Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Why using a mouthwash might be a good idea news.psu.edu/story/635101/2020/10/19/research/mouthwashes-oral-rinses-may-inactivate-human-coronaviruses

My thought too @Regulus. You'd really need to compare similar size towns and cities(? are there any) without universities to remove the urban bias here.

Doing it by "in the name" is strange... just trying to think of any large areas that don't have any unis named after the place. Would have happened pre 1990s (UEA etc) but not now. Oh actually there's no Norwich Uni is there? So maybe that's one.

There are loads of large urban areas that don’t have universities named after them. Guildford, Epsom, Preston, Truro, Blackpool, Burnley, Blackburn, Kettering, Rochdale, all just off the top of my head.

@RedToothBrush

Have they always referred to Van Tam as JVT?

Yes. Hancock has done it a lot previously.

Goes to show how much people are really paying attention that theres some kicking off on that on another thread....

Thanks, not seen that thread and the colloquial use of Van Tam name must have gone over my head (which is unusual when it involves language) but it did feel pronounced the use of 'the Prime Minster' by Van Tam and 'JVT' by The PM.

I do wonder if the term negotiation means something different in Whitehall, as it appeared that if Andy didn't do as he was told then there were no other options.

Kettering, Epsom are hardly large urban areas, just to name two that I know?

But agree re Blackpool, Blackburn etc.

Can't remember, is Guildford's Law School under Surrey University?

Good point, @regulus. I probably fell into a “confirmation bias” trap. I’m convinced so much recent spread is due to uni students, but accept I have no real data to back it up. Perhaps if I look at how uni return dates correlate to increased cases in cities.

I do wonder if the term negotiation means something different in Whitehall, as it appeared that if Andy didn't do as he was told then there were no other options.

There are no less than three separate stories running today on political engagement with Westminster and the subject of 'negotiations'. In all three cases it involves not listening, being aggressive and rude and being completely disresepectful to others.

File firmly under 'art of the deal' rather than negotiations.

@Augustbreeze The University of Surrey is in Guildford.

The University of the Arts has a tiny campus in Epsom. Epsom cases have doubled in the last few days.

[quote alreadytaken]Why using a mouthwash might be a good idea news.psu.edu/story/635101/2020/10/19/research/mouthwashes-oral-rinses-may-inactivate-human-coronaviruses[/quote]
Interesting!

That’s interesting.
I’ve been using a first defence type spray when I go on public transport and at the first sign of a scratchy throat. Haven’t had a cold for a year now. Heard an expert on the radio recommending it as preventative.

Might be a similar principle

@OhTheRoses

The University of the Arts has a tiny campus in Epsom. Epsom cases have doubled in the last few days.

Hang on - where are you getting that from?

In the 7 days Oct 10-16, Epsom & Ewell had 66 cases. (by specimen date).
In the 7 days from Oct 2-9, 69 cases.
7 day rolling average of cases has been steady in high 60s for about 2 weeks now.

Hancock has always called Jonathan Van Tam JVT and as health sec that felt ok - but Boris hasn’t before that I’ve seen, it just all felt very propaganda-like today what with the ‘the PM has asked me to focus on greater Manchester ‘...!

@Delatron

That’s interesting. I’ve been using a first defence type spray when I go on public transport and at the first sign of a scratchy throat. Haven’t had a cold for a year now. Heard an expert on the radio recommending it as preventative.

Might be a similar principle

Me too. I.also use this and as a result I barely have colds.

www.boots.com/coldzyme-mouth-spray-20ml-10183979

@Augustbreeze

The University of Law in Guildford is separate from the University of Surrey and has a different campus. Also U of L has no halls.

@PatriciaHolm the Zoe App estimated Epsom shot from 77 to 225 yesterday.

That explains why Dh made me buy loads of mouth wash and has been using nasal sprays!

Well all this continued (rather ineffective) regional division has done wonders for national cohesion...

The whole thing is an utter shambles. Appalling.

The financial support should be the same set amount wherever in the country.

I always find everything Prof Devi Sridhar, one of the scientists advising Sturgeon, says very sensible.

One of her recent tweets:
mobile.twitter.com/devisridhar

*Yes deaths & hospitalizations are lag indicators. They’re giving you insight into infection levels 3-5 weeks earlier. Relying on lead indicators (incl confirmed cases & positivity) more helpful for planning.
Quote Tweet

Fraser MacDonald
@fr4ser
· Oct 19
I am not a public health expert but I trust people like @devisridhar who is.

Seen some guff on social media this weekend about low/no deaths meaning we should open everything up again. Deaths are lag indicators - restrictions are based on lead indicators. Listen to experts. Down pointing backhand index twitter.com/Channel4/statu….*

@SheepandCow

Well all this continued (rather ineffective) regional division has done wonders for national cohesion...

The whole thing is an utter shambles. Appalling.

The financial support should be the same set amount wherever in the country.

Should it?

Dont you think places like leicester (never left restrictions)

And Greater Manchester and parts of West Yorkshire (been back in restrictions since july)

Actually have a good case for MORE financial support?

It's difficult because my LA has been fairly low throughout (well, since we began testing in earnest, I have my suspicions about the very early period) and although we crept up to about 65/100,000 cases now seem to be coming back down again and we're now back under 50/100,000 so I think it would be unnecessary to bring in additional restrictions here as things stand. I do understand that's cold comfort for those in areas with higher levels though.

On the financial side it seems fairly obvious they should have agreed a financial package on a per head of population basis with an additional fund that could applied to if areas had particular expenses or were unusually severely impacted BEFORE they announced the tier system. I just can't understand why they didn't!

She also says:

*Health services should not be the front-line. Should be border checks to prevent virus entering then guidance on avoiding super-spreading events, then test/trace/isolate & then hospitals. Health services are the goalie- don’t leave them alone on the pitch as that’s a losing game.

And (my bold)

Relying on just staying within hospital capacity will result in continuous cycle of lockdown/release as ICU beds fill up. Deal with the problem at source instead- keep numbers low & rest of society/economy/health services can run.

@RedToothBrush

Yes good point I hadn't thought of thar. Perhaps you're right wrt support for businesses.

However, when it comes to individuals everyone needs the same amount. That's why I prefer Universal Basic Income (UBI).

With all the focus on and bargaining by Burnham for 80% of income, pity the poor sods who were made redundant or got too ill to work before Covid. They too need to pay their rent and bills. Yet somehow it's apparently alright for them to struggle on what's for many a paltry £74 a week.

In any event. Some areas aren't currently under restrictions (Cornwall, for example) or under lower level restrictions (London) yet their economies and therefore support services for the vulnerable have suffered terribly.

The level of support should be equal nationally. Not reliant on who does best in a political barter or whether the area is a cabinet minister's constituency.

I don't think every area should get the same amount, and I can't see why per head of population GM should get more than Liverpool (both higher deprivation and lower work from home capability). The fact we all see it differently shows it is not easy to work out what fairness means at all.
I still don't understand why GM couldn't have gone into Tier 3 a week ago and had a loud public battle for an extra £5m where they could point directly at "look who we can't help" etc, but crucially wouldn't have delayed measures. There is a time in negotiations where brinkmanship is useful, and a time when it's not helpful. Neither side has done well by the people of GM.