Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@RedToothBrush

The smearing is also about trying to make it look like local leaders are guilty of financial mismanagement. There has been a sustained real terms defunding of councils over a number of years whilst councils are expected to provide more services (especially in terms of social care) for less. Its a perfect storm of circumstances and there is a very real tension between Westminster and local councils across the country (again noting the cross party nature of this and how the first councils going bust have been Tory).

All these things dont come out of nowhere, they are the eventual conclusion of a sustained pattern.

The problem is none of this stuff about liberal democracy and its institutions (everything from local government, to the justice and policing systems, to localised media etc etc) is properly understood and appreciated. I am pretty damn sure the concept of Peelian Principles is not taught in schools (i know about it from doing family history and finding someone who was one of the first police officers in the country and reading into the establishment of the Leicester Police force).

I am very very concerned about all this and how we seem to be sleep walking into a very different country which is far from the Liberal Britain that Johnson speaks about and is supposed to be a champion of. Tbh i dont think he even realises himself and is something of a useful idiot.

... Superb set of posts, red 👏🏽

I learned about Robert Peel and policing by consent at school in both late primary and early secondary,
i.e. long before we split up for O level subjects etc
This was ~ the mid & late1960s

I'm shocked if this is no longer the case in schools

Policing and the whole rule of law is by consent in the UK
Even in democracies where there wasn't the history of Peel, the principle of consent has now been baked in

The issue of consent is why I so strongly support the right to demonstrate by those who follow the SD & mask rules; fine organisers - who apply for permission to march - the max if this is broken

If we ban the fuckwit causes from demonstrating, the rest of us will be next:
no protests allowed against central takeover by local govt,
against removal of financial support for those deprived of their income by govt closing down their place of work,
or sacrificing care homes again, if that happens,
or against consequences of No Deal Brexit

The danger is this nihilistic govt in particular imposing effective martial law, after all its spinning plates have crashed to the ground and the economy with it

"Manchester was promised more money in April for covid related expenses only for the government to u-turn on this after money had been spent."

Shameful
This govt breaks international treaties, but now it also breaks agreements with elected representatives of the British people, i.e. with the people

Asked my son (15): never heard of Peel :(
What I don't understand is why aren't other council leaders/mayors not lining up behind AB? They will be in his situation in a few weeks mostly, so it would be in their best interest...

Throughout history, there are often only a few prominant people who stand up against a powerful authoritarian government

it takes courage, but also a more longterm view than getting through to next Monday

Looking at mobility (link also in OP under Miscell)

Greater Manchester has much less of a drop in "retail & recreation" than e.g. Nottingham or London

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

Hear hear! With time, this pandemic will pass, but will we fully regain the democracy and liberties we have relinquished?

I accept some measures are necessary- and March/April was a time of national emergency. But now I would like our elected representatives to debate them, for regional representatives to be involved and supported and protest must be allowed no matter how fringe.

@MarshaBradyo

I don't know Cornwall at all, so I can't really compare. (sorry this is a post of guess rather than data)

I suspect at least part of it is luck. Cornwall, I think always stayed low, so less likely to have cases "rattling around" and able to spring up.

Perhaps weather too. Blackpool can be windy and wet. No snow though, if you're interested. A great frustration as a child.
There's a certain number of indoor attractions, and people don't tend to go down to the beach in the way they do in Cornwall.
Cornwall I'd think of sitting on the beach/surfing/water activities. That's my impression rather than knowledge though.
Blackpool tourists are more doing things, taking a tram trip, visiting tourist attractions etc.

Blackpool, in nice weather people do do outside things. But a lot of the tourist things are like the Sandcastle (indoor swimming centre), Sealife etc.
Even things like the Pleasure Beach which is outside, I remember the cleanliness and safety when I went there. I'll put money on them not wiping down, queues being not socially distanced, possibility of sitting next to a stranger. I'd like to think I'd be wrong there, but I've heard a few stories from friends that went.

I'd guess the difference between Blackpool and Cornwall is luck. But there may be more to it than that.
People in Blackpool are often self employed. They can't afford to think "I coughed a couple of times, as I do every year, I need to isolate for 14 days" because that is 14 days of no money. When the season's as short and unpredictable as it is, a fortnight is a long out time. So there may be an aspect of less likely to isolate. I don't think that would be significant though, and it would be more given to tourists who would take it back.

One other thing, and this is observation. I saw a certain amount on the news about Cornwall being unwelcoming to tourists. Now I don't know how true this was, but it may have put people off even if it wasn't true.
Blackpool I think was actively advertising people to come.

I'd wonder perhaps whether it was more the people who come in bringing it.
Blackpool tends to have a lot of visitors from Manchester for example. So when Manchester was coming up in numbers, that probably would bring it in.
The visitors are also often in the 20s and 30s age bracket. So more likely to be asymptomatic and also the age bracket that came up over August.

I don't know how that compares to Cornwall though.

Also, Nottingham has a very large jump in "Parks" whereas the other 2 areas have a fall

Bcf i note that times when we've had most problems with policing and forces from other areas have been brought in, we have historically had more unrest and violence rather than resolving the issue. This has always been to the detriment of the local population.

See Miners Strikes for an example.

I heard on Andrew Marr (but could have been Sophy Ridge) this morning that the south west has had lowest numbers but biggest damage to the economy. It wasn't challenged so not sure how true it is but it is pretty obvious that areas like Devon and Cornwall with alot of reliance on hospitality will suffer.

Churchill sent troops against striking S Wales miners a few years before WW1

They - and others in mining areas and other trade unions - remembered this in the 1945 election
Churchill's actions in WW2 were not enough to compensate from his brutal actions against working people during his earlier years in power

A change I have really noticed the last few years:
There seems far less general knowledge about recent history (last century or so) even of the UK, let alone the wider world
Even among well educated people

I wonder if social media bubbles have reduced people talking together and sharing folk memories, even comparatively recent,
e.g. apparently lost recollections of how the 1980s deindustrialisation, mass unemployment etc came about,
false memories of how the 3-day week happened and who was in power

Partly too because with constant tests & homework, teachers have less freedom to discuss general topics not in the syllabus

• although I think Peel used to be core syllabus before the exam years split anyway

@ancientgran

I heard on Andrew Marr (but could have been Sophy Ridge) this morning that the south west has had lowest numbers but biggest damage to the economy. It wasn't challenged so not sure how true it is but it is pretty obvious that areas like Devon and Cornwall with alot of reliance on hospitality will suffer.

Mobility graphs for Devon & Cornwall

massive increase in "parks", much more than Nottingham

but not much drop in "recreation & retail"
In fact Cornwall shows a rise

Charts can only show a gross overview, but if those 2 counties are experiencing more problems, we need to be able to dig down further

I think the issue with the mobility charts is that they don't / can't specifically show hospitality

The huge increase in "parks" is suggestive, but I suppose they could all be locals

Bcf i note that times when we've had most problems with policing and forces from other areas have been brought in, we have historically had more unrest and violence rather than resolving the issue. This has always been to the detriment of the local population.

See Miners Strikes for an example.

It was very apparent with the miners strike, there are probably several reasons, importing back up isn't popular but you also have officers who don't understand the local area and in the miners strike you also had officers far from home who maybe had problems at home (I remember one of our officers having to go for a week when his child was going into hospital for quite a serious operation and another fighting going when his wife went into labour at 6 months leaving his two preschoolers with no family to care for them) so they probably weren't feeling like making friends. Obviously that shouldn't affect their attitude but they are only human at the end of the day. I think the accommodation some of them had was also very substandard which again probably wasn't making them happy. One described to me sleeping on camp beds in a disused holiday camp that was cold and damp, that was without putting up with another officer who was able to sleep snoring loudly all night. I bet he was a ray of sunshine when on the front line the following day.

On the other hand some were just seeing pound signs and loving it. It was a strange time.

At more positive events "foreign" forces can be welcomed. I remember being at a Mass when the Pope visited in 1982. Before he arrived the visiting forces paraded down the middle of the field we were in and were cheered and clapped. I was attending Mass and my husband was on duty, I have the mass book and the police orders book my husband had, maybe collectors items one day.

I wouldn't excuse poor conditions and problems for domestic DV, so I certainly won't excuse police for being very violent in their public duties

Many took great delight in being paid huge amounts for overtime to hit people with impunity

Example of just one force:
There were ties & scarves produced with "ASPOM"

Chanting "Arthur Scargill Pays Our Mortgages"
which some later claimed were "Avon & Somerset Police Operation Miner"

The version you believe depends on the jeering and violence from the police that you observed

Churchill sent troops against striking S Wales miners a few years before WW1

That isn't quite a fair assessment of the reality that happened in Tonypandy.

Churchill, who was home secretary at the time was asked by the local Chief Constable to authorise the use of troops against rioters.

Churchill refused to do this as he was horrified at the thought of sending armed troops against civilians, so he sent some metropolitan police to assist local police. He said. "We are holding back the soldiers for the present and sending only police."

The police arrived in the evening and the rioters dispersed of their own accord without any intervention from the police.

However local authorities persisted in asking the Home Office for troops and eventually they were deployed.
There is no record of them having fired any shots at all or doing more than simply patrolling the town and protecting businesses and residential properties from further vandalism and looting. I believe I was told only 3 businesses were left untouched in the riots.

The story of the troops comes from a fictional account several years later from a trade unionist who wrote a novel including an account of how troops had opened fire on striking miners killing several. For some reason this was then taken to be the reality of the above situation.

My grandparents had friends who lived locally enough to be eyewitnesses as children. There was generally great relief when the troops arrived as the rioters were indiscriminate and causing widespread fear.

The only person to have died in the riots died from being hit on the head by a blunt instrument-which could have been a policeman's baton, but equally well could have been from the miner's weapons that they were known to be carrying.

It wasn't challenged so not sure how true it is but it is pretty obvious that areas like Devon and Cornwall with a lot of reliance on hospitality will suffer.

Well - anecdata alert but sounds like anecdata/ unfounded opinion with Radio 4 too - I was in Devon and it was rammed over the summer - busier than last year for sure (we go every year).

I tried to book a holiday cottage / camper and they were all booked up. I hadn't wanted to stay with family we have there because they've got vulnerable people living there but in the end (with everyone's consent) we isolated for a few weeks very strictly then went and were super careful to avoid crowds when there (quite difficult - it was packed).

I also tried to book for October half term in a very remote place in Devon and completely booked again then too. So we're staying home.

I can see that restaurants / cinemas etc may have suffered and I know Torbay council didn't have the fair on the sea front like they normally do (so they'll have suffered) but in terms of hotels and accommodation I'd be surprised if they didn't make up for lockdown over the summer and then some. I know a lot of people who normally holiday abroad who did a UK break this year. I'd be really interested to see some actual data on this.

The issue isn't about "foreign" or outsider police or troops, but whether they are their with the consent of the people,
e.g. to help in floods, or just as entertainment

or to impose the will of the state on an unwilling people,
e.g. classic example is British troops in NI after internment and Bloody Sunday
but also miners' strikes through the 20th century

Conflict was more often with miners, because until the industry was basically closed down (mostly by the Tories, in advance of when it became economically necessary)
they were the workers with the most power to affect the state

Demonstrations are even more important in modern times, because the trade unions, which were for decades the most powerful weapon of working people against the state,
now have far fewer numbers and far less power, even to protect working conditions

The difference to German unions - and consequently to workers' rights e.g. safety for teachers atm - is very noticeable

Witchend That is a very sanitised Tory version of what Churchill did
History written later, especially by Randolph Churchill to whitewash his father

The memory of what he and others did then, also in the 1920s-1930s Depression was a major reason for Labour's 1945 victory
and Nye Bevan's famous statement expressed the bitterness of many who lived through that period:

""So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.They condemned millions of people to semi-starvation."

The main economic issue for Devon and Cornwall was the season being so short. There were lots of bookings for school holidays from 5th July through August, but usually they start getting bookings from spring onwards for the child-free crowd including long weekend breaks.

Unfortunately, as folk memories are not pased on, those in power can rewrite history to say what they want

"History is written by the victors"

My late father was born at the end of WW1 and was one of 14 siblings, so I had many first-hand accounts of what working class people then suffered

@MRex

The main economic issue for Devon and Cornwall was the season being so short. There were lots of bookings for school holidays from 5th July through August, but usually they start getting bookings from spring onwards for the child-free crowd including long weekend breaks.

... Do you - or anyone - have a link where we can get decent current data about hospitality for the regions ?

I'll look again at ONS economic reports, but they are not up to date

Certain areas in the north of England have never voted for a conservative government, but clearly their local leaders have also mostly been urging caution over covid. Types of job, isolation payments etc are clearly relevant, as would be any research about general authority mistrust leading to failure to follow guidance, but isn't the miner's strike discussion far off topic? Or has it actually been cited by any research as a reason why there are higher covid cases right now in some parts of the country?

ONS sector-led figures: www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/july2020#:~:text=Monthly%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,than%20its%20April%202020%20low.
GVA to August: www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/monthlygrossdomesticproductbygrossvalueadded.

It would be possible to compare previous regional breakdowns to get an idea. Perhaps of more immediate utility are the employment and labour market figures: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/august2020.

I think it came out of the discussion on how moving GM to tier 3 could / would be policed. Examples of different practices and what they led to are relevant as examples even if not strictly data, I think

Local Authority-level: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/locallabourmarketindicatorsforcountieslocalandunitaryauthoritiesli01