Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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It’s certainly beyond me why shielding has not been reintroduced on a voluntary and funded basis. It’s utter madness expecting vulnerable people to go to work and school as normal.

Those who are clinically vulnerable should absolutely be offered the opportunity to re-shield on full pay if they cannot work from home. That would go a long way to reducing hospital admissions.

@EmMac7

This thread ought to renamed the school chatter thread. Not much data, lots and lots of talk about school closures.

Couldn't agree more.

Refusal to move to a schools thread because those discussions get hijacked. Oh the irony.

Ok Feeling swing it back to data. Feel free to add some.

[quote Ecosse]@RedToothBrush

If a ‘circuit breaker’ was going to actually going to change anything, that would be correct. But it is simply a lockdown under another name.

We had a 3 month lockdown earlier this year and look where we are now. It simply pushes the can down the road.

What we need to have is an effective and working test and trace system.[/quote]
The government have more or less decided that track and trace has failed and isnt viable in terms of the targets it needs to achieve.

See the above link to the Conservative Home article.

We are in a situation where it doesn't matter what weve done previously. The fact still stays the same that we have a problem as it stands that we cant go back in a time machine and fix.

We now (apparently) have an issue about getting to a point where mass testing is the way to control the virus until we get to the point where there is a vaccine.

So yes its questionable about how well the time we locked down originally was spent.

Still doesn't change our current predictament though.

I should add that wales is using a localised track and trace which is considerably better than the english system.

But even that isnt solving the problem.

Wales problem is more a case of having such a low number of hospital beds and having areas where hospitals are more remote than other places in the uk so moving patients / sharing facilities is not an option.

Thats cos of things like Welsh Mountains which im not sure Mark Drakford has much of a way of getting around other than slowly.

What is the funding situation in Wales?

Is it more loans for businesses. Just heard guy in R4 talking about £10k lost in bookings. So hard.

Interesting report on the increase in deaths in private homes from the ONS, suggesting a relocation of Non-COVID deaths out of hospitals and care homes.

Some key points:

In England, the number of deaths in private homes registered between 28 December 2019 and 11 September 2020 was 108,842; this was 25,472 deaths more than the five-year average.

In Wales, the number of deaths in private homes registered between 28 December 2019 and 11 September 2020 was 7,440; this was 1,624 deaths more than the five-year average.

Excess deaths in private homes mostly did not involve COVID-19.
Deaths in private homes and care homes for the leading causes of death in hospitals and hospices were below the five-year average, suggesting a re-distribution of deaths between locations.

Deaths in private homes for males from ischaemic heart diseases increased by 25.9% in England and 22.7% in Wales compared with the five-year average, while deaths in hospitals decreased by 22.4% and 29.3% respectively.

Deaths in private homes for females from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease increased by 75.0% in England and 92.2% in Wales compared with the five-year average, larger than the increase across all settings (21.7% and 19.3% respectively); deaths in hospitals decreased by 40.6% in England and 25.5% in Wales, and deaths in care homes increased by 32.0% and 28.6% respectively.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinprivatehomesenglandandwalesprovisional/deathsregisteredfrom28december2019to11september2020

Liverpool daily figures

Report published 19th October 2020
Cases data from week 10th-16th October 2020
Data extracted covering testing up to 16th October 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 2825, a decrease of 618 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 567.2 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 19.4%.

Positivity rate has gone up slightly over the weekend but not by much. That looks like a stabilising. It needs to start showing signs of actively making a sustained decline though.

This is the bit im now more interested in and concerned about:

Between 10 - 16 October 2020 there were 169 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 26% (n=44) were Covid-19 deaths.

Thats increasing. At the end of last week it was 23%. At the end of the previous it was 20%.

I think this is the thing to keep an eye on.

Data on school closures is data.

Or is some data more equal than others?

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/dire-situation-hit-liverpool-within-19107437

"Yesterday the city's chief education officer said 21,619 pupils and 1,294 staff had been forced to isolate since schools returned at the beginning of September, with 878 positive cases reported among staff and students at primary and secondary schools across the city."

Analysis of what this data means for the disruption to education of the children supposedly in school "full time" is very relevant.

I think also data gaps are important - we only know this data because the chief education officer spoke up. Why don't we know the same for all areas? Why isn't this published by Local Authorities?

@MarshaBradyo

Ok Feeling swing it back to data. Feel free to add some.

Thanks for the snarky reply.

When I feel a bit stronger i'll try to dig out statistics on additional avoidable deaths from cancer for those of us whose diagnostic tests and surgery have been and continued to be affected by increasing hospital admissions. Does that meet with your approval?

The ONS deaths show in table 1 that less men died but lots more women, can that be right???
Males care home +333, private home +4,323, hospice -579, hospital -4,148
Females care home +5,007, private home +4,364, hospice -428, hospital -4,976.

More women are elderly.

Feeling do you feel your post having a go was constructive?

Just join in with data if that’s your preference.

@MRex
The difference in the care home figures there is extreme.
Do more females go in to care homes than males?

@MRex
Could it be that woman tend to live longer and skew stats?

More women have always been elderly, they should still be dying proportionally. I thought we had been told that men were more at risk than women.

In other data news:

18804 cases today
80 deaths

306k PCR tests

Today's 18,804 is not good. Mondays usually are significantly lower

tests have been over 300,000 a day for 4 days in a row which is good. Government's target of 500,000 looking doubtful though IMO.

By the way, it's 75% of the care home population who are women. It doesn't add up.

Some great investigative reporting from Emma Gill here (thanks @RedToothBrush for alerting me to her work in another thread). Data on schools closed in Manchester. From the article "Schools and councils aren't publishing this information, with the exception of Wigan Council"

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/schools-confirmed-covid-cases-greater-19116555

There's a link to the Wigan council report in the article and I have to say I wish all councils did this as it would be so useful. They report 53 closures. They don't say what proportion that is of total schools in Wigan, though.

Has anyone looked at processed test fluctuation? I wonder if there is a pattern of working discernible from it. Haven't looked yet, but if someone has I won't bother.

[quote alreadytaken]@BigChocFrenzy this gym is declaring itself a church of the healthy body www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/polish-gym-dubs-itself-a-church-to-bypass-coronavirus-rules[/quote]
.....
🤣👏🏽

@FeelingBlueAgain

Treatments haven’t just been cancelled due to increased admissions. Many nurses were twiddling their thumbs during lockdown.

For checking individual schools this could be interesting:

opencheck.atomwide.com/default.aspx

Although because it's not mandatory to participate it is of very limited use