep lurking now, pretend I didn't just make a plonker of myself.[/quote]
eeeek yes I can see how that would have given you a fright! Oops. ;-)

@Madmummyto1

So if my maths is right in the UK only 0.05% of the population are estimated to be infected. That is 1 person in 2,000. I divided the estimated population of the UK (67,886,004 according to Wikipedia!) by the estimated number of Covid cases in the UK (36,909 according to the link above ourworldindata.org)

Happy for you to correct my sloppy maths but that seems really low numbers for our extreme response to this. (Just waiting for the abuse to start now) I’m really struggling to understand the panic to be honest.

.... Our world in data is not up to date and sometimes not accurate

Government briefing today is that there are 52,000 - 90,000 new cases daily

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/928812/Presssconferenceslidess-Thursdayy22Octoberr.pdf

Some of these, mostly the middle-aged & elderly, need hospitalisation; some of these need ICU
Hospitals and ICUs are gradually filling up

That is the main issue:
If we allow them to get completely full, there is no room for either Covid or Non-Covid cases, which would cause deaths from all causes to shoot up

So, act in time to avoid this

• and avoid the NHS having to triage those it treats and those it can't, on the basis of capacity rather thn clinical need.

@Madmummyto1

So if my maths is right in the UK only 0.05% of the population are estimated to be infected. That is 1 person in 2,000. I divided the estimated population of the UK (67,886,004 according to Wikipedia!) by the estimated number of Covid cases in the UK (36,909 according to the link above ourworldindata.org)

Happy for you to correct my sloppy maths but that seems really low numbers for our extreme response to this. (Just waiting for the abuse to start now) I’m really struggling to understand the panic to be honest.

That current infected number is out by a factor of 10.

According to the last ONS study - "An estimated 336,500 people (95% credible interval: 312,200 to 362,000) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 2 to 8 October 2020".

It will be higher this week, in the report out tomorrow.

362,000/55,000,000 (England numbers) = 0.66%.

Which is currently resulting in an average of 150 deaths a day, and that's from infections acquired a couple of weeks ago.

So "for rehab" must either mean those who aren't allowed back into their care homes, and maybe younger patients who are out of ICU but still need hospital care?

@pussycatinboots

Supermarkets told sell only essentials in Wales lockdown

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54648194

I appreciate this is a pure data only thread, but some people only look here for covid info

There is no precise list of non-essential goods in the law coming into force on Friday, but any business selling goods or services for sale or hire in a shop will have to close.

Good luck to Mark Drakeford on making the supermarkets sell only essentials with that then. How the heck is is going to enforce it? Send the police to Tesco or Asda to do exactly what???

I can't say I'd be putting in measures with 24hours to go to stop my store from selling anything if I could legally open and there's no list of whats 'non-essential' that I can't sell, if I were a supermarket manager in Wales!

MadMummy
If we take a rough average of those 52-90k new cases daily, say ~70,000 daily
then ~0.1 % of the UK population is being newly infected each day

Even a fatality rate of ~0.6% soon starts causing a lot of deaths when cases add up to hundreds ot thousands and then millions in total having been infected

For those aged 80+, even 65+ (some still working, supporting young adults) ... the rate is much higher than 0.6%

red In my area at least of Germany, during lockdown, shops roped off areas with goods they couldn't sell
even our local little Apothek (chemist)

At least the larger chains of supermarkets etc would not dare risk breaking the law, if that were made law
Whether it should be law .... another matter entirely

In terms of the widely reported and discussed schools attendance data, whilst their system has improved there are still significant flaws in the way absence is reported, leading to a significant under selling of the issue. This from Schoolsweek:

While the government’s latest attendance statistics provide the most comprehensive guide to school disruption yet, they still fail to show the whole picture.
The data does not reveal the percentage of schools reporting pupils staying at home because of potential Covid contact outside the classroom, despite collecting the relevant data.
The estimated four to five per cent in state-funded schools who did not attend included pupils who said they had had potential Covid contact outside school.
However, the 21 per cent of all state-funded schools with pupils isolating only refer to those with a “potential contact with a case of coronavirus inside the school”.
The DfE’s daily attendance survey asks schools to input pupils remaining at home because of potential contact outside the setting, but these have not been included within its statistics.
Julie McCulloch, the director of policy at the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said it would “encourage the DfE” to clarify why this had happened. “It is important to have a complete picture of the disruption experienced by schools.”
The department said it continually reviewed the data it published alongside the quality of the data it collected

Even with 90k as the figure of cases it is still less than 1%of the population 0.13% using my previous figure for UK population. The percentages are really low but no one seems to be saying this. Even the percentages in the north of England are still really low. Just don’t understand why Boone is discussing this in terms of percentage of population infected.