Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

(sorry the above numbers all are single figures with the exception of Morecambe Bay which is 30 / 0).

So I THINK these are the numbers that actually matter rather than the number of beds. And my suspicion is that this will only tell you so much, because people won't even be booked in, so can't be cancelled.

We probably need a chart of waiting lists, with how many people for how long

I note here that the data on critical care beds has a note about covid.

COVID-19 and the production of statistics

Due to the coronavirus illness (COVID-19) and the need to release capacity across the NHS to support the response, we paused the collection and publication of some of our official statistics.

Initially this applied to the statistics listed in Annex A, for data due to be submitted between 1 April and 30 June. This was subsequently extended to apply to data due to be submitted between 1 July and 30 September.

The list of data collections that have been paused has now been updated for Quarter 3 and 4 2020/21. The table below outlines which collections will continue to be paused. The dates on which those statistics would have been released are also shown in the table.

We will keep the list and dates under review ahead of 2021/22 Q1 to establish if further collections should be reinstated or paused.

So they stopped officially collating this data as normal in March.

I should say that data set is 'urgent operations' cancelled. I guess that we should also be concerned about the classification of 'urgent' and 'non urgent' operations and whether there is a shift in this.

Wales - Technical Advisory Group: fire breaks

Very informative. analysis of current situation,
with summary of the numbered circuit-breakers, including ones for hospitals

gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-10/technical-advisory-group-fire-breaks_2.pdf

Thanks RTB. I was starting to think I was going a bit mad because the data must be somewhere. And both Burnham and Johnson must have access to it. The fact that it isn’t being released makes me really distrustful.

compared to those getting a test is hardly a big deal. And yet individualism trumps everything. Why?

Because, as my second sentence implied, I see the right to determine medical testing and treatment as a fundamental human right. I’m against any and all forced (or coerced) medical testing and treatment. Bodily autonomy comes first. I believe the consequences of ceding that right to the state are far too terrifying. The only concession I’m willing to make is for those who are unable to make decisions for themselves.

This is getting away from data though, so it might be best if we just agree to disagree.

@BigChocFrenzy

We probably need a chart of waiting lists, with how many people for how long

Yep I think thats where to go next.

Asking the right questions on this looks to be key, and having had a good look at last years data, I'd say its murky and hides more things than it reveals anyway and that the information we are getting now is a combination of misleading and largely irrelevant at present.

A waiting list in the form of a heat map would be informative

Responsible public health authorities would be aware of striking a balance between health priorities, as well as econopmic and social effects

That Wales firebreak report has this reflection:

"5. Balance of harms (TAC)

Both intervening and not intervening will cause harm:

long and short-term harms, direct and indirect harms, economic harms, social and psychological harms and health harms.

There could be a disproportionate impact on many different groups of people and it will be vital to mitigate against as many of the harms as possible."

No Deal with Manchester.

Looks like Johnson will impose restrictions on G Manchester without consent of local leaders.

We definitely need to be really careful about civil rights and the government grabbing powers during the pandemic, but there are a lot of grey areas and people who draw the line in different places aren't necessarily on opposite sides of an authoritarian (or not) divide. When analysis gets too much into "the problem with the sort of people who want X is..." or "there are too many of such and such a sort of person pushing Y...". It promotes the idea there are 'things proposed by good people' and 'things proposed by bad people', and I think that perception works directly against what we need for NZ-style public buy in, which is lots of focus on (and discussion of) proposed measures and as little as possible on what's wrong (or right) about the people proposing or opposing them.

Waiting with interest for a sewage update...

One of the school studies, I think the London Sch of Hygiene one, includes school sewage studies too!

Burnham wanted £75m
Offered £60m rather than lower limit of £65m

Is that right?

Does he now only get £22m and forced tier 3 or £60m I wonder

The problem is that some people on both sides of the debate want the government to impose their particular wishes by force - but only their wishes -

whether that be to override / sack the First Minister to keep schools open in Wales,
or to override / sack Burnham to close things in GM and also ban public demonstrations

Public health must proceed by consent, because forced compliance of whole populations is only possible in ruthless dictatorships like China that can keep control.
At worse, it could lead to local uprisings, but much more likely to increased evasion of measures and withdrawal of consent by the governed

Offered £60m rather than lower limit of £65m

Is that right?

MP for Oldham on LBC just completely denied this. Refused to say what the offer was though.

The govt will then be held to acount by the people there for any and all economic damage and financial hardship, to individuals and businesses
Local Tory MPs & councillors will be very worried

How much will the GM police try to enforce regulations under these circumstances anyway ?

everyone in GM that I know supports Andy Burnham totally, I wouldn't have thought that what the government comes up with will now be less (proportionally) than what was offered to Liverpool and Lancashire, as this would infuriate the local MPs (Boris really doesn't want to fall out with Graham Brady) but who knows.

This all came down to 5 million which works out as something like £1.78 per gm resident. Shameful.

@ChloeCrocodile

Offered £60m rather than lower limit of £65m

Is that right?

MP for Oldham on LBC just completely denied this. Refused to say what the offer was though.

Oh right I got it from LBC, different person. And then googled to double check. It could be wrong but it’s bring reiterated already.

Someone in another thread has just posted that Matt Hancock is giving a statement at 7pm, in HoC / to public? Am not sure. GM as well?

@Augustbreeze
re the Matt Hancock announcement that will be because parliament have been getting uppity that they haven't been able to debate new measures recently. So whatever Boris says at 5pm will also be announced by Hancock at 7pm in parliament so that they have an opportunity to 'debate' it. Arguably it should be the other way round. I don't think there is any doubt that whatever Boris says will be happening though .

William Wragg MP @william_wragg
The sense of failure is overwhelming. I shall avoid political comment until I have heard @MattHancock’s statement in @HouseofCommons this evening. Leadership is required from everybody. Trust is placed in us all and that is the privilege of public office.

Interesting.

Hes certainly not happy.

From Manchester evening news:
Andy Burnham to hold press conference at 4pm

Andy Burnham is due to hold a press conference ahead of the PM’s appearance at Downing Street.

The GM mayor will be speaking and answering questions from the press at 4pm outside the Bridgewater Hall.

@RedToothBrush
Wragg is my MP and although has been quite useless in many areas over the years has really stepped up since covid came on the scene. He was very cross with Hancock in parliament the other day. Good for him!

Retweeted by Sunday Times Journalist David Collins

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
5. Govt source says ‘Other local leaders in GM were more reasonable and constructive but Burnham was too proud to make a deal.’
6. GM source says there was 'unanimity' on their side, and govt was 'trying to grind us' into accepting a deal that was too low

David Collins @davidcollinsST
Was just asked on BBC News channel about Andy Burnham being too proud to take a deal.

There are 10 borough leaders in GM saying the same as Burnham, along with many senior Tory MPs. The idea this is about one man being too "proud" is Whitehall dark arts at play.

Manchester's negotiation breakdown is symbolic of something far deeper than Labour v Tory.

This is about the north/south divide; the over centralisation of the pandemic response and the state generally; and the perceived ignorance of Whitehall

This is getting REALLY frustrating.

As William Wragg's Tweet points out, there was backbench pressure in the tory party as well as issues with the Labour Party in Manchester.

The optics of this in the North is dreadful. And its not going completely unnoticed by blue quarters up here.

Agreed. I can tell you there's support for Manchester from this side of the Pennines too, which is rare!