Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

But the science is saying a tier 3 lockdown won't work so we are going through all that economic damage for no real gain!
Sheep and Cow. I also support a universal basic income but that doesn't mean businesses still won't need extra support.

I'm sorry, but you REALLY don't have a FUCKING CLUE sheepandcow.

Seriously, its horrendous whats happening and how many people are going to lose absolutely everything because of prolonged restrictions.

Even ones which aren't as harsh as lockdown have had a MASSIVE effect.

Plus the city gets a huge amount of income from the airport which it part owns and has hardly any flights. They've closed a terminal and make hundreds redundant.

You comments are actually offensive tbh.

Agree with @EducatingArti but also for me one of the hardest parts was the ban on informal / family childcare (unless it was in a park?) combined with a lack of availability of childcare (summer clubs either not running or massive price hikes), just at the same time that Boris was trying to encourage everyone back to the office. This affected a lot of working parents, particularly women. Thankfully informal childcare bubbles were allowed a few weeks ago and still allowed in tier 3

Ok I'm off for a bit before this stresses me too much. Covid is bad enough in itself.

@Redtoothbrush
Just on case there's any misunderstanding (because I accept people may not agree about supporting everyone equally with UBI but can't see how that's a Wow just wow belief).

Did you think I was referring to Manchester when I mentioned being in a cabinet minister's constituency? Because I wasn't.
I saw people posting that Robert Jenrick's constituency (which isn't GM) has had more money than other areas. Perhaps I'm wrong?

@MRex

I posted the deprivation tables a few threads ago, did they not make it to OP? I'll look them out tomorrow again for you if not.

... Oops, did I miss something you wanted in the next OP ?

Please post the link again if so

@SheepandCow

Ok I'm off for a bit before this stresses me too much. Covid is bad enough in itself.

@Redtoothbrush
Just on case there's any misunderstanding (because I accept people may not agree about supporting everyone equally with UBI but can't see how that's a Wow just wow belief).

Did you think I was referring to Manchester when I mentioned being in a cabinet minister's constituency? Because I wasn't.
I saw people posting that Robert Jenrick's constituency (which isn't GM) has had more money than other areas. Perhaps I'm wrong?

Goodbye

FFS. It's the lack of restrictions that are the CAUSE of prolonged restrictions.

As Prof Sridhar (and many other experts) have pointed out.

That's what's putting people's livelihoods at risk. The failure to contain.

It's incredibly offensive. Extremely offensive to accuse me of wanting something I've been arguing against.

Refuse to accept how we save more jobs, refuse to listen to the economic and medical experts, but don't accuse me of something when I'm calling for the opposite.

Let's see how dragging it out does for livelihoods? Actually we can. Because we've done 8-9 months of it.

A universal basic income is not affordable at the best of times (certainly not at a level which would make any real difference).

It is certainly not affordable at a time when millions more people are unemployed not paying taxes and millions more soon will be of the lockdown fanatics get their way.

[quote OhTheRoses]@PatriciaHolm - that's an incredibly late start - later even than Oxbridge. Let's hope they don't escalate the figures too much. Hopefully not an MMU or Northumbria as they are so small comparatively.[/quote]
Yes -they pushed it back, as they were trying to sort it so as many students could come in person as possible - textiles/creative arts hard to study on your own at home of course. So it's artificially late this year.

And yes, far far smaller!

Job losses pre-Covid were just the normal economic shit that has always happened
Asking the govt to pay 80% of previous wages to those workers is asking them to stop being Tory, which is unreasonable as they were elected as Tories
If the public wanted socialism and UBI, then they would have voted for it last GE

Always comes back to the principle that, when for public health, some people are stopped from earning,
then public taxes should compensate them
If public health measures are not worth at least 80%, then don't do them

@SheepandCow I’m with you re lack of restrictions or at least going in early. So many here say why restrict Cornwall. The whole point is you go in early but for a short time to prevent protracted restrictions. Government hasn’t got the balls for it though and now it’s too late. 2weeks in September with even min support for business would have been preferable to all this protracted uncertainty over winter. It’s not really hospitality causing this anyway. The effect of closing it will be minimal and destroy lives. Utter mess.

People in Manchester and other areas in the NW have been under oppressive restrictions for months
and these fucking restrictions have caused massive economic damage

We should at least acknowledge the consequences, the destroyed businesses, the mass of lost jobs / lost wages, the disadvantages, the deep poverty that will last for many years,
that will blight the lives of many of the young and working people

The govt just keep grinding them under, breaking promises and now bullying,
instead of giving substantial help or hope as a national govt should be doing in a pandemic

and after all the misery, these measures probably won't work either
The experts incl in SAGE don't seem confident at all that they'll work now

@SheepandCow

FFS. It's the lack of restrictions that are the CAUSE of prolonged restrictions.

As Prof Sridhar (and many other experts) have pointed out.

That's what's putting people's livelihoods at risk. The failure to contain.

It's incredibly offensive. Extremely offensive to accuse me of wanting something I've been arguing against.

Refuse to accept how we save more jobs, refuse to listen to the economic and medical experts, but don't accuse me of something when I'm calling for the opposite.

Let's see how dragging it out does for livelihoods? Actually we can. Because we've done 8-9 months of it.

nonsense - it's the restrictions that are causing the economic hardship

restrictions bring, at best, short term relief and at worst economic ruin for millions with all the poverty and social breakdown that will follow

The problem is (across the country) 66million people are just bending the rules slightly. It’s completely understandable. As it gets colder the best of intentions to meet outside get broken, just for 30 mins etc. That’s how it’s spreading in homes. I think it will be proven school kids are bringing it home a symptomatically too.

I don’t think shutting businesses does very much except when it’s part of a stricter lockdown when people then tend to stay home more because they’re in that mindset.

As I’ve said on here for months it’s a bit rich to harp on about education and destroy the economy for 5+ years and push a significant proportion of kids into poverty.

It’s spreading in homes.

@BigChocFrenzy - this one... fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/q8HYm8U6FU#page/0/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000002/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-0

[quote MRex]@BigChocFrenzy - this one... fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/q8HYm8U6FU#page/0/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000007/ati/102/are/E09000002/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-0[/quote]
....
OK, I can put that in the next OP under Miscell if you want ?

Sorry. Posted random link instead of the list. There's a lot of other data that can be accessed there. Full list:

1. Summary Profile - COVID-19Clinical risk factor and social vulnerability indicators fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/hThVtOH4CU A subset of key indicators from all the profiles
2. COVID-19 Clinical Risk Factors - Respiratory fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/7DVXEB34E2 e.g. estimated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence, under 75 mortality for respiratory disease
3. COVID-19 Clinical Risk Factors - Non-Respiratory fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/V8BMkJikgU e.g. Chronic heart disease and diabetes prevalence, obesity, flu vaccination coverage
4. COVID-19 Deprivation, demography & context fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/G8UcFiedVE e.g. deprivation, economic inactivity, ethnicity
5. COVID-19 Vulnerable Groups (1) fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/ilrNXIeQF0 e.g. care / nursing home beds, mental health prevalence, people reported blind or partially sighted
6. COVID-19 Vulnerable Groups (2) fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/q8HYm8U6FU e.g. homelessness, children in care, proficiency in English

Choose the best one of those, pls, not all of them !

SAGE don't think these restrictions will fix the problem. Thats the scientists take so arguing it will solve the issue is frustrating.

After this long under restrictions the problem has become the breakdown in trust and fatigue in the restrictions. Thats what makes them ineffective. And they get increasing ineffective over time.

Putting in even more restrictive ones, won't necessarily fix the issue either. Precisely because of the increasingly ineffective stuff.

From the word go it was said that we had 'one shot' with a lockdown.

And a lot of this was to do with behavioural science. This isn't just about people 'being selfish'. Its about the fact they NEED other humans and they NEED to go to work. And a lack of trust and resentment has built up.

This isn't reversable and ever tighter restrictions don't break the circle of economic hardship / resentment / increasing lack of trust.

If you've done nothing but work and not 'lived' for months - especially if you have a pretty crappy job you dislike and then you go home to a family situation which is stressful and you can't escape that, it will take a toll.

Psychologically knowing that you can't just see your friends and you have no idea when it will end is hard. I know plenty of people who its breaking.

And then you come on here and see people complaining about being in Tier 1 and rule of 6 for christmas and you think 'wow they are on another planet to half the country'.

If you are a business you may have invested money to be covid safe only for restrictions to hit what little business you might have had left. And you can't plan for the future. You've just got to work out how to pay the bills.

Honestly, its awful.

And fascinating to see the opinions of people who have no clue whatsoever what its like in Manchester and how its affecting people on the ground, and have the nerve to just shout 'just follow the rules' rather arrogantly and ignorantly.

As I say. Its outright offensive tbh.

Oh, I see I have one of those links:
as the 3rd link under England in the OP

https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/V8BMkJikgU#page/0/gid/1/pat/6/par/E12000004/ati/102/are/E06000015/cid/4/tbm/1/page-options/ovw-do-0

PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc

Check if that's the one you want, pls

The lockdown in March was necessary for a "novel" coronavirus not just to "flatten the curve"

but to give time for the government to build up mass testing, track & trace, so that life could return to as much normality as possible
with maybe 2-3 week local lockdowns over Autumn & winter

However, the govt wasted that time, gave jobs & contracts to cronies and never developed a proper strategy

So many people are pissed off, poorer, exhausted mentally and have mostly very little trust in this governent's abilities or morals
That goes especially for areas like GM that have been under restrictions for months

People aren't stupid; they know it's all a massive cockup and that they are suffering for little purpose

Here in Manchester we had strict conditions put on us on July 30 - right at the start of the Summer holidays. Since that date we could not meet any other household in a house or garden, or visit any other household, or stay overnight. You can only be in two households outside at any venue and only a single household inside any pub etc. This frankly fucking screwed the chance of family get togethers in the Summer unless you are fortunate enough to live sufficiently close to family that you can go and walk in a park with them. We didn't get to go and sit with granny in the garden in the long Summer days. We didn't get to do birthday parties in the garden. We didn't get to meet Mum for a coffee at Starbucks. We haven't been able to see pals at the pub in a group of 3 unless we are living together or it's warm enough to sit outside. And yet still our numbers surge. And now we get financially screwed into the ground to boot.

You living elsewhere in the country, unless you live in Leicester, have No Fucking Clue.

Honestly. Having looked through the data on hospital beds and what might happen if we stop restrictions and then considering the economics and the long term impact on other health conditions and waiting lists, i dont know what the best way forward from the mess we are in now. Its no longer clear cut.

Its not about saving granny anymore. Not if granny is going to end up with no care and is on a waiting list for her hip and that then falls to adult children with kids who can't afford to give up work but have to anyway. But they then havent enough for food and rent and end up homeless and theres no money for emergency accommodation.

Cos we are starting to get to a point where thats not unrealistic. At which point you think this is so fucked up and for what.

Following the science becomes meaningless in some contexts. Quality of life for example. And if we aren't measuring things like waiting lists or even waiting lists for waiting lists then how can we really be making informed decisions?

I don't know what the solution is. I do know that how the government have approached this and their messaging is off the scale bad and counter productive in covid management goals. They could not have handled this worse if they tried.

It never was about saving granny.