Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Re: lack of compliance with isolation.

Sorry, I guess this is anecdata, but during this term I've come across several intelligent, usually very socially responsible parents just not getting (or perhaps deciding to ignore?) the rules for their kids when their bubbles are sent home from school. They really seem to believe that if they get their own kids tested (symptomatic or not) and get a negative result then they can let them loose before the end of the 14 days.

I think it might make a difference if there was a big communication push to make these rules so crystal bloody clear that there can be no excuse for misunderstanding them.

(I know this is just one of several reasons why people might not be isolating properly.)

You’re forgetting the economic factor too. Commercial companies will want testing for market demand reasons. People will choose to attend tested events in the main as it means they can watch the football match with grandpa etc in confidence. The majority of the population would choose to socialise in a safe environment over a risky one even if not out of concern for themselves but so they can continue to see more vulnerable relatives etc. It’ll be driven by market forces.

@Oaktree55

You’re forgetting the economic factor too. Commercial companies will want testing for market demand reasons. People will choose to attend tested events in the main as it means they can watch the football match with grandpa etc in confidence. The majority of the population would choose to socialise in a safe environment over a risky one even if not out of concern for themselves but so they can continue to see more vulnerable relatives etc. It’ll be driven by market forces.

Ah market forces.

There we go.

Gotcha.

Except market forces tend to have a checked history in being in the best interests of everyone.

I’m just making the point that compulsory testing for much of life will be the norm both commercially driven and for other areas such as hospital visits/foreign travel etc. It’s a good thing given situation we’re in and if it’s a tool to get out of this most will be in favour.

@Augustbreeze If we send our kids to school all through this winter,the chances of them and us getting covid are really high. If rates go up in your area and you are ecv, then it would make sense for them and for you to home-school if you can.

I thought we were discussing whether teenagers could consent - if teenagers are happy not to wear coats in winter they can decide whether they want to be in a ventilated v unventilated classroom.

If rapid testing comes in I may be willing to get back on a plane - provided testing is compulsory. I suspect a lot of people will feel the same way. And if a restaurant advertises that all staff and patrons have to have a rapid test I'm more likely to go there. Market forces will lead to rapid testing being rolled out very quickly once it's reasonably reliable.

Jesus christ it depresses me that people just bleat on about 'its for the greater good' like zombies and dont actually think.

Deadline for agreement in Gtr Manchester has just passed.

@RedToothBrush oh I think alright! Critical thinking is something I pride myself on. Different opinion to you though. Big difference.

Liverpool daily data

Report published 20th October 2020
Cases data from week 11th-17th October 2020
Data extracted covering testing up to 17th October 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 2902, a decrease of 538 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 582.7 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 18.7%.

Between 13th - 19th October 2020 there were 179 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 30% (n=54) were Covid-19 deaths.

30%. Raises eyebrows

[quote herecomesthsun]@Augustbreeze If we send our kids to school all through this winter,the chances of them and us getting covid are really high. If rates go up in your area and you are ecv, then it would make sense for them and for you to home-school if you can.[/quote]
Oh I agree, I perhaps should have stated that scenario. The parents I was referring to are those who are overly anxious about their children or them catching COVID, ie they are not in a vulnerable group.

Those plus the ones with an ECV household member might make quite large dents in some schools attendance even though the school is kept open.

Has anyone got any thoughts on the Zoe app?
It's been slowly going up the last few weeks, but today there's been a jump in our area (from about 120 to 150, the highest it's been-it's mostly been under 100) and the total number I thought was around 405k yesterday and it's now 420k.

If we send our kids to school all through this winter,the chances of them and us getting covid are really high. If rates go up in your area and you are ecv, then it would make sense for them and for you to home-school if you can.

Yes, I agree, but there will be no help from the school at all as things stand and you may be forced to deregister, losing the school place.

Because of the lack of home provision and the threat of fines and off-rolling, it makes it a very difficult decision.

TES are beginning to report on the lies from DfE about schools - in this case the lie that 'smaller class sizes' are a thing that are happening in UK schools.

www.tes.com/news/covid-teachers-condemn-safety-ads-small-class-sizes-claim

Witchend- our town had been going down for the last few days on Zoe, then suddenly jumped from about 160 to about 260 yesterday. I've no idea why.

Worrying summary of admissions in NI’s worst hit region (this would be the most obvious hospital for Strabane and Derry council areas - “we are actually seeing nearly in a day at the Covid centre in Altnagelvin what we were seeing in a month during the very difficult lockdown period of March and April”

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-foyle-west-54612567

(It's reported as being nasal swab plus saliva collection, not throat swab?)

The one I'm part of is an invasive throat swab administered by a medical professional weekly in a senior school setting.

Fwiw I agree completely with BCF about the erosion of freedoms under the name of Covid.

Presser with the PM with VT and someone else at 5pm.

Talks have been ongoing with Manchester post noon deadline. Latest is that Johnson has got personally involved and has spoken to Burnham this afternoon.

Still no resolution reached yet.

[quote herecomesthsun]@Augustbreeze If we send our kids to school all through this winter,the chances of them and us getting covid are really high. If rates go up in your area and you are ecv, then it would make sense for them and for you to home-school if you can.[/quote]
I don’t know, we’re in tier 2 but both my children’s schools (one primary with circa 200 children and one secondary with circa 1200) have no children isolating atm. I know there might be asymptotic cases but surely some would be showing up.

Sorry, the study I was referring to is the London School for Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, plus PHE I think, announced yesterday, not started yet.

Glad to hear BJ and AB talking directly, had kind of assumed they would be already.

@RedToothBrush who is VT? If this is a press conference, I can't see any info on the BBC website about this.

Listening to Jenrick on R4 I got the impression that at the 12.00 deadline he would report to Johnson that a deal could not be made. I guess at that point Johnson got involved directly.

[quote herecomesthsun]@RedToothBrush who is VT? If this is a press conference, I can't see any info on the BBC website about this.[/quote]
It's just been announced on BBC news, so I guess the schedule hasn't been updated yet.
VT=Jonathan Van Tam, Deputy Chief Medical Officer

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
@BorisJohnson will lead a No.10 press conference 5pm tonight to set out progress on Greater Manchester decisions re local restrictions.
Jonathan Van Tam and Stephen Powis will also give updates on spread of the virus.

The PM has been talking personally on the phone to @AndyBurnhamGM in the last few minutes, No10 says.

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Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Change of tack/tone from @RishiSunak on circuit breaker?
In Treasury questions in Commons he said: "I agree with the PM [nothing is ruled out]."

Last week he was more bullish.

Last week: "We cannot just let the virus take hold, but nor can we blithely fall into another national spring-style lockdown, as the Labour party wants to, rather than following our regional, tiered and localised approach."

There is a surprisingly high level of public support for a circuit breaker...

Don't think this has been posted yet, apologies if it has:

ONS report that number of death certificates mentioning Covid rose last week by 38% on the previous week.

Sorry I can't find this figure via the ONS links in the OP - am sure someone more familiar with then will be able to - but the BBC is reporting this.