Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

*that

Sheepandcow it would appear everyone has forgotten that G Manchester has been in restrictions since July.

Why do you think so many in Manchester are raging to the degree they are?

Everyone forgot.

[quote OhTheRoses]@PatriciaHolm the Zoe App estimated Epsom shot from 77 to 225 yesterday.[/quote]
Ah - well, we'll have to see whether that feeds into the case numbers.

Most UCA students started back yesterday......

@RedToothBrush
I meant the people in Manchester (and everywhere else in the country) who were made redundant or got too ill to work before Covid ever reared it's unwelcome head.

These people aren't anywhere close to dreaming about getting 80% of their previous income - yet still have the same outgoings, i.e. rent, food, bills, as anyone newly financially affected by the pandemic. Nobody seems to care about their struggles. Burnham and co. say they're fighting for people who may lose their livelihood. These pre-Covid people matter too.

UBI would've been the best and fairest approach.

I can't see why per head of population GM should get more than Liverpool (both higher deprivation and lower work from home capability).

Liverpool got £44m for a population of 1.5m. Greater Manchester was refused £65m for a population of 2.8m. The government never offered parity in terms of “per head” funding. Some areas of Liverpool are very deprived as are some areas of Manchester. But both have affluent areas too.

To be fair, £75 million for GM would be equivalent per head to what Lancashire and Liverpool region have been given and that is what Andy Burnham has been trying to negotiate for.
The other oint is that tier 3 isn't probably going to make that much difference as GM has been in measures that in some areas are stricter than tier 2 since 31st July. I think this is also what the likes of Whitty and other scientists have been saying- tier 3 restrictions aren't going to work. The argument then is why cause more business es to collapse/have difficulty if it isn't going to give us good results in sorting Covid rates.

Liverpool has a lot more deprivation than Greater Manchester. I can't comprehend the debate though. It's all fuck all money really given what's being spent generally with covid, just pay out because it isn't worth the row.

Is that really true? There's a fair amount in GM.

Is that really true?

@RedToothBrush

Sheepandcow it would appear everyone has forgotten that G Manchester has been in restrictions since July.

Why do you think so many in Manchester are raging to the degree they are?

Everyone forgot.

Not proper ones. For a start, Manchester airport had a fair few holidaymakers pass through. Hardly restricted.

Nobody even thought or cared about the people in Manchester (or anywhere else across the UK) who got made redundant or became too ill to work pre-Covid. They too need to pay rent, bills, etc. On way way less than 80% of income. More like 20%.

Also, areas not under restrictions have their own economic troubles. The pandemic has hit many places hard. London's economy has been hugely impacted. The biggest drop in footfall in the country, I believe. Hundreds of thousands of Londoners living on the breadline minimum wage rely on the bar, pub, and entertainment industry. As the ONS reports showed during the first wave, London has some of the most deprived communities in the whole UK.

Then there's parts of the south west like Cornwall. No restrictions but already, pre pandemic, the most deprived region in the UK.

The financial support provided should be equal and not dependent on who's best at political bartering or who is in a cabinet member or influencial backbencher's constituency.

More questions than answers but worth a read. Pre-existing immunity? www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

I posted the deprivation tables a few threads ago, did they not make it to OP? I'll look them out tomorrow again for you if not.

Regarding Government help.
Scottish Government are now administering grants (Business Closure Fund ) & (Business Hardship Fund) for business’s who are affected by the temporary Brake Restrictions FM put in place 9/10.

You can hardly say the measures were strict when people were free to jet off on holidays abroad. And then made their own way home, some on public transport including cabs, to 'quarantine' (if they decided to adhere to it, and there were no checks to ensure this was done).

Non essential shops and pubs were not closed in Manchester in July.
Whether you agree with that or not, it can hardly be described as strict restrictions.

Fucking wow. Sheepandcow.

Just wow.

I'm not even going to go there, I'm so pissed at that last comment.

Just WOW.

@SheepandCow Manchester airport is well outside the city though. People are as likely to disperse to cheshire, Wirral or Liverpool as Manchester.

@PatriciaHolm - that's an incredibly late start - later even than Oxbridge. Let's hope they don't escalate the figures too much. Hopefully not an MMU or Northumbria as they are so small comparatively.

Liverpool and Lancashire are getting about £28-£29 per head compared with GM's £9.

Sheep and Cow - you really don't have any idea what it has been like here!

[quote ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough]@SheepandCow Manchester airport is well outside the city though. People are as likely to disperse to cheshire, Wirral or Liverpool as Manchester.[/quote]
All the more mingling!

People were travelling all over the place. Mass gathering indoors (airport), public transport to and from (cabs, etc). And of course holidays within the UK.

Whether you want that or not during a pandemic is another matter, but strict restrictions that is not.

@Ecosse

Deaths were well below average yesterday so I suspect today’s figure is a reflection of that.

No, they weren't below average for a Monday. Monday was 80, compared to 50 last week and 19 the week before.

Tuesdays tend to be higher to reflect that but still 241 today as oppose to 143 last week and 76 the week before.

And the average over the last 7 days to Monday was approximately 117, the average over this weeks Monday and Tuesday is 160, which is a significant rise.

@EducatingArti

Liverpool and Lancashire are getting about £28-£29 per head compared with GM's £9.

Sheep and Cow - you really don't have any idea what it has been like here!

I don't understand what you're implying? I don't have an idea what it's like where? For who? The people made redundant or who got too ill to work before Covid? They're struggling on closer to 20% than 80%.

Nobody even thought or cared about the people in Manchester (or anywhere else across the UK) who got made redundant or became too ill to work pre-Covid. They too need to pay rent, bills, etc. On way way less than 80% of income. More like 20%.

Isn't this just the economic version of what's happening with the illness? Despite what some people seem to believe, the government isn't more sympathetic towards people who are ill with covid than people who are ill with severe flu - it's just that the sheer numbers who could be ill all at once require extra measures to stop covid transmission that we can get away without having for flu. Now governments and local authorities are having to do something similarly special for covid-caused business closures, just because of the sheer number of people involved. You're right that it's inconsistent and unfair if you look only at how deserving individuals are of care and support. So much of what's we're having to deal with is, because so many measures are in place to protect the functioning of society, not people directly.

I assume I'm in the minority for wanting to see everyone who is struggling receive the same individual amount of support. Universal Basic Income means nobody falls through the gaps.

Why resent that?

Manchester needs support. Yes give them it. But so does Leicester, Liverpool, Birmingham, Lancashire, Cornwall, London, and anywhere else struggling. How about the NE. Teeside, for example. Hugely deprived already.

Nowhere should be playing off against anywhere else.

Excellent distraction tactic however. Everyone turning on everyone instead of looking where the real blame lies - the government with their world-beating incompetent handling. The need to (finally) sort out test, track, and trace, follow WHO guidance on making schools Covid safer, and border checks/proper quarantines/tests.

With GM and other places like Liverpool, I think that good evidence and data, combined with Public Health experience and leadership should really inform the decision making about when to lockdown though still surely?

As the evidence points to better management of covid= better economics.

In a sense it shouldn’t be about the mayor or BJ at all to decide the timing and nature of it. They are locked in a battle - which is fair enough the mayor is fighting for the economics of his city. But it shouldn’t be either of them who make decision. Aren’t we led by science?

@SheepandCow

You can hardly say the measures were strict when people were free to jet off on holidays abroad. And then made their own way home, some on public transport including cabs, to 'quarantine' (if they decided to adhere to it, and there were no checks to ensure this was done).

Non essential shops and pubs were not closed in Manchester in July.
Whether you agree with that or not, it can hardly be described as strict restrictions.

I was referring to this. Because people were not able to meet up with other households indoors, even socially distanced this had a huge knock on effect for restaurants and other businesses.
People have been struggling with extreme isolation. I live alone. The only place I have been able to go is my support bubble family and without them I would be totally going up the walls. I miss my nephews and the best we have been able to do is a couple of socially distanced walks in the park. I haven't seen my 83 year old Mum since Christmas as I wouldn't be able to stay with her or see her indoors or in her garden and she lives over 140 miles away in a low Covid area.