Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@Hmmph - Your statements apply as much to the men as to the women. I can easily support many forms of euthanasia and also people's right to a planned peaceful death in the event of living wills. What we have here though are care home residents (who may not have dementia), where without explanation a drastically higher proportion of women have died than men, far higher than the proportion of residents. I suspect it is either under-reporting Covid deaths in women, or lack of effective treatment for other illnesses, where the same did not occur with the men. I'm not fussed if it's a death recording issue but it's a very VERY big human rights issue if women have not been getting the same care as men. I have no idea what to do with those thoughts.

@Whydoyouthinkthatthen
Do they mean the flu vaccination?

I was doing a study for UCL. Questionnaire sent by email once a week during the lockdown. I think they were changing it to monthly but haven't heard anything for a while. Not sure if I've been dropped from the study, it's an issue with my emails, or perhaps their funding to run the study ended.

Why Is that vaccination flu, or are they giving a list ?
BCG has been mentioned as possibly protective - international studies ongoing - but few people likely to have had that recently

No, vaccinated against COVID. The survey lasts a year so presumably they think there may be a vaccine in that timeframe??

In regards to Wales having a circuit breaker lockdown. What’s the point if England aren’t also following suit? From what I’ve read lots of people on the borders cross into Wales/England for work and vice versa.

[quote MRex]@Hmmph - Your statements apply as much to the men as to the women. I can easily support many forms of euthanasia and also people's right to a planned peaceful death in the event of living wills. What we have here though are care home residents (who may not have dementia), where without explanation a drastically higher proportion of women have died than men, far higher than the proportion of residents. I suspect it is either under-reporting Covid deaths in women, or lack of effective treatment for other illnesses, where the same did not occur with the men. I'm not fussed if it's a death recording issue but it's a very VERY big human rights issue if women have not been getting the same care as men. I have no idea what to do with those thoughts.[/quote]
...
I agree it is very concerning as a possible human rights issue

I hope this anomaly was flagged and that the responsible authorities are investigating the causes

Did Elton release the results of their testing?

Re Wales
Firstly, no UK PM can dismiss the leader of a devolved nation. It is constitutionally impossible.
Secondly, in terms of the Welsh Govt approach, a key issue is that Wales has lower numbers of Intensive care beds per head of population than England. Therefore, intervention to manage NHS capacity needs to happen generally sooner than in England. Also, the hospitals / health boards seeing the most acute challenges thus far this autumn are those in the most deprived areas which experienced the highest excess death rates during the spring.
Thirdly, many LAs were already having a two week half-term to offset the 1 week extension to the summer term.
Fourthly, approx 2 million Welsh people I.e. 2/3 of the population, have been in some form of local lockdown since September but case rates have not decreased sufficiently to lift those restrictions.

Possible explanation of NI's high cases in the 2nd wave, which has led to current lockdown there:

https://theconversation.com/northern-irelands-circuit-breaker-lockdown-why-now-and-will-it-work-148216

A quirk of Northern Ireland’s small size is that students can easily visit home on a regular basis,
and a large proportion of students visit their family every weekend.

Many also have weekend jobs,
meaning they are regularly coming into contact with multiple groups of people.

The opening of universities therefore has made the country a lot more connected – which may partly explain why cases have increased dramatically since courses began in September.

A very interesting article about the actual situation in GM hospitals.
Not about data per se but the secrecy around it
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/secrecy-spin-surrounding-greater-manchesters-19131905.amp?__twitter_impression=true

"intervention to manage NHS capacity needs to happen generally sooner than in England"

and also, intervention needs to be earlier in England / UK than in some countries on the continent with much higher ICU provision

The secrecy around the hospital situation is disturbing. We talk about the right to protest. Transparency about the hospital situation is equally vital in upholding democracy.

With all the focus on Manchester, I was wondering earlier today about the NE? Too often neglected (a problem long before the pandemic).

We really (urgently) need a national approach. The division is a convenient distraction for the government's failings including with test, track, and trace, but also it's contributing towards the situation spiralling out of control. People live and work (and protest) across borders. Regional restrictions are unfair but also impractical.

@blodynmawr

If parliament voted to sack Mark Drakeford, he’d be gone immediately. The United Kingdom Parliament is sovereign. They could abolish the whole welsh executive if they wanted.

I don't think there have been sufficiently broad seroprevalence studies, this site usually cites anything major and doesn't have anything: www.rcpch.ac.uk/resources/covid-19-research-evidence-summaries.

Then the UK Parliament would be dictatorial
They have the power to send in the army into any of the 3 devolved nations if they want; doesn't mean it's a good idea

Would you be so keen on abolishing a devolved parliament that had fewer restrictions than England ?

With BJ out of his depth and U-turning, with the 4 nations on different timing, that could easily happen

The UK government cannot vote to simply remove the Welsh executive for making laws within it's own remit, they would lose all demcratic credibility. I'd also be on one of the protest marches @SheepandCow gets so irate about (in a mask, distanced, with millions of others).

@BigChocFrenzy

The reason I would remove Mark Drakeford is his decision to close schools. He is failing to provide a basic public service.

He should be free to set his own restrictions other than that. But the U.K. government would certainly not be subsiding his lockdown if I were in charge.

It should be up to Welsh taxpayers to pay for it if that’s what Drakeford wants to do. England cannot afford another lockdown.

@SeekingAnswers3
My thoughts entirely. I come from the border area, grew up on one side and went to school, and later worked, on the other. There is significant cross border travel and even during the mini lockdown there will continue to be. It might help Wales a bit in the short term but as long as numbers are higher in England they’ll just shoot back up.
As other has mentioned however the NHS in wales is in dire straits and has fewer itu beds per capita than in England which will be part of the reason for it. Effect will be very short lived at best.

The increase in support for authoritarianism is one of the most worrying aspects of this crisis,
both from some who want stricter rules and some who want more relaxed rules

"Winning" by force instead of consent could break the UK more seriously than either Covid or the economic crisis

@MRex
I'll forgive you as long as it's a Welsh dragon mask. Very handsome fellow. Even better if you march outside the country residences of Westminster MPs (as opposed to their London workplace, which has less personal meaning to them).

Mark Drakeford won't be able to keep schools open if Covid keeps on spreading and teachers and other staff continue to get ill.

Proper containment measures are the fastest way back to fully functioning schools.

"The reason I would remove Mark Drakeford is his decision to close schools. He is failing to provide a basic public service."

So BJ should be removed for closing schools for 6 months ?
and then for not investing to make them as safe as possible ?

What about for not providing sufficient NHS capacity to continue Covid & non-Covid work adequately,
increasing the pressure for lockdowns ?

For failing to provide an effect track & trace system ? - a basic public service at the moment
Failure to provide testing ?

I can't stand BJ, but he is a democratically elected leader, as is Drakeford

Only the electorate should remove them (or their own party, since we vote for an MP or Assembly Member)

@SheepandCow

Mark Drakeford won't be able to keep schools open if Covid keeps on spreading and teachers and other staff continue to get ill.

Proper containment measures are the fastest way back to fully functioning schools.

That was in reply to @ecosse

@MRex

The UK government cannot vote to simply remove the Welsh executive for making laws within it's own remit, they would lose all demcratic credibility. I'd also be on one of the protest marches *@SheepandCow* gets so irate about (in a mask, distanced, with millions of others).

... I'd join you, if I could get a flight from Germany in time !

Back to stats and English regional positives provided by COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

New cases reported today:

North West: 5217
Yorkshire and The Humber: 2699
East Midlands: 1952
London: 1945
West Midlands: 1383
South East: 1051
East of England: 719
North East: 707
South West: 523

Still the obvious concern for the NW, with much lower levels in the South and East of England