Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@MRex

Certain areas in the north of England have never voted for a conservative government, but clearly their local leaders have also mostly been urging caution over covid. Types of job, isolation payments etc are clearly relevant, as would be any research about general authority mistrust leading to failure to follow guidance, but isn't the miner's strike discussion far off topic? Or has it actually been cited by any research as a reason why there are higher covid cases right now in some parts of the country?

... I suspect there is a higher level of mistrust and antogonism to the state, where there are folk memories of past oppression by the state and particularly committed by the same party in power

I'd expect higher levels of trust in areas that have not experienced this

However, I agree we should not rerun bitter debate about historical crimes

Are there recent studies / polls by region of SD compliance and / or trust in govt handling & strategy for Covid ?

Bcf people dont read as much now. And i find that the central pillar of the bbc as part of cultural life has gone. Once upon a time when there were 4 (or 3) channels everyone would watch the same things and this included the 6pm news. We also read newspapers more. So people were effectively being educated about the world and news even if they didn't realise. The number of people who listen to the news, read the news or watch the news has dropped significantly with the advent of the internet and multi channel tv. Even people who are vaguely interested tend to follow stories that are relevant / of interest to them rather than challenging their own view points. The arrival of the echo chamber is bad because people dont look at the structure of institutions and their importance, they only look at 'sides'.

I have talked a lot about this over the past 4 years and i still think people miss my point about this and think its about being anti-Tory. I don't think it is because i have similar criticisms for all parties about how they have played their part in this dynamic to the detriment of the public.

Its funny how a public health crisis ultimately is the vehicle through which this process can be speeded up and the degree to which so many people, including those who are educated and politically aware have been completely unaware of it.

The teaching of history isnt merely about what happened, its about why it happened. Its not about individuals and leaders. Its about shifts in political direction and the values and priorities that society has.

This isnt going to change with a change of government or leader. There are generational issues and clashes that are ongoing and we have to confront. Covid displays this very well tbh.

I get called a pessimist a lot for my observation and understanding of this. I would quite like to be optimistic but if you are paying attention there are not a lot of things happening which can actually be measured and reflected on that say much different. Realism isnt considered socially acceptable because people would rather wrap themselves up in Netflicks, Amazon Prime, the latest computer game and the fantasies that echo chambers allow. We swallow what we are told and dont question the narrative and the agenda as critical thinking is discouraged by all political perspectives.

Until people start to realise what is important and what protects them they will do nothing.

@BatSegundo
This is totally anecdotal but this end we have had 3 tests in August, September and October (different family members). August one took 22h, September 27ish h (not bad on both counts) but this week’s took about 56z

The OP link to Cities & big towns (listed under miscell) has more detailled info about spending, internal and from visitors.

www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Here are Manchester, Liverpool, London

As a baseline - in lockdown, every region had reduced mobility: www.imperial.ac.uk/news/197835/mobile-data-shows-high-compliance-with/.
(Report: www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-24-uk-mobility/).

There was a big difference in getting moving in July: www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-06-29-britain-reluctant-move-covid-19-advice-not-if-it-sunny#. NE 70%, SW 60%, London 36%.

I can't find any regional compliance research that's been recently published, interested to read it if anyone else can.

Plymouth, Gloucester, Exeter

Spending drop doesn't seem as bad as NW cities or London

I only have that OP link to cities & big towns, but that gives a rough picture if one has time to flip through all of them in the pulldown menu

Interesting discussion - because it infuriates me (a) how little of British social history are children are taught and (b) how they no longer seem to be taught to think for themselves. As an aside the BLM movement seem to assume everyone was a great Churchill fan despite him not being re-elected after the war. He was considered a disaster in world war one for the Gallipolli campaign.

Imperial modelling - here www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-26-mobility-transmission/

said " small increases in contact rates are likely to risk resurgence even where COVID-19 is apparently under control. Overall, strong population-wide social-distancing measures are effective to control COVID-19; however gradual easing of restrictions must be accompanied by alternative interventions, such as efficient contact-tracing, to ensure control. "

It doesnt need major differences in compliance to send this out of control .

I think much of my social history knowledge was not even in school, but by listening to memories and discussions of older generations

There were far fewer means of entertainment, basically 3 TV channels and for limited periods of the day.
So a lot more talking within the family and our family meeting up with my parents generation

• btw, social events and TV etc were geared to what they wanted, not child-friendly activities, so I learned a lot that way.

As well as far more social history on those channels and on radio - we used to listen to R4 etc as a family and the topics would come up in talks later in the weeks

Teachers did have the freedom to leave the syllabus for some lessons and discuss current affairs and events,
e.g. a 19th century history lesson that became a discussion of Bloody Sunday in NI a few days after the atrocity
I remember that lesson 50 years later; it made us all think about the use of force and the state vs the people

That teacher would probably be chuffed about how that lesson among many others then, taught us to think, not blindly accept that the govt has our best interests at heart

Hmm @Frazzled2207 The data was suggesting that, after turnaround times got longer from the late summer through to the end of September, they then started to improve again in the 7 days up till October 7th. However, all anecdotal, but this thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4052036-Time-taken-to-get-test-results?pg=2 suggests we're not alone in experiencing longer waits than advertised this week.

I wonder if the increase in testing capacity started to meet demand but has been swamped again as the numbers of symptomatic people has grown? If so, the daily figures levelling off might not be as encouraging as I'd hoped. If that's what's going on, presumably we won't know until Thursday's report comes out? Or is there other data that could rule out delays with testing being a problem this week?

Re that Gloucester economy graph - Covid Messenger tells me the rate in the city is 70/100K. Fairly relaxed atmosphere. No social distancing among young people as far as I can see.

I can tell you straight off there's not a huge amount of compliance with tier3 guidelines on movement going on. For it to be viable it needs to be a legal requirement. There was a report in the press that Blackpool was reporting a rise in bookings from Liverpool before Tier 3 was put in there and ive since had someone tell me first hand they know this is going on elsewhere because the hotel and leisure centre they work at has had similar and they dont quite know what to do about it. They need the money but can they / should they refuse bookings from Liverpool when there is no legal requirement to do so?

Its not been helped by the closure of the Welsh Border which does have legal teeth and people scrambling around at the last minute to get a booking somewhere / anywhere.

Apparently the Lake District is booked up to the hilt for Half Term as it is. So far only Lancashire is under restrictions not Cumbria. Cumbria is in a bit of a difficult position here as it relies on the tourism but it had an older population and has a very low number of beds per head of population. We are all aware of how earlier in the year people were being told to stay away from the Lakes, but we don't seem to be hearing the same noise now. Is that because the area is being hit hard financially? Or just covid fatigue? Or being drowned out? It seems odd we are not hearing about concerns along these lines yet.

So I think its definitely worth keeping a close eye on numbers in counties surrounding the Liverpool City and Lancashire area for another steep increase in cases and what happens this week with Cumbria.

I think we are going to hear a lot more about a lack of compliance over t3 restrictions over the next week. And the reasons for this are both along the lines of financial worries and lack of legal backup.

Of course this all plays into politics but i am left with the sense that the government really aren't that interest in primarily controlling the virus when a good old fashioned political fudge which can be blamed on others rather than them will do.

It just starting to really grate with me tbh. I dont think im alone.

There is a delaying the Scottish figures today, from the Scottish government dashboard.

Alreadytaken; fascinating prof just now on Radio 4 about the Bengal famine during WW2. Killed more than WW2 conflict did.

I agree with you. Hierarchies of sources too, critical analysis etc

Sounds like this might impact the uk wide figures today. Or maybe it's just Glasgow and they are denying responsibility

64,000 from across the UK in 3 days Fri-Sun = 21k tests/day or about 14%. If there were 18,000 positive cases we'd expect to see 15,500 registered today. So we should be able to account for it.

Processes running every day will get intermittent issues of staff absence, facility problems, ingredient shortage etc. The issue isn't whether those tests take an extra day or two IMO, it's unavoidable that this sort of thing will happen where tests then need to be diverted elsewhere, it's whether capacity is increasing sufficiently to give head-room for the intermittent problems. Has anyone seen an update that gives precise plans for test expansion and when we expect to get past having delayed results?

16982 positive today. still low-ish by recent standards.

I agree on history teaching. For me the good thing is that I have another countries (also very skewed) textbooks to rely on and asked my mother to buy them for us and send it over.

The other problem is that it's in bits and pieces. In our school "spacing topics out"* is the trend. This means that they are not doing things in chronological order and nowhere in the curr. is there a reconciliatory term where they comb their knowledge and put things in order.
And some topics are way over emphasized. Like brits seem to be obsessed with ww1. My son learnt about it 2x in primary, and now again this term. And it is layering it age appropriately, it is still piecemeal.

*They do this with maths as well which annoys the hell out of me.
For this half term homeschooling all our topics are going to revolve around respiratory system (same as school), viruses, bonds (=school), physics of how things travel in air/water/...., statistics...

**I started high school (14) when the US invaded Iraq (or defended Kuwait, whichever you prefer). Our history teacher let us watch CNN and had a few lessons discussing it.
Albeit no idea why CNN as I was the only person in the room who spoke english.... And to me it was more of a trauma as I grew up in Iraq. But in hindesite the teacher was correct and good to differ from the curr. My circumstances were extra unique.

From the outside it looks like test capacity is following the weekday/weekend pattern. Which I don't understand. I'm sure they could have organized it better not to have glaring weekend drops. It is just a matter of rotation and paying overtime. So when they are planning on upscaling wonder if they will be thinking of rewiring the working pattern?

Spending drop doesn't seem as bad as NW cities or London I wonder how it would measure up to previous years, down here we lost alot of trade at Easter, half term, it did start to pick up in July and August was busy but not at normal levels I don't think. We are so seasonal, people panicking about the loss of trade for the end of October, the last two weeks of October tend to be the last boost before Christmas. The Turkey and Tinsel holidays keep alot of hotels going but I'm not sure if they will be as popular this year. January, February, March are a very barren time so if they haven't fattened up enough it will be dire.

The traditional bucket and spade holidays have been under pressure for along time, one big hope is that people will be more likely to choose to holiday in England.

I suppose the other big industry is food one way or another, fishing, farming and food processing. I assume they have kept going at reasonably normal levels. I'm thinking of Devon and Cornwall more than the wider south west, don't think there is a fishing fleet in Gloucestershire.

Jeremy Farrar from the Wellcome Trust was on Sky news earlier and saying that the ONS figures are the most reliable and will likely show 50,000 cases today. He also said that the best course of action was a lockdown nationwide now to reduce the R rate, allow NHS to make arrangements, etc. The interview is worth looking at if you can.

I wouldn't excuse poor conditions and problems for domestic DV, so I certainly won't excuse police for being very violent in their public duties

Please don't twist my words, I find that very offensive. None of the officers I worked with were violent, however, if you think a man who is worried about his pregnant wife, his baby which didn't survive and his other children was on a big charm offensive you must be dreaming.

Many took great delight in being paid huge amounts for overtime to hit people with impunity

I mentioned that, lots did love the money but to be fair they were spat at and assaulted, living in bad conditions and away from home for weeks at a time. They did earn the money.

@Goldistheanswer

Jeremy Farrar from the Wellcome Trust was on Sky news earlier and saying that the ONS figures are the most reliable and will likely show 50,000 cases today. He also said that the best course of action was a lockdown nationwide now to reduce the R rate, allow NHS to make arrangements, etc. The interview is worth looking at if you can.

Will second that. He followed Gove and was much better at explaining himself.