Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

I thought this was interesting just now from Newcastle city council.

Separating student numbers who are registered with a different Gp address so effectively fresher students.

London charts also looked good thankfully

Was there a drop in teens (cant recall age band) or am I misremembering

Q: Is the argument for a circuit breaker lockdown stronger or weaker than when Sage argued for it in September?
Van-Tam says he has already explained why it would not be right for places like Cornwall or East Anglia.
And he says a lockdown like that works best when case numbers are low. They are higher now than they were.

Hmmm

So this chart hasn't been showing student data?

Sorry if I'm behind others in this.

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/oct/20/uk-coronavirus-live-greater-manchester-last-minute-plan-boris-johnson-tier-3-lockdown-deadline-covid?page=with:block-5f8f01c48f08925a5d5dd574#liveblog-navigation

Burnham says he has doubts about whether closing the places the government wants to close will bring the virus down.
"That is what we were facing - pain without the results.
I don’t think the government has yet brought forth a proposal to make its tier 3 proposal work."

(Manchester city council leader) Leese says government experts and Greater Manchester experts were united in thinking the government’s approach would not work.

Salford & Stockport mayors lining up behind Burnham

@NeurotrashWarrior

I thought this was interesting just now from Newcastle city council.

Separating student numbers who are registered with a different Gp address so effectively fresher students.

Not necessarily freshers. DD's (2nd year) chosen to stay with her home one for various reasons, and some freshers may have registered before they got locked down.

True and can now be seen virtually in most cases.

@cathyandclare

Did anyone work out how much money GM will get?

based on the shitshow that was the clown acting as if he knew what he was doing? Jack all.

Totally disgusted and angry at what this lot is doing to this country. divide and conquer. And ppl still haven't told them to fuck off.

I'm all for democracy, but if this means that a small group of idiots can wreck the country and it's population, than I am having second thoughts.

On the other hand sage says that genz will be scarred for life because not of covid, but the actions (or lack of them) by this gov.
-----
On a tangent: I do wonder why they are grouping together 20 year olds with 7 year olds. the latter group has years to actually catch up, but the first group needs work/money now. Or training.

Newcastle went into a strict no meeting or mixing with anyone outside your household anywhere on the 18th sept, before tiers were conceived.

You can see on the chart by looking at the non orange cases that the data starts to drop 2 weeks later.

Unfortunately looking at heat maps it's spread to the older generations during that time.

Not sure if this has been posted earlier in the day but some schools data on attendance:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54614111

Nick Gibb tries hard to minimise this but fails to understand (wilfully) how disruptive to learning this has become.

Delays to lung cancer diagnoses

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/19/lung-cancer-cases-could-be-mistaken-for-covid-charities-warn

referrals for suspected lung cancer plummeted during lockdown and were still only 60% of pre-Covid levels by the end of August.

“The number of early lung cancers has decreased – we are seeing quite a bit more late-stage cancer – so we have to assume that the delay in diagnosis due to Covid has played a part in that,” said Gilligan.

Early diagnosis is crucial.
According to CRUK, 88% of patients diagnosed at the earliest state of cancer survive for at least one year, compared with just 19% of patients diagnosed at the latest stage.

DH phoned surgery again today about his flu jab : no prospect of vulnerable under 65s getting vaccination until 'at least November'. No local pharmacies have supply either. Good -o.

"I'm all for democracy, but if this means that a small group of idiots can wreck the country and it's population, than I am having second thoughts."

You mean BJ & his circus ?

They were voted in
Democracy is not an optional extra
Whether in Wales or Westminster, the elected representatives are all there is

Who else would you want to decide, if not the elected representatives - the army making public health plans?

@Piggywaspushed

Not sure if this has been posted earlier in the day but some schools data on attendance:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54614111

Nick Gibb tries hard to minimise this but fails to understand (wilfully) how disruptive to learning this has become.

I started a new thread on this, given that it was about schools .

I'm all for democracy, but if this means that a small group of idiots can wreck the country and it's population, than I am having second thoughts.

Democracy certainly has it’s issues, but at least we have the option to vote the small group of idiots out every few years.

" I do wonder why they are grouping together 20 year olds with 7 year olds. the latter group has years to actually catch up, but the first group needs work/money now. Or training."

Deep poverty in childhood is a huge disadvantage, which hammers educational outcomes
e.g. from that link:
Last week, the former homelessness adviser, Dame Louise Casey, warned the UK face a “period of destitution””^ in which families “can’t put shoes on” children.

@Lumene

I'm all for democracy, but if this means that a small group of idiots can wreck the country and it's population, than I am having second thoughts.

Democracy certainly has it’s issues, but at least we have the option to vote the small group of idiots out every few years.

Democracy is still the way to go. Cons got a landslide. Starmer has to pull his team together to compete well.

Ah. I see here. Not got the mental energy for one of those threads...

Ha Piggy I hear you.

I wonder how that figure is spread. Ie heavily in NW etc

It would be interesting if the data showed that/the BBC reported it. I will dig.

Slides & Datasets for Presser today

For those of us who missed it:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-20-october-2020

Hospitalisations and ICU by age are especially useful
Also cases by region and age

@RigaBalsam

Q: Is the argument for a circuit breaker lockdown stronger or weaker than when Sage argued for it in September? Van-Tam says he has already explained why it would not be right for places like Cornwall or East Anglia. And he says a lockdown like that works best when case numbers are low. They are higher now than they were.

Hmmm

I’m interested in this too. If it’s possible to leave it too late for a circuit breaker, is it inevitable things will get out of hand and we’ll end out with another prolonged lockdown getting the numbers down?

@BigChocFrenzy

"I'm all for democracy, but if this means that a small group of idiots can wreck the country and it's population, than I am having second thoughts."

You mean BJ & his circus ?

They were voted in
Democracy is not an optional extra
Whether in Wales or Westminster, the elected representatives are all there is

Who else would you want to decide, if not the elected representatives - the army making public health plans?

The problem that the system is very distorted and flawed. You say democracy, but only 30% of all population voted for them. They do not represent the majority. I know this is the best humanity could come up with, but let's be fair, this is not good either. We just don't have any better.

This is the full data and no regional breakdown :

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak/2020-week-42

The Schoolsweek article is an interesting interrogation of the data:

schoolsweek.co.uk/dfes-revamped-attendance-stats-reveal-nearly-half-of-secondary-schools-have-pupils-self-isolating/

On the News they just commented on the significant disruption comparatively for schools in Crosby, although didn't cite a source.

Age 0-14 hospitalisations v low indeed

Even age 15-44 are low
... it looks an odd age split, but I suppose they wanted to concentrate on the much higher % of older age groups who are being hospitalised, even though they are the lowest % of new cases after the 0-9 group