Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

No figures for today yet?

Probably waiting because Boris is addressing the nation isn’t he?

@Shitfuckoh

No figures for today yet?

Site updating now!

They are updating it now apparently

Ah that always happens!

@SeekingAnswers3
Yes but that doesn't normally delay the figures. He generally seems to address the nation on the days when figures are released early/on time.

Ughh.

21,331 and 241 deaths

241, even allowing for Tuesday catch up that's high 😔

@cathyandclare

Ughh.

21,331 and 241 deaths

Not updated for me yet but surely the 241 deaths can't be correct? That seems extremely high. So does the case numbers too but the deaths are worrying if that's the correct figure.

Ahh I’m starting to get a headache. That’s terrible

Mine says 241 deaths too

www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/18808529.council-asks-government-talks-warrington-move-tier-3/
Council asks government for talks over any Warrington move to tier 3

It comes to something when Manchester has spent all week dealing with the government insising them must go into Tier 3. And here's Warrington sticking their hand up going 'errr excuse me, have you actually forgotten us again'?

If this was about numbers and an urgency led by concern about health and hospitals, why exactly are they the ones having to point out this?

Im so fucking angry this afternoon.

So does mine now. I was really hoping that was an error, not that I was saying you were wrong @cathyandclare - just hoping!

Do the govt get advance notice of the figures? I was assuming the 5pm conf was about Manchester but I wonder now if it's going to be something more. What were the figures when we went into lockdown in march?

I'd have been delighted to be wrong too. I'm waiting for them to upload all the data on death by date of death for the UK. You can usually see if a load of deaths from a while ago have been added. I know each death is a death, but it would be reassuring to see a more gentle curve.

Once the government announced large fines for failing to self isolate we all knew fewer people would test, not surprising that compliance is down but would be interested to know how much of this is not complying with getting a test when you have symptoms.

The government is pursuing herd immunity by stealth. Teachers are not permitted masks, students encouraged back to university. You can dress that up as protecting the future of the young - but the refusal to permit masks and the fines for self isolation indicate that isnt the real aim.

Giving test and trace to someone who has a track record of failure, against all public health advice - just another way to ensure nothing gets in the way of killing off anyone who costs you money.

The tricky part is not having that spotted/ evading the blame. The stories are normally very good at that, doesnt seem to be working as well this time around.

march 22 death figures were 281.

If they're going to do it, they need to do it now - hopefully our curve isn't as steep as in march but at the same time I'm not convinced the disease was quite as spread across the country then as it is now?

numbers today are grim but it does look like NW peaked on 12th October with 4733 specimen day positives. The subsequent days will end up a bit lower than that I think.

hospital bed use up by over 400 today, the size of increase that was being seen in early March. East of England still looking relatively good.

Hospital beds increase on 19/10 would include some catch up from the weekend. Saturday and Sunday numbers for patients in hospital are often incomplete / understated.

Manchester trend of positive cases is going down steadily. The problem is the trajectory is not consistent across other areas in GM.

Well if ADE is at play then changes whole dynamics of the West’s response.

mobile.twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1318565418571739137

This could partially explain why the numbers in the East of England look better (although I’d be surprised if this wasn’t representative of the whole country at this point )

www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/local-news/thousands-track-trace-covid-19-19131457.amp?__twitter_impression=true

New analysis reveals that Test and Trace failed to trace thousands of close contacts of people who tested positive for COVID-19 in the East of England last week and that the percentage of potentially infectious people reached is going down.

The analysis, verified by the House of Commons Library, shows that 3,181 people across the East were not reached by contact tracers, unable to handle the increase in COVID-19 cases as the country enters a second wave.

UK today

(previous days in brackets)

Shit, that 241 looks correct;
213 deaths are in England

Cases 21,331 .... (18,804 16,982 16,171 15,650 18,980 19,724 17,234 13,972, 12,872, 15,166, 13,864)
Deaths 241 ...... (80 67 150 136 138 137 143 50 65 81 87)

Even allowing for weekend catchup, big jump in deaths

• spread to the elderly and maybe care homes ?

Richards graph of deaths by date of death - shows how there is definite growth but not as dramatic as the headline suggests, as ever.

Also I think the green bit - none Hospital - is definitely going up as a proportion, which does suggest care home spread.

Richard@RP131 UK

Dashboard for 20-Oct to explain where the #covid19ukk^ total death increase figure of 241 actually comes from.
The PHE dataset merge resulted in a net of 79 additional deaths today.

This moves the 7 day rolling average up by 14 to 135.6.