Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

[quote Oaktree55]@BigChocFrenzy what are you talking about? You seem to be coming up with completely ridiculous scenarios.[/quote]
...
I am talking about the principle of whether children should be allowed to make decisions about participation in studies,
especially those that directly affect their family

This relates to my concern that Covid is being allowed to over-ride basic rights and protections against the state

Covid is not more important than anything else for ever more

@Oaktree55

Has anyone thought about the likely numbers if we end up with a vaccine with 50% efficacy and say 30-40% uptake over the next year? This is why I think testing will be a requirement in day to day life. Vaccines at least not the early ones won’t give a big enough dent.

... There is a limit to how long there will be public consent for SD and for widespread testing, particular until the tests can be made less unpleasant, e.g. saliva

It depends whether the vaccine is sufficient to bring R below 1

@BigChocFrenzy it’s more important at present purely due to maths. Its effects on health and economy are enormous. I think that’s self evident. Until we have more tools to deal with it then yes it kind of is more prominent in everyone’s lives for obvious reasons.

I think your examples are ridiculous. If anything it’s taking less precedent than it should in educational settings. I’m given a letter re headlice but not a novel pathogen.

@BigChocFrenzy I disagree it’s the virus that causes the havoc not the policies. If rapid tests come into play that’s a game changer for controlling this.

I think anyone who objects to testing when the result is a return to normality needs their head examined. It’s akin to saying being searched at an airport is infringing your rights etc etc

[quote Oaktree55]@BigChocFrenzy it’s more important at present purely due to maths. Its effects on health and economy are enormous. I think that’s self evident. Until we have more tools to deal with it then yes it kind of is more prominent in everyone’s lives for obvious reasons.

I think your examples are ridiculous. If anything it’s taking less precedent than it should in educational settings. I’m given a letter re headlice but not a novel pathogen.[/quote]
...
imo they are not ridiculous, particularly the ventilation one, but there would be other examples of where a child may chose to participate in something that affects the family

The problem with giving up rights to the state is that they are increasingly reluctant to give them back
and UK law in particular works on the basis of precedent

This is what could cause me to withdraw consent from longterm measures after a vaccine

• the increasingly authoritarianism among those who are so concerned about Covid

@BigChocFrenzy

re isolation:

nearly 90% not isolating as they should, indicates non-compliance is about a lot more than than just financial worries

The reasons need to be analysed and addressed as far as possible

How do you address a total collapse in trust in government due to putting their political interests before their responsibilities to the public?

I’d be interested to see what the change in compliance is in countries that have reduced number of dats.

Days

@BigChocFrenzy I assume by affect the family you mean they’d need to isolate? Well so they should. It’s for a good public health reason.

It probably also would affect the family if the parents went out drinking till 4 am then couldn’t drive to work due to drink drive laws but they’re there for a reason!

I agree basic elements such as parental consent are right to be fixed.

[quote Oaktree55]@BigChocFrenzy I disagree it’s the virus that causes the havoc not the policies. If rapid tests come into play that’s a game changer for controlling this.

I think anyone who objects to testing when the result is a return to normality needs their head examined. It’s akin to saying being searched at an airport is infringing your rights etc etc[/quote]
No.

First of all, mass testing is something of a pipe dream. Certainly for the immediate future.

If getting a test means the police can check up on you or your data is given to the private sector or it means you may have to isolate, then mass testing wont work. Especially if complying means you cant feed your kids or keep a roof over your head.

It will result in civil disobedience and refusal to engage.

You cant solve the problem by testing or tracing alone at this point. Theres deeper problems now that are ingrained into issues mostly because of poor relations between the government and the public.

[quote Oaktree55]@BigChocFrenzy I assume by affect the family you mean they’d need to isolate? Well so they should. It’s for a good public health reason.

It probably also would affect the family if the parents went out drinking till 4 am then couldn’t drive to work due to drink drive laws but they’re there for a reason![/quote]
This isnt how the world works.

Authoritarian approaches arent going to help on this one.

[quote Oaktree55]@BigChocFrenzy I disagree it’s the virus that causes the havoc not the policies. If rapid tests come into play that’s a game changer for controlling this.

I think anyone who objects to testing when the result is a return to normality needs their head examined. It’s akin to saying being searched at an airport is infringing your rights etc etc[/quote]
....
Harm is indeed being caused by those of an authoritarian bent
and the lack of tolerance for anyone disagreeing with all possible Covid measures

Some more authoritarian politicians have been using the crisis to increase the powers of the state
and it has brought out authoritarianism among some members of the public

Whether compulsory testing needs to continue longterm after vaccine rollout depends on the balance for the public good,
probably mainly if R>1 without it

It shouldn't be just a reflex decision that testing and / or SD should have to continue without proof they are necessary

Pretty much snap, red

Authoritarianism is a sure way of turning Covid from a public health crisis into a crisis of democracy and civil order

All responsible public health experts say that maintaining trust and consent of the public is a prerequisite fo tackling even the public health aspects of an epidemic

I would not engage with compulsory testing.

@BigChocFrenzy I think you’re mixing a lot of things to muddy a debate, brining in data confidentiality issues etc. Crikey there’s a lot of paranoia about no other wonder this country’s in a mess. How about we all start trying to do our bit to help in the Pandemic.

[quote Oaktree55]@BigChocFrenzy I think you’re mixing a lot of things to muddy a debate, brining in data confidentiality issues etc. Crikey there’s a lot of paranoia about no other wonder this country’s in a mess. How about we all start trying to do our bit to help in the Pandemic.[/quote]
Shes not.

Really shes not.

I wish she was.

"How do you address a total collapse in trust in government due to putting their political interests before their responsibilities to the public?"

I suspect that is the major reason behind the nearly 90% non-compliance

That % of people won't be at risk of financial hardship
They could isolate, but they have decided they won't

Increasing authoritarianism would only reinforce and widen that lack of trust in the authorities

@RedToothBrush what do you mean by not engage? So if a venue has a requirement to be tested for entry as often they do now to be scanned for terrorism purposes you wouldn’t go?

Jingoism and blind shit about duty.

Yeah thats great. Worked well for the soliders in WWI.

This government is of the same mentality.

[quote Oaktree55]@RedToothBrush what do you mean by not engage? So if a venue has a requirement to be tested for entry as often they do now to be scanned for terrorism purposes you wouldn’t go?[/quote]
I mean that if the government or an authority says i have to do something, i make an informed decision of whether its in my long term interest to do so.

Do not use straw men arguments about terrorism with me.

I personally dont think mass CCTV as a response to terrorism in my town was progress nor did it stop the problem...

Although the issues about secondary age children holding different views to their legally responsible parents are interesting and relevant to the whole school transmission studies, I think bigger problems with consent will occur in primaries and possibly nurseries.

Some parents won't want their "babies" undergoing even a minimally invasive a procedure on a weekly basis. (It's reported as being nasal swab plus saliva collection, not throat swab?)

Separately, the anxious parents of the Boycott Return to Unsafe Schools Fb group are saying that if their area were to go into lockdown, they would not be sending their children into school. I can see that that might be quite a common move in some areas, if parents can somehow manage simultaneous wfh and childcare. I wonder if the DfE/PM have considered such factors when they state that schools will be the last to close.

I suppose they'll still be providing school for those who want it.

Oh dear have a good day everyone reminds me of my dad harping on about the new seatbelt rule being an infringement as a kid. Personally and I think I’m in the majority if testing gets us out of this I’m all for it. It’ll become standard and people will adapt as they have to other similar changes 🙄

The problem with laws, as we've seen particularly with terrorism laws, is the unintended consequences which have done fuck all to do what they were supposed to in many cases but have been used against the general population.

@Oaktree55

Oh dear have a good day everyone reminds me of my dad harping on about the new seatbelt rule being an infringement as a kid. Personally and I think I’m in the majority if testing gets us out of this I’m all for it. It’ll become standard and people will adapt as they have to other similar changes 🙄

Go to Knowsley. Or Hartlepool. See if you get the same response.