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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

1000 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 18:06

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
81
BigChocFrenzy · 20/10/2020 13:11

I support the rights of parents belonging to "Boycott Return to Unsafe Schools"
even though I think it is overall beneficial to keep schools open ft as long as feasible - for those who choose to attend

Parents should be able to make the choice to keep their children home without penalty,
whether their reason is thinking schools are unsafe,
or whther it is being unwilling to subject their children to invasive tests as a requirement for attendance

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/10/2020 13:20

Commercial establishments may indeed have the right to demand proof of a negative testing

  • and I will boycott such businesses, as is my right

Ditto proof of vaccination later - even though I will definitely have the vaccine
(unless my GP specifically advises against for me0

I gladly give my contact details to the only places where I choose to mix atm - my gym and 2 restaurants (outside only) - which is my choice as a customer

Anyway, commercial interests mean there would be a big market in fake certificates for codes, tests & vaccinations etc if businesses actually demanded them

OP posts:
ChloeCrocodile · 20/10/2020 13:22

I’m really confused about Manchester. Do we have access to the data on hospital bed occupancy? Even just raw numbers of how many people are in hospital and what the capacity is? I see such differing accounts that I no longer believe any reporting, I need the original data.

Choconuttolata · 20/10/2020 13:26

I think if greater compliance is required there needs to be more income support to encourage people to stay at home. Those in the poorer socioeconomic groups already have worse outcomes for health and for Covid. If we fail to support families now we are pushing many into poverty increasing likelihood of poor health in the adults and in their children now and for the future which will further burden the healthcare system and place them at risk from Covid/other diseases.

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.bma.org.uk/media/2084/health-at-a-price-2017.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwij0_Xoj8PsAhVIXMAKHWtZDxYQFjACegQIDhAF&usg=AOvVaw2tLit2FaliF0ghWDn_cszF" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.bma.org.uk/media/2084/health-at-a-price-2017.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwij0_Xoj8PsAhVIXMAKHWtZDxYQFjACegQIDhAF&usg=AOvVaw2tLit2FaliF0ghWDn_cszF

www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/living-in-poverty-was-bad-for-your-health-long-before-COVID-19

ChloeCrocodile · 20/10/2020 13:30

We don’t demand proof of vaccination to access school or workplaces so I don’t see why we should accept a demand for testing. I’m not willing to give up the right to decide my own medical testing and treatment in order to participate in society. In fact, I think any move to make testing compulsory would be met with serious pushback, even amongst those of us who are broadly supportive of containment measures.

I’m not sure there are sufficient people worried enough about COVID to make a significant commercial impact. Bear in mind the massive resistance to wearing masks, and the fact that every major supermarket in England refused to police it. Even the basic “leave your details for test and trace” at restaurants is rarely enforced - especially at the cheaper places.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/10/2020 13:31

@Augustbreeze

Don't think this has been posted yet, apologies if it has:

ONS report that number of death certificates mentioning Covid rose last week by 38% on the previous week.

Sorry I can't find this figure via the ONS links in the OP - am sure someone more familiar with then will be able to - but the BBC is reporting this.

....... This is the ONS report, England & Wales, released today for deaths in the week ending 9 October

117 / 321 deaths is a 36% increase in weekly Covid deaths
Covid for week ending 9 Oct was 4.4% of all deaths in England + Wales

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 9 October 2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending9october2020

•	Of the deaths registered in Week 41, 438 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", accounting for 4.4% of all deaths in England and Wales; 
	this is an increase of 117 deaths compared with Week 40 (when there were 321 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 3.2% of all deaths).

•	The numbers of deaths in hospitals and care homes remained below the five-year average in Week 41 (374 and 175 fewer deaths respectively), 
	while the number of deaths in private homes remained above the five-year average (705 more deaths).

•	In England, the total number of deaths increased from 9,257 (Week 40) to 9,308 (Week 41; 
	the East, London, the South East and the South West regions had lower overall deaths than the five-year average. 

•	Overall, there were 401 deaths involving COVID-19 in England in Week 41; 
the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in seven of the nine English regions, with the North West having the largest number (153 deaths).
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
OP posts:
MRex · 20/10/2020 13:36

Heads-up for all parties who've developed a new interest in sewage, there MAY be news coming.

TheSunIsStillShining · 20/10/2020 13:40

My 2 cents
What is problematic in the western world that human and privacy rights have been not thought through properly. It's legacy foundations and scaffolding with very different colors and forms of elements. It's a mess with generalistic concepts and outdated theories.
Nobody (and I actually mean a body consisting of multiple ppl) has looked at it from all angles. Govs/regulatory bodies usually look at it from 1 angle, solve/scaffold that and don't care about the overall picture.

An example. Schools would need to know:

  1. why someone is off sick (check, parents mostly say when calling it)*
  2. They need confirmation from PHE/Testing facility that pupilA is booked in for a test
  3. Need to know result of the test
  4. Other close contacts and/or schools involved (through siblings) need to be alerted.

*let's disregard the "won't say it might be covid, so I won't have to test, and won't have to isolate" scenario and assume that each individual is socially responsible. We know it's not true, but for this example let's go with it.

Here is a very small piece of the data puzzle.

Parent to school: 1. kid is sick, suspected covid - yes/no
if yes:
|| school to PHE/LA test team
|| identify close contacts and send list to PHE in || with notifying identified parents

has pupil or parent booked a test? yes/no {not possible because of privacy rights}
If no: PHE/test team book an appointment for them and notify

Test done: yes/no

Test result: positive/negative
if [both]: notify school AND parent AND identified contacts {not possible because of privacy rights It's up to the parent to notify the school about test results, at least in our school's policy}
if +; to parent: notification + date of next booked test + helpline numbers + legal requirements in a few lines (what you need to do exactly - parents to stay home until x, siblings go/nogo to school, etc)
AND
option for asking for help (shopping, whatever, bring 2 puzzles because we are bored*)

Half of these measures are not doable atm because of privacy measures. BUT if we think on a personal level: most people have google or apple services. These track you unless you specifically opt out, and hardly anyone does. These send you notification and know where you've been, even sometimes who you were in contact with.

On an individual level we are happy to have amazon, google, apple collect millions of data points of us for commercial and profit reasons, but when it comes to gov wanting to share and access data points about us between gov agencies for public health reasons we are all up in arms.
As much as people are against centralised control there is a huge and genuine need to collect and record data on covid and share these between agencies.

Plus I'd love to see all data being available in a fekking huge, openly accessible, anonymized datalake for everyone to use. For research.

*I am pretty sure that there would be a base of charities and volunteers that could do this btw

BigChocFrenzy · 20/10/2020 13:43

@MRex

Heads-up for all parties who've developed a new interest in sewage, there MAY be news coming.
.... Yay ! I want data on 💩 !

Do you have a date and where it will be issued ?

OP posts:
TheSunIsStillShining · 20/10/2020 13:48

@ChloeCrocodile

We don’t demand proof of vaccination to access school or workplaces so I don’t see why we should accept a demand for testing. I’m not willing to give up the right to decide my own medical testing and treatment in order to participate in society. In fact, I think any move to make testing compulsory would be met with serious pushback, even amongst those of us who are broadly supportive of containment measures.

I’m not sure there are sufficient people worried enough about COVID to make a significant commercial impact. Bear in mind the massive resistance to wearing masks, and the fact that every major supermarket in England refused to police it. Even the basic “leave your details for test and trace” at restaurants is rarely enforced - especially at the cheaper places.

I think in your first sentence lies a big clue of why we are struggling so much so with this whole thing.
If we take society first -as in a pandemic there are reasonable arguments to do so- then this would have to be the first step.

You can't drive without a licence
You can't fly without a passport
You can't be a doctor without a proper degree
etc.

compared to those getting a test is hardly a big deal. And yet individualism trumps everything. Why? Why is it acceptable that it should be Joe's own decision to potentially infect x-many kids in school because he sends in joe jr. when he potentially has covid?

What gives Joe the right and the authority to decide this? Many people's argument is that it's Joe's parental rights. Which is utterly wrong as it is no longer about Joe and joe jr. It is about the 150 other kids in the same "bubble"/school that joe jr breathes the same air with. Or about the 25 he sits all day in the same class with.

MarshaBradyo · 20/10/2020 13:49

@RedToothBrush

Thread See new Tweets Conversation Paul Waugh *@paulwaugh* Change of tack/tone from *@RishiSunak* on circuit breaker? In Treasury questions in Commons he said: "I agree with the PM [nothing is ruled out]."

Last week he was more bullish.

Last week: "We cannot just let the virus take hold, but nor can we blithely fall into another national spring-style lockdown, as the Labour party wants to, rather than following our regional, tiered and localised approach."

There is a surprisingly high level of public support for a circuit breaker...

Re public support do you mean a poll?
pussycatinboots · 20/10/2020 13:50

*Yay !
I want data on 💩 !

Do you have a date and where it will be issued ?*

It will be printed on quite small sheets, which are perforated at both ends. Xmas Grin

Witchend · 20/10/2020 13:51

@pussycatinboots 🤣🤣🤣

MRex · 20/10/2020 13:52

@BigChocFrenzy - by end of week, as a press statement from DEFRA.

I'm a bit confused by the long debate above that seems to keep referencing that 90% of people aren't complying with anything related to Covid restrictions. Older Sage reports had higher compliance than that when they counted leaving the house for a test as breaking isolation (seriously!). There are also clearly degrees of issue; taking a child for a quiet walk to get fresh air versus inviting your mates over during isolation. So where has the statistic come from, and how does it break down?

PatriciaHolm · 20/10/2020 13:55

@MRex

Heads-up for all parties who've developed a new interest in sewage, there MAY be news coming.
"May be".:

Has it got clogged up in the system? ;-)

(Sorry sorry sorry)

alreadytaken · 20/10/2020 13:56

vaccination certificates can be faked, test certificates can be faked - but a rapid test at an airport can be verified with your passport photo and boarding pass, much more difficult to fake. Equally rapid test before, say, attending a restaurant - can be faked but more trouble than it's worth. I'm sure there will be dives venues that dont want to do that and I'll avoid going anywhere near them.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/10/2020 13:56

"These track you unless you specifically opt out, and hardly anyone does."

I have opted out on every App etc - I check each one
You might be surprised how many people do opt out of many things
e.g. Covid App - which I don't have

I pay by cash for almost everything not online, out of convenience & habit - Germany (my area at least) is very much a cash society,
with cards only for very large purchases and sometimes not then
e.g. people often paying several hundred in cash in shops and buting cars for thousands in cash

I am far more cautious about data the government has, because they have sanctions & powers that companies do not
They are also prone to making mistakes, sometimes with horrendous consequences for the individuals affected

Any remnants of blind faith in govt I might once have had, as a naive child, were killed off by watching a succession of miscarriages of justice against Irish people
and successive Uk govts refusing so long to admit this, even when it was obvious later to the whole damn world

Since then, there have been so many disgraceful abuses of power by the state, some by cockup, many as deliberate policy.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 20/10/2020 14:00

@ChloeCrocodile

I’m really confused about Manchester. Do we have access to the data on hospital bed occupancy? Even just raw numbers of how many people are in hospital and what the capacity is? I see such differing accounts that I no longer believe any reporting, I need the original data.
Do we have access to the data on hospital bed occupancy? Even just raw numbers of how many people are in hospital and what the capacity is?

The MEN tried to get data on the current position compared with previous Octobers and the Peak in April. They couldn't get it. They wanted it for exactly the same reason as you do.

From what data I have for Warrington, Whiston and Liverpool I have come to the conclusion that:

  1. There is a particular problem in Liverpool that hasn't quite reached Warrington or Whiston.
  2. Normal bed capacity is misleading to a degree, because capacity can be expanded.
  3. Services at Warrington and Whiston haven't yet been hit. Both are operating 'clean sites' at their sister hospitals within their respective trusts so are better able to carry out normal services that way for the time being. However its likely that Whiston is likely to start to cutting non-covid services on site soon.
  4. Liverpool doesn't have the same luxury of this, because of its location and the back up hospitals in the neighbouring trusts also lacking capacity. That means emergency divisions of over an hour are a risk if action isn't taken.
  5. Liverpool's medical director stated that normal capacity at this time of year was 90% anyway, which backs up whats been said about 80% capacity being the current position in Manchester and this being 'normal'.
  6. Manchester, due to its location, number of hospitals and the fact it has a Nightingale within the city, posibly has more options for contigency planning and diverting patients if that situation arises than Liverpool does.
  7. Its likely that Manchester will start cancelling operations soon, but then thats normal anyway. This will be more pronounced than in previous years, but winter contingency planning is a fact of life within the current NHS.

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/number-beds-wales-hospitals-lowest-16833051
If you want to see something pre-pandemic about hospital bed occupancy and 'safe' levels then this article is a good starting point. Wales has a particularly low number of beds per head of population.

I've also just found this:
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/critical-care-capacity/critical-care-bed-capacity-and-urgent-operations-cancelled-2019-20-data/
This data is from last October. It gives the number of critical care beds for each trust together with the number occupied.

Here's the data for the NW, but its got the info for other regions.
Liverpool Heart And Chest Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 30 (30)
Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 59 (51)
Liverpool Women's NHS Foundation Trust 2 (1)
Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust 108 (94)
Mid Cheshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 11 (8)
Pennine Acute Hospitals NHS Trust 36 (27)
Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust 30 (29)
Southport And Ormskirk Hospital NHS Trust 11 (10)
St Helens And Knowsley Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust 14 (12)
Stockport NHS Foundation Trust 13 (10)
Tameside And Glossop Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust 9 (9)
The Christie NHS Foundation Trust 6 (5)
The Walton Centre NHS Foundation Trust 20 (11)
University Hospitals Of Morecambe Bay NHS Foundation Trust 14 (10)
Warrington And Halton Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 18 (18)
Wirral University Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 18 (18)
Wrightington, Wigan And Leigh NHS Foundation Trust 11 (6)

BigChocFrenzy · 20/10/2020 14:00

We don't live in either a communist or a communitarian society, but one where individual rights are prioritised

Consider e.g. the opposition to mandatory vaccination, even amongst those of us who strongly believe in vaccination and would always personally choose to vaccinate

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/10/2020 14:03

Even in normal times, that ICU capacity looks decidedly tight in some places

OP posts:
TheSunIsStillShining · 20/10/2020 14:04

@BigChocFrenzy

I have opted out on every App etc - I check each one
You might be surprised how many people do opt out of many things
e.g. Covid App - which I don't have

I'm not talking user installed apps mostly (those too)

Yes, I look through them too as I work in the industry with gdpr and loads of diff types of data so I know better. But we are a small fraction of very mindful ppl.

Cash: Uk is becoming more and more a cashless society.

I am far more cautious about data the government has, because they have sanctions & powers that companies do not
They are also prone to making mistakes, sometimes with horrendous consequences for the individuals affected

I fully agree! (being on of those who were really hurt on many levels by gov abusing privacy)
BUT
there has to be a certain level that is mandatory for functioning and dealing with a crisis + there have to be safeguards, independent regulatory bodies set up as a countermeasure.

I think the problem lies in the fact when counter measures and orgs are not utilized or set up and gov is let loose on data without public oversight.

PatriciaHolm · 20/10/2020 14:05

The UCL Covid social study has some data on compliance (latest study to Oct 7 though) suggesting "majority compliance" is steady at 90% ish but complete compliance is trending down to about 40%. It also notes that

"These findings should be interpreted in light of the results in Report 17 showing that understanding of the current guidelines, though, is low. As such, these figures reflect people’s belief that they are complying rather than necessarily actual compliance levels."

Compliance is lowest in the 18-29 age groups.

b6bdcb03-332c-4ff9-8b9d-28f9c957493a.filesusr.com/ugd/3d9db5_636933e8191d4783866c474fab3ca23c.pdf

RedToothBrush · 20/10/2020 14:05

However, I think the bed question isn't necessarily the one to be asked.

Its this:

Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern
Question for the NHS is not whether it will be overwhelmed - but how many operations it will be forced to cancel in order to keep on top of #Covid19UK admissions. Using Nightingales needs staff...that will mean cancelled ops...Opening surge beds...that will mean cancelled ops.

Jennifer Williams @JenWilliamsMEN
Exactly

RedToothBrush · 20/10/2020 14:07

We also have the data for last october on this. This is for the NW. The first number is an operation cancelled, and the second number is an operation cancelled for a second time or more.

Alder Hey Children's NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 2 0
Bolton NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Countess Of Chester Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
East Cheshire NHS Trust 0 0
East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust 0 0
Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Liverpool Heart And Chest Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 3 0
Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Liverpool Women's NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Mid Cheshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Pennine Acute Hospitals NHS Trust 0 0
Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Southport And Ormskirk Hospital NHS Trust 0 0
St Helens And Knowsley Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust 3 0
Stockport NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Tameside And Glossop Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
The Christie NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
The Walton Centre NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
University Hospitals Of Morecambe Bay NHS Foundation Trust 30 0
Warrington And Halton Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Wirral University Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 0 0
Wrightington, Wigan And Leigh NHS Foundation Trust 0 0

BigChocFrenzy · 20/10/2020 14:09

"Its likely that Manchester will start cancelling operations soon, but then thats normal anyway.
This will be more pronounced than in previous years, but winter contingency planning is a fact of life within the current NHS. "

That's very depressing as a norm

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