Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@RedToothBrush - theoretically yes to "it's possible for men to be more at risk but for more women to be dying", but you can do the actual maths just as well as I can and these numbers don't work unless far more women have been infected in care homes for some reason.

Covid should not be used as an excuse for authoritarianism,
whether that is removing the right to peacefully demonstrate with SD,
or removing a democratically elected devolved government

Retaining democracy is more important than Covid

I can't get behind WaPo paywall

Could someone post the stats they have for men & women dying
and do they just give US stats ?

We need a series of strict two week lockdowns. (2 weeks because of the transmission period).
The frequency depends on this years flu/respiratory illness numbers heading for hospital. It is the ONLY way to ensure sufficient beds and staff to treat EVERYONE needing a hospital with whatever illness.

I am not sure I agree.

Of course, if we think that hospitals may run out of capacity, we will have to take drastic measures but I would question whether the series of two week lockdowns is the most appropriate and sustainable solution.

It looks like Spain might have been able to (sort of) flatten the curve with local measures which may be less damaging for the economy. If it is indeed the case, we should learn from their experience instead of rushing to press the nuclear button.

Deaths in private homes for males from ischaemic heart diseases increased by 25.9% in England

Well yes. Grandad had a heart attack and went into hospital as an emergency, great. However, couldn't be operated on due to Covid, wasn't looked after properly, due to Covid. Sent home with bed sores, no special bed, no oxygen treatment, no community follow up. Three days later Red Cross, Help the Aged, and Hospice at Home, all fantastic charities, had provided him with everything he needed, the next day he died in his chair whilst getting dressed. I am sure there were a lot like him.

Would it help to start a separate thread to discuss the rights and wrongs of 2 or 3 week short lockdowns, or health policy in devolved nations, away from the numbers thread?

German stats appear to show more women aged 90+ than men dying and a higher % at 80+ than for younger ages.

However, this makes more sense when weighting the numbers according to the much higher % of women alive

The number of men in the 95+ age group is distorted more by WW2 military casualties in Germany than in other countries, but the effect is probably there in former Allied countries too

In fact, looking at the case numbers early last week, I was starting to believe that the circuit breaker is our only option.

When I look at the trend now, I am slightly more optimistic.

Would it help to start a separate thread to discuss the rights and wrongs of 2 or 3 week short lockdowns, or health policy in devolved nations, away from the numbers thread?

The rights and wrongs of 2 or 3 week lockdowns do primarily depend on the numbers (e.g. hospital capacity, current R rate, etc). I do not see how you can separate the two topics. My personal view is that the most recent trend in England has substantially weakened the arguments in favour of a circuit breaker.

I agree re protesting although it's hugely irritating but I can't square allowing protests in exceptional circumstances like a respitory virus pandemic, and women being forced to give birth alone with one partner?
Seems utterly barbaric to me.

Welsh firebreak could save almost 1,000 lives by Christmas, advisers' report suggests
The Welsh government has now published a paper from its technical advisory cell (its version of Sage) showing the modelling that led ministers to introduce the short firebreak lockdown. (Earlier I posted a link to another TAC document - see 1.13pm - but that was not the relevant one.) The correct link is here (pdf).
The report includes this chart suggesting that a two-week firebreak could save almost 1,000 lives by Christmas. But, over the longer terms, fewer lives would be saved, the model suggests, because the death rate would fall more gradually than under the “no change” option. This model assumes that, after the firebreak, the R number returns to its previous level.

Modelling for impact of a 2 or 3-week firebreak in Wales Photograph: Welsh government
The report says, after the firebreak, further measures should be introduced to keep the R number down. It says:

That 1000 figure seems grossly overestimated to me. There have only been 1700 deaths overall from COVID in Wales so they’re effectively saying that a 2 week lockdown will prevent a more than 50% increase in deaths.

I suspect what they are actually comparing is doing nothing v a ‘circuit breaker’.

This didn't copy over

If anyone should be removed from office it is the government who 1. Ignored advice to stockpile PPE 2. locked down too late and reopened too slowly 3. refuse to allow mask wearing in schools 4. flout the rules themselves and dont fire their advisors when they do so

Children are not getting a good education at present because it's constantly being disrupted. If a circuit breaker - wIth online teaching the second week - breaks that cycle it will be well worth it. That is, of course, ignoring the possible benefits of continuing to have healthy parents instead of parents disabled by long covid.

Those who wish to see normal health continue need a circuit breaker. Those who wish to see education continue in schools should be pressurising the government to allow - and promote masks, at least for older students.

That 1000 figure seems grossly overestimated to me

Well the paper is contradictory, it claims that value is

The table and graph below shows the effect on deaths with a current Rt at 1.4

But earlier in the document
current estimated value from PHW 1.20 (95 % confidence interval
1.17 – 1.23)

So they're using different values for "deaths saved" than they actually believe the current rate is. They note that the faster it's growing, the more impact a firebreak has, so we'd expect less impact even with their worst case model. Why they are modelling with different values to they believe is odd.

I also imagine that those Sage figures don't factor in October holiday travel.
The Welsh circuit breaker starting this Friday, effectively bans nonessential travel, as well as shutting tourism and hospitality, so stops people from areas such as Liverpool and Greater Manchester ( who have their school holidays starting this weekend ) going to Wales. Economically hellish for people in nonessential businesses and work, but possibly the best time for this break to be most effective.

A role of schools in transmission study about to begin:

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1318234172310376448

I actually think ‘lives saved’ is a spectacularly unhelpful measure of success. The NHS does not use this for any other condition- years of high quality of life is what is used for decision-making.

There is also the issue in that it does not take into account the health effect of lockdown itself- so you may have ‘saved’ an 85 year old but you now have a 40 year old pub landlord with no business, no income and no home for the DC.

@Ecosse

I actually think ‘lives saved’ is a spectacularly unhelpful measure of success. The NHS does not use this for any other condition- years of high quality of life is what is used for decision-making.

There is also the issue in that it does not take into account the health effect of lockdown itself- so you may have ‘saved’ an 85 year old but you now have a 40 year old pub landlord with no business, no income and no home for the DC.

Agree. But numbers on hospital capacity is surely a better measure.

Absolutely @MarshaBradyo. We cannot and should not be trying to prevent every COVID death. We do not do it for any other health condition and the adverse costs on health and the economy are too high.

We should be focusing on ensuring hospital capacity is not overwhelmed. The government should have spent the summer improving track and trace and increasing hospital capacity. This does not seem to have happened.

@TheSunIsStillShining

Today's 18,804 is not good. Mondays usually are significantly lower

IIRC Scottish government had stated that there was a national processing issue which might lead to higher figures on monday/Tuesday so might not be too concerning. However UK denied this so who knows!

@Ecosse

Absolutely *@MarshaBradyo*. We cannot and should not be trying to prevent every COVID death. We do not do it for any other health condition and the adverse costs on health and the economy are too high.

We should be focusing on ensuring hospital capacity is not overwhelmed. The government should have spent the summer improving track and trace and increasing hospital capacity. This does not seem to have happened.

Absolutely true. The numbers we need to be watching closely are the hospital admissions and ITU percentages. Not the deaths.

I haven't been able to catch up yet.

Just noticed some posts re heart attack/cardiac related deaths at home during the first wave.

Covid is known to trigger heart damage and heart attacks. I strongly suspect a fair few of those deaths were directly caused by Covid.

Related to my previous post. One form of Long Covid is heart damage. I suspect we'll building up future problems wrt increased cardiac patients.

A role of schools in transmission study about to begin: mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1318234172310376448

Well I suppose better late than never, but what a shame they didn't get this started at the beginning of Sept. I wonder if this is going to report in time to actually be of any practical benefit to decision making. But better than nothing for sure.

Sheepandcow- they said on Radio 4 news at 6 that the increased number dying at home of heart attacks and dementia was roughly the same as the decrease in those dying in hospital from them. Therefore the assumption was it was the same people dying in a different place rather than an overall increase.

(And IMO my not be a bad thing. I would certainly prefer death at home over death in hospital)