Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@Ecosse

I actually think ‘lives saved’ is a spectacularly unhelpful measure of success. The NHS does not use this for any other condition- years of high quality of life is what is used for decision-making.

There is also the issue in that it does not take into account the health effect of lockdown itself- so you may have ‘saved’ an 85 year old but you now have a 40 year old pub landlord with no business, no income and no home for the DC.

Or you may have the 40 year old pub landlord dead (leaving his young children fatherless) because he couldn't access hospital treatment (Covid or non Covid). Because the hospital was full and the staff off sick (Covid, Long Covid, or PTSD).

We also need to think of the economic impact of failed containment. The damaged economy we're seeing today is the consequence of failing to deal with it for 8 to 9 months.

The countries who've taken effective containment measures all have healthier economies. The IMF has warned how it's impossible to have a well functioning economy without containment.

@Hmmph
Ah right ok.

Those poor people. Buggered either way. There's no access to hospital treatment (Covid or non Covid) with unchecked Covid spreading through society.

Full hospitals, sick staff (some ill for months with Long Covid or PTSD).

Even if they do manage to get a bed, they risk catching Covid, which is particularly deadly for cardiac patients (Cardiovascular conditions have some the highest death rates for Covid).

@BigChocFrenzy - thanks for the German stats for comparison. Those show a few percent difference. We are talking nine times as many deaths shown in those stats. The ONS table is wrong, or something else happened. (Under-reporting female Covid deaths so they count as "other" / over reporting male covid deaths that were actually "other" / more female infections (more room sharing?) / poorer treatment for conditions that didn't need to cause death. What we have with these figures though are a statistically unexplainable additional 2500-3500 deaths of elderly women.

@Perihelion

I also imagine that those Sage figures don't factor in October holiday travel. The Welsh circuit breaker starting this Friday, effectively bans nonessential travel, as well as shutting tourism and hospitality, so stops people from areas such as Liverpool and Greater Manchester ( who have their school holidays starting this weekend ) going to Wales. Economically hellish for people in nonessential businesses and work, but possibly the best time for this break to be most effective.

Has the Welsh government banned protests?

What happens if a registered campaign or political group of protestors travels from Liverpool to Wales for a protest?

What we have with these figures though are a statistically unexplainable additional 2500-3500 deaths of elderly women

Do we know how many of the original care home deaths were biased to men, ie the most severely care home male deaths already died, and haven't been replaced? So the care home population was more than 75% women, or perhaps care homes continued to send male patients to hospital in a way they didn't with women?

There's also a question if isolation perhaps impacts elderly women more than elderly men, we know isolation massively increases risk of death, we know care homes stopped visitors, is there perhaps a gender based difference there? It's certainly a trope that older men care less about seeing other people? So perhaps the lockdown caused deaths are higher in women?

None of it seems that likely as hypothesis though.

Here’s the report- see table 1>

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinprivatehomesenglandandwalesprovisional/deathsregisteredfrom28december2019to11september2020

I am not sure it is sad. I think that a lot of time people are taken to hospital and “saved” only to die shortly afterwards. If you have dementia, is it better to have that extra few weeks which will be spent in an unfamiliar place? Or a heart attack- resuscitations are brutal and can lead to other problems. Jennifer Worth (Call the Midwife author) wrote a very thought provoking book about this called “In The Midst of Life”. All about acceptance of death and not ruining people’s ends by fighting it.

I found this story very sad. A 33 year old fitness influencer Covid Denier. He's now dead. Suffered cardiac damage from Covid.

www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/influencer-dmitriy-stuzhuk-dies-from-covid-19-after-denying-its-existence-12107174

I found this story very sad. A 33 year old fitness influencer Covid Denier. He's now dead. Suffered cardiac damage from Covid.

I don't know if it really makes things particularly less sad or not, but he was almost certainly an abuser of steroids which causes considerable cardiac damage of itself, there was also reports that therapeutic steroids in rheumatic patients caused increased hospitalisation.

News from NYC's first round of random Covid testing in the public schools. Out of 10,000 results, only 18 positives.
www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/nyregion/schools-coronavirus.html

The countries who've taken effective containment measures all have healthier economies. The IMF has warned how it's impossible to have a well functioning economy without containment.

This is worth repeating again and again and again! Totally agree. I’m sure most posters on this thread would agree too, bar the occasional closed off mind.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I found this story very sad. A 33 year old fitness influencer Covid Denier. He's now dead. Suffered cardiac damage from Covid.

I don't know if it really makes things particularly less sad or not, but he was almost certainly an abuser of steroids which causes considerable cardiac damage of itself, there was also reports that therapeutic steroids in rheumatic patients caused increased hospitalisation.

Swings and roundabouts. Steroids are being used as a treatment for Covid. Which makes sense as it's an inflammatory (as well as vascular) illness.

@sirfredfredgeorge
That's interesting about NY. I expect their containment measures have paid off. After they got hit so badly in the first wave, they went hard. Restricted borders included.
Their schools only very recently started back. I believe it's been a gradual return with strict containment measures in place.

@IceCreamSummer20

The countries who've taken effective containment measures all have healthier economies. The IMF has warned how it's impossible to have a well functioning economy without containment.

This is worth repeating again and again and again! Totally agree. I’m sure most posters on this thread would agree too, bar the occasional closed off mind.

I don’t know why people insult others on this thread. There’s plenty of other threads to do that on. But anyway.

At this point our best path is to tread the line between not overwhelming hospitals and keeping economy afloat. This means using restrictions to keep to capacity but that’s it.

Only a quarter of care home residents are men. www.mha.org.uk/news/policy-influencing/facts-stats/

Still a tendency for males to have younger wives, maybe part of the reason. Also most 85 year olds are still living at home.

Schools in NY are in o way back in the way people would clamour for here. parents in most districts could choose online or F2F teaching. Most chose online. It is driving my cousin to distraction and certainly isn't sustainable as an educational model. Masks are mandatory.

@Piggywaspushed

Schools in NY are in o way back in the way people would clamour for here. parents in most districts could choose online or F2F teaching. Most chose online. It is driving my cousin to distraction and certainly isn't sustainable as an educational model. Masks are mandatory.

Piggy why does your cousin feel like that and why not sustainable?

She is having to manage too many things at once. They have families who have opted for blended learning, families who have opted for 100% F2F and families who have opted for 100% online. They hadn't done any remote learning during the main lockdown so had to hit the ground running and maintain in school learning, too. it sounds mayhem to be honest.

For reasons I can't quite understand they all hate De Blasio.

I am trying to imagine our own government doing that much mass testing in and around schools !

Of course probably also reflective of the current low levels of Covid-19 prevalence in most of New York? Do mass random testing in an area with high prevalence and you will most likely get rather different results...

Not really reflective of current NY positive rates, no. www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-updates-new-yorkers-states-progress-during-covid-19-pandemic-47 - 1.25% in the state, 4.84% on hot spots.
1.25% of 10,000 = 115 kids rejected, not 18.

*expected to be positive, not rejected..

Belgium goes into partial lockdown

Except for the minnows, they were the European nation hit the hardest in the 1st wave
(because of having the highest population density & high international connections)

So one would expect them to have a higher % immune than most other European countries -
but the main factors making the 1st wave so hard, remain for the 2nd wave.

NYC was hit so hard it hard at least one burough with ~70% antibodies, so there immunity levels are likely in a class of their own.

www.euractiv.com/section/all/short_news/brussels-belgium-goes-into-partial-lockdown/

Over the weekend, Belgium’s Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke warned of an impending ‘tsunami’ in Brussels and Wallonia.

The “tsunami” would be a situation in which “we no longer control what is happening,”

Vandenbroucke told RTL-TVi on Sunday, warning that Brussels and Wallonia are dangerously close to such a situation.

One NYC borough had a high seroprevalence, but NYC has less than 14% seroprevalence in the state overall according to recent research, that is not enough to make a concrete difference without other measures, particularly social distancing. (It's only a tiny amount above London!)
www.obgproject.com/2020/08/30/sars-cov-2-antibody-testing-among-nyc-healthcare-personnel-how-many-are-seropositive/

Interesting that Belgium and Spain are not prohibiting home visits even in the highest risk areas. The U.K. most have some of the most draconian restrictions in the world in that regard.

New questions on the ONS COVID survey

Have you been vaccinated?
How many hours on average per day in the last week have you spent within 2m of a member of your household?
How many times have you been inside another home in the past week?
How many times in the past week has someone been inside your home who is not part of your household?
How many times have you left your home for social purposes?

[quote MRex]One NYC borough had a high seroprevalence, but NYC has less than 14% seroprevalence in the state overall according to recent research, that is not enough to make a concrete difference without other measures, particularly social distancing. (It's only a tiny amount above London!)
www.obgproject.com/2020/08/30/sars-cov-2-antibody-testing-among-nyc-healthcare-personnel-how-many-are-seropositive/[/quote]
....
What data do we have on % London school positives ?
I only know of Eton testing everyone and they are hardly representative

Sadly the LSHTM study looks to be the first serology study of any UK schools

(yes, I know Eton is in Windsor ! They are just the only school I heard that are doing regular tests of all)