Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Looking at the numbers by date of specimen, it is pretty clear that there is a backlog relating to the past few days (from 14/10 onwards).

However, assuming that the numbers for Mon-Tue (12/10 and 13/10) are nearly final, we are indeed seeing the slowdown in the upward trend.

Goldistheanswer, I second your recommendation. The Jeremy Farrar was well worth watching.

Sorry RigaBalsam I'll have to third it.

wintertravel one of my kids waited 72 hours for their test result, test done 14th and got back yesterday. Happy to say it was negative.

It's very odd that the ONS and other community surveys suggested community daily incidence of 22,700-74,000 cases (see slide 2 from 16th October here. From the broadcast on 16th October, the likely actual daily prevalence was around 40-50, 0000. This is in line with the previous prediction for October (and with exponential growth is heading towards the numbers in mid March).

But yet the Test and Trace figures show lower figures - is this because Test and Trace are so inefficient?

Also, if schoolchildren have not been tested, yet rates in years 7-11 are thought to have grown 20 or 30 fold since September, how many of the missing cases are in untested secondary school children?

On the university postcodes issue - my daughter is at uni, has symptoms, and felt too unwell to do the 40 minute walk to the test centre so she applied for a postal one. It said it could not confirm her identity and she ended up having to put her home address in, in order to get one. It gave her an option to put in a different delivery address.

Cases seem to have stopped rising, possibly even declinning. Restrictions working? Or perhaps weekend figures

Weekend, and Scotland are having issues with case results as well at the moment.

@Jenasaurus

Cases seem to have stopped rising, possibly even declinning. Restrictions working? Or perhaps weekend figures

But need to be compared with tests processed and that data hasn't been updated since Friday.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Benjamin Franklin

Apologies late to the discussion but I am also very interested in the lack of social history knowledge in the wider population. I agree with BCF the fact that children can consume their own entertainment means that they lose out on the knowledge when the house only had one TV. I also find fb etc very boring and one dimensional. Whilst MN has its fairshare of drivel the quality of conversation on many threads has challenged and interested me in a way very few platforms do. My biggest concern is that the govt is running like it's on fb.

@Goldistheanswer Thanks, managed to catch part of that on sky, it was being repeated.

Didnt hear the bengal famine bit - but perhaps another example of where you should not uncritically accept the current accepted narrative winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu/did-churchill-cause-the-bengal-famine/ (dont accept that uncritically either but consider whether the current accepted narrative is entirely accurate).

Northwest is still showing an increasing proportion of the covid bed use in England and accounts for over a third of the total. I'm still not seeing justification for a national lockdown because that would cause more economic damage than is necessary. However if the government wants to protect the economy, instead of looking only at where to place the blame, they should be making travel restrictions more severe and enforcing them.

The south west suffered more than was necessary in the first lockdown because we didnt have evidence of transmission in camp sites or self catering accommodation and that should have reopened before it was permitted. Hotels were a bit more dubious.

@RedToothBrush far from the Liberal Britain that Johnson speaks about and is supposed to be a champion of. I don’t think Johnson speaks to the liberal ideals - or even tries to - he copies Trump style rhetoric where you don’t need to lead by capability, competence or political aspiration. He speaks about Brexit and ‘getting the job done’ - simple phrases as PR - there isn’t political substance behind it. He doesn’t care - just wants to look after his inner circle, not be criticised, promote his and his friends financial interests and stay in power - and doesn’t even understand about problems and issues in Manchester, the North or anywhere else for that matter!

Even people who are vaguely interested tend to follow stories that are relevant / of interest to them rather than challenging their own view points. The arrival of the echo chamber is bad because people dont look at the structure of institutions and their importance, they only look at 'sides'. Completely agree. Ironically I think that in March we as a nation did more or less unit around mainstream news, to listen to similar messages and see reasonable argued debate about Covid.

As time goes on however, as seen in the more divided reactions to lockdowns or COVID itself, and rise of conspiracy theories - people are going back to echo chamber social media for their ‘news’.

Unit... = unite!!!

Jeremy Farrar from the Wellcome Trust was on Sky news earlier

Interview here for anyone who missed it:

Good point already.

I didn't manage to listen to much if it; I'm not sure it's slant was on if Churchill was responsible, more that it's an event that's not included in a lot of the narratives around ww2 that school children hear about.

It's very relevant as often there are famines at the same time as wars. So why isn't it included?

Explained pretty well in that video thanks @CoffeeandCroissant

The man needs a new bookcase though!

The centre for cities high street data is a bit dubious for London - London "high street" is heavily visited by tourists and visitors, it's not heavily used by locals, the suburban "towns" that are the equivalent to Exeter etc. the ones where locals shop.

In general I'm quite dubious on the Google Mobility data - it's based on Android phone users who change the default to turn on Location History - but 95% of users don't change defaults - archive.uie.com/brainsparks/2011/09/14/do-users-change-their-settings/ maybe it's different now, but there's very little evidence that I've seen. So how is it possibly a representative sample, something is odd about these users already - they're the sort of people who change the settings on their phone!

Jeremy Farrar from the Wellcome Trust was on Sky news earlier

He made a good point about economics and health going hand in hand.

RE: The North.

There's also a culture issue here. I suspect it's far more common for people in the North to be caring for elderly/infirm family members because, well, frankly that's a really big reason you stay somewhere where there are relatively few job opportunities. Relatively few people migrate North as opposed to South so most of us left tend to be living near family. Nearly everyone I know between 30 and their late sixties living locally has an elderly family member in a different house they look in on regularly (in some cases more than one). By contrast the people I know who have gone South are now several hundred miles from their elderly family so no longer have this as a duty.

If you're the carer for an elderly/infirm family member who is not in your home then you're not trained in the same covid compliant procedures a professional carer is but your services are still very much needed (and if all these family members quit then there isn't the support in place to pick the caring work up). But chances are you're still at work and your kids are still at school. You're probably worried as hell and doing the best you can, but still.

@MRex

Certain areas in the north of England have never voted for a conservative government, but clearly their local leaders have also mostly been urging caution over covid. Types of job, isolation payments etc are clearly relevant, as would be any research about general authority mistrust leading to failure to follow guidance, but isn't the miner's strike discussion far off topic? Or has it actually been cited by any research as a reason why there are higher covid cases right now in some parts of the country?

What really pisses me off is that when some of the North went into lockdown the local Tories were out blaming it on the fact that those areas had Labour councils. It was completely played as those areas being "punished" for "not being as good" as the areas out of lockdown. Then, shockingly, compliance dropped...

I'd agree with swgb1.

data related question.
I wanted to take a quick look at +rates in the Pillar2 (community) testing part.
On average in october that's a daily 176k test (up from 146k in Sept). But the cases are reported across all pillars. Is there a way to see only per pillar?

@TheSunIsStillShining

data related question. I wanted to take a quick look at +rates in the Pillar2 (community) testing part. On average in october that's a daily 176k test (up from 146k in Sept). But the cases are reported across all pillars. Is there a way to see only per pillar?

.... I don't know if this is what you want, but ..

on the dashboard, if you go to tests,
then scroll down to "tests processed by pillar"
you can click on "daily data" to get the table with columns for the different pillars