Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Mark Drakeford should look himself in the mirror and admit he has failed these D.C. Either he should resign or Johnson should sack him.

What a load of nonsense! What is failing the students is the hokey cokey in and out system. Some kids have lost 4 weeks already due to isolating and theres no online provision as teachers are in with the rest of the class.

The usual chart from RP131 on Twitter, still looking reasonably flat to me by specimen date. Depends on how many test results there are to add to the earliest day of the "lag period".

@MRex

By the way, it's 75% of the care home population who are women. It doesn't add up.

No. We were told men are more at risk & I totally agree something isn't adding up looking at the figures.

i'm intrigued how there is a tests progressed figure of 306, 893 on the 19th October given that it is still the 19th October. Usually I think the data figure only goes up to the previous day which would make sense.

Perhaps it is an estimate. Or made up!

"Deaths in private homes for females from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease increased by 75.0% in England and 92.2% in Wales compared with the five-year average, "

Those able to keep their elderly relatives home may do so, after the high deaths in care homes in the 1st peak

@TheSunIsStillShining

Today's 18,804 is not good. Mondays usually are significantly lower

well last monday the figure was 13,972. Highest numbers of the week are often on tuesdays, especially for deaths.

I know the deaths lagging data has usually been because care homes don't report on weekends and not all hospitals do.
But with apparently 312k tests processed on saturday (the most ever) and a similar amount on sunday I'm not sure why there really should be a weekend lag on cases data? Anyone know?

Its possible for men to be more at risk but for more women to be dying.

It depends on how you do the stats.

Men can be more likely to die if they are over 80 and catch covid. But because there are lots more women over 80 you might see more women dying.

Eg men over 80 have say a 25 % chance of dying but women have a 15% chance of dying.

You have 100 men over 80 so thats 25 who die, but you have 200 women so that 30 who die.

It still means men are more at risk, its just you have more women in that age group who could die.

“Iwasaki’s work indicates the T-cell response of men in their 30s and 40s is equivalent to that of a woman in her 90s”

From an interesting article on “Why the coronavirus is killing more men than women”. Covering sex differences in COVID19 outcome from genetics, immunology & behaviour. ”
<a class="break-all" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/10/17/coronavirus-men-immune-system/#click=t.co/M3bbcfFFYw" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/10/17/coronavirus-men-immune-system/#click=t.co/M3bbcfFFYw

How come on the government site it has had the patients in hospital as 5608 and 592 in ventilator beds for the last 2 days or is this the wrong page?

We had a 3 month lockdown earlier this year and look where we are now. It simply pushes the can down the road. If they are right about vaccinations starting by the end of the year isn't it worth kicking it down the road? If a circuit breaker slows things down so we can cope for another 2 or 3 months then surely that has to be a good thing?

@IloveJKRowling

Some great investigative reporting from Emma Gill here (thanks *@RedToothBrush* for alerting me to her work in another thread). Data on schools closed in Manchester. From the article "Schools and councils aren't publishing this information, with the exception of Wigan Council"

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/schools-confirmed-covid-cases-greater-19116555

There's a link to the Wigan council report in the article and I have to say I wish all councils did this as it would be so useful. They report 53 closures. They don't say what proportion that is of total schools in Wigan, though.

I follow that thread as am in GM with kids at school! I know lots of schools with positive cases which haven't made that list. At a very rough guess I would say almost all schools in GM (as in Liverpool) have been affected this half term but that varies from literally one child tests positive and noone else sent home to at least 3 or 4 incidences of the whole school having to shut down for a few days (mostly due to staffing).

Teacher friends tell me the biggest issue is teachers having to stay at home to look after their self isolating children, not necessarily self isolating teachers (though there's plenty of those too)

I think it's an absolute disgrace that this information isn't collated centrally.

Mark Drakeford is the First Minister elected by the people of Wales
Covid should not be a reason to smash local democratic rights won by the devolved nations

It would be outrageous and unconstitutional for the PM to remove him because of having a different policy, whether more cautious or more risky
(so long as that policy does not break UK or international law)

Drakeford and his party know they have to face the electorate later, which would constrain them against strategies that don't have a reasonable amount of public support

That's without going into Boris Johnsons
failings and u turns.

@BigChocFrenzy

If a devolved leader is preventing DC from attending school, I think it’s absolutely in the national interest for BJ to remove them.

Another way to do it may be to force him out by withholding all subsidy from Westminster until he resigns and schools are opened.

Usually I think the data figure only goes up to the previous day which would make sense.

No, outside of weekend days, numbers of processed tests do get announced on the same day and they represent tests corresponding to positive cases. In other words, 18,804 positives reported today relate to 306,893 processed tests.

FWIW, I think the numbers are not looking too bad. We are still seeing a slow increase but it is a very different picture from what we saw 2 weeks ago.

At a very rough guess I would say almost all schools in GM (as in Liverpool) have been affected this half term but that varies from literally one child tests positive and noone else sent home

How can no-one else be sent home? I thought at least close contacts were supposed to isolate....

Yes, it's appalling that the weekly update Wigan provide isn't done for all councils. It would be so useful (recommend clicking through to their report - it gives analysis of a lot of other data at the local level, including the success of their local contact tracing, not just schools - in fact schools are the last item) .

[quote Ecosse]@BigChocFrenzy

If a devolved leader is preventing DC from attending school, I think it’s absolutely in the national interest for BJ to remove them.

Another way to do it may be to force him out by withholding all subsidy from Westminster until he resigns and schools are opened.[/quote]
He's said Primary schools will reopen after half term as will years 7 and 8. Obviously these are reopening for childcare reasons but I can't see what the issue is? The other ages are in the reported 'increase' age range.

On a different note. Germany is to invest 500 million Euros in improving ventilation in public buildings - including schools.

Northern Ireland have a circuitbreaker lockdown - I hope noone is advocating sacking the NI government for this and probably restarting the Troubles

[quote Ecosse]@BigChocFrenzy

If a devolved leader is preventing DC from attending school, I think it’s absolutely in the national interest for BJ to remove them.

Another way to do it may be to force him out by withholding all subsidy from Westminster until he resigns and schools are opened.[/quote]
.....
Fortunately even BJ isn't so stupid and authoritarian as to topple devolved governments in this

Covid is no excuse for fascism

If a devolved leader is preventing DC from attending school, I think it’s absolutely in the national interest for BJ to remove them.
Another way to do it may be to force him out by withholding all subsidy from Westminster until he resigns and schools are opened.

This is wrong on so many levels.

1. what @BigChocFrenzy said
2. we are seeing how wrestling over money is helping the situation in GM.
3. withholding money: how is that not shutting down the devolved system?
4. preventing children from going to school is a very emotional sentence. He is not preventing. He is applying a measure that is suggested by scientists to start reducing the numbers of covid patients.
5. NAtional interest is not have part of the country letting covid rampage through the populus. That is the opposite of national interest. Unless there is a hard border that doesn't let ppl in/out of that region. Which there is not.

children are in school for ~12-13 years of their lives. The curriculum is not too crowded or much. They will have time to catch up. I'd rather have relevant people working in education focus on how to get these kids to catch up in a year or 2 time.... (besides focusing on the ones in need and not putting the majority at risk)

The Dfe must have the means for collating and issuing much more extensive national statistics at least weekly

It is very surprising they don't appear to want this information,
as it would help decision-making

There is bound to be debate at this high level of cases, as to how much f2f education children are actually receiving

For me, it is not about which policy on schools is correct, but about democracy and in this case, devolved democracy

I would say the same if the disagreement was because the Welsh First Minister was keeping schools open after English schools were closed

@BigChocFrenzy because no one needs to suggest that - they choose not to turn up 😂www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/11/northern-ireland-assembly-reopens-three-years-after-collapse

Thank god for someone with Logic AncientGran this is EXACTLY what we should be doing. ! Kick that can until

1. The normal 'NHS on its knees' season of respiratory illnesses has passed.

1. The weather improves and people can meet outside where the spread of infection diminishes.

1. There is a vaccine . /Better more effective treatment.

We need a series of strict two week lockdowns. (2 weeks because of the transmission period)
The frequency depends on this years flu/respiratory illness numbers heading for hospital. It is the ONLY way to ensure sufficient beds and staff to treat EVERYONE needing a hospital with whatever illness.

[quote lurker101]@BigChocFrenzy because no one needs to suggest that - they choose not to turn up 😂www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/11/northern-ireland-assembly-reopens-three-years-after-collapse[/quote]
...
but that was their own shenanigans

Totally different if Westminster closes down a devolved government that has the votes to carry out its Covid policy