Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Well, sun some governments on the continent have PR and hence often a majority govt
(with a wide range of parties, those who don't vote have to accept who gets in)

This majority helps during a crisis especially, to have a wider set of views and also a wider buy-in among the public, imo

I've said before that I wished BJ had offered a cross-party "working group / coalition" for Covid only, nothing else,
but that is apparently Not Done Here

I'm not entirely sure JVT's emphasis on "we are worried most about the over 60s" is entirely helpful. Given we are in a situation where the most non-compliant are the young (see link I put above), surely that just reinforces the idea that they are fine, they don't need to worry about it...

The UK maps he showed were interesting too - more areas actually falling in terms of rate change of cases/100,000 than growing between the weeks; showing fairly clearly how localised infections still are.

£22m at present isn’t it? Burnham played a game of brinkmanship and lost.

@Oaktree55

£22m at present isn’t it? Burnham played a game of brinkmanship and lost.

I have heard differing information on radio but £60m appears to be open still, or maybe not.

The trouble is if he can be overridden it’s not much if a negotiation. Rather take what you can get otherwise you’ll get a lot less and impact will be real and severe.

"I'm all for democracy, but if this means that a small group of idiots can wreck the country and it's population, than I am having second thoughts."

Liberal democracy is all about consensus building, working with all levels of elected representation and persuading people that an idea has enough merit to act.

'Illiberal democracy' is actually a form of authoritarianism and has the veneer of representatives of the people but in reality imposes its will against the views of others. Its not really democratic in practice. It often deliberately ignores interest groups if they are inconvenient to its objectives. It does not treat all citizens equally. And many in an illiberal democracy do not even have the right to vote.

@Reastie

I wondered the same and also to me it comes across as almost an oxymoron.
Cases numbers are low in cornwall so no need but also it works better when low.

It's obviously not that simple but he wasn't elaborating.

Has anyone seen today’s death figures, sorry if I’ve missed them this thread moves fast! I think the number was mentioned in a question at the press conference and I may have misheard but it sounded like 240 which seems extremely high.

poverty in childhood can also spur you on - give you more determination and focus.

This is our generation's war - and Churchill's story government was thrown out after the second world war. That also led to the creation of the NHS. The first world war lead to female emancipation. I'd like to think this will lead to greater value placed on key workers - but I wont hold my breath.

I find the early / late dilemma interesting too

It makes sense to interrupt earlier.

I have seen posts about U.K. too late and too long

However there have been comments about NW being too early and too short - so being early is not always well received

My main thoughts today

Piggy thanks will check it out after bed time madness

They seem to be saying 60 mill is still on the table. So it’s 22 million unless Burnham comes out and accepts the 60million?

Feels very like my divorce negotiations

Deaths are 241, very high (for whoever missed it)

@Augustbreeze

Deaths are 241, very high (for whoever missed it)

Thank you , yes very high, is there no logical reason like some data being included that should’ve been added earlier?

Boris wants me to look at Manchester wasnt the only coded message

Van Tam was being diplomatic. He cant say outright Boris should have done a circuit breaker in the north by now but to anyone used to diplomatic language that's what he meant. He was pointing out the lack of justification for closing the east and south west, by implication should have already done so elsewhere.

Deaths were well below average yesterday so I suspect today’s figure is a reflection of that.

@ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough BCT shared a chart that showed that 79 deaths were due to a data merge from PHE. Still high, but not as alarming,

US CDC report on excess deaths associated with Covid-19.

"As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported in the United States; however, this might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality."

"What is added by this report?"

"Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons."
www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?

@ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough

Has anyone seen today’s death figures, sorry if I’ve missed them this thread moves fast! I think the number was mentioned in a question at the press conference and I may have misheard but it sounded like 240 which seems extremely high.

....

UK today

(previous days in brackets)

Cases 21,331 .... (18,804 16,982 16,171 15,650 18,980 19,724 17,234 13,972, 12,872, 15,166, 13,864)
Deaths 241 ...... (80 67 150 136 138 137 143 50 65 81 87)

213 of those deaths were in England
79 came from PHE "consolidation"

@alreadytaken

poverty in childhood can also spur you on - give you more determination and focus.

This is our generation's war - and Churchill's story government was thrown out after the second world war. That also led to the creation of the NHS. The first world war lead to female emancipation. I'd like to think this will lead to greater value placed on key workers - but I wont hold my breath.

... I posted a series of study links upthread that recession sets back the 16-24 age group many years and some never recover lost ground

There are enough studies around showing the disadvantages to children of growing up in greater poverty,
their future job / earning prospects and even health & life expectancy

If it’s possible to leave it too late for a circuit breaker, is it inevitable things will get out of hand and we’ll end out with another prolonged lockdown getting the numbers down?

I also found this interesting.

Have they always referred to Van Tam as JVT?

Chart from Richard@RP131 UK showed where deaths came from

Tuesdays are usually high, with the weekend backlog, but this is definitely an overall increase from last week

Lockdowns elsewhere in Europe:

Ireland joining NI in a lockdown for 6 weeks from tomorrow midnight

They are keeping schools open
Non-esential retail closed
Exercise limited to within 5km radius

Germany has imposes a local lockdown in the hotspot Berchtesgaden district of Bavaria which has ~ 100,000 population,
after 7-day cases there exceeded 250 / 100,000

They are closing schools
No shopping except for groceries & meds
Work to continue
Exercise outdoors is not limited

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-ireland-goes-back-into-lockdown/a-55330236

Interesting graph from twitter (@ChrisGiles_)

Have they always referred to Van Tam as JVT?

Yes. Hancock has done it a lot previously.

Goes to show how much people are really paying attention that theres some kicking off on that on another thread....

@ChloeCrocodile

Interesting graph from twitter (*@ChrisGiles*_)

Are there any areas of dense population that don't have a university?

Interesting point noted by RP131 on today’s cases reported -
“Very unusually high day 1 figure today. That's over a thousand positives they managed to report within 24 hours of the specimen being taken. New reporting process / lab, or some kind of data anomaly?”
It’s a good thing if tests are being processed quicker but has presumably led to a slight increase in cases reported - again reiterates that looking at cases by date reported not useful vs date of specimen