Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

I don’t think it’s acceptable at all for Wales to be closing schools to pupils due to sit exams in 6 months. D.C. need to be in school, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

The life chances and life expectancy of those DC will be damaged as a result of this. If I were BJ, I’d be removing Mark Drakeford from office for failing to provide basic public services.

Closing schools should absolutely be seen as a failure and it should be a resignation matter.

@MRex

So shafting those taking exams next year. No, so taking those most likely to be infected and infectious out of school, while maintaining education for those who are least likely to be infected or infectious.

this, exactly this.

@Ecosse

I don’t think it’s acceptable at all for Wales to be closing schools to pupils due to sit exams in 6 months. D.C. need to be in school, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

The life chances and life expectancy of those DC will be damaged as a result of this. If I were BJ, I’d be removing Mark Drakeford from office for failing to provide basic public services.

Closing schools should absolutely be seen as a failure and it should be a resignation matter.

But are they actually closing schools or are they doing distance/online learning?

@Reastie

Remote learning is all very well for middle class DC with supportive parents and access to internet, laptop and resources at home.

Not so much for the DC stuck in a tiny flat with 4 siblings with no laptop and no space to work.

All DC need to be in school and Mark Drakeford has failed in his duty to ensure this happens. BJ should sack him.

@Ecosse

I don’t think it’s acceptable at all for Wales to be closing schools to pupils due to sit exams in 6 months. D.C. need to be in school, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

The life chances and life expectancy of those DC will be damaged as a result of this. If I were BJ, I’d be removing Mark Drakeford from office for failing to provide basic public services.

Closing schools should absolutely be seen as a failure and it should be a resignation matter.

What do you think is happening on a localised basis is schools are forced to shut due to a sheer number of cases?

Is it not better to shut now everywhere, to keep figures down to prevent schools shutting due to positive cases (which i might add is tending to happen in the most deprieved areas anyway)?

I think in terms of what is fairer to children in deprived communities im not sure a circuit breaker disadvantages them more than the potential alternative anyway.

Just hypothetically (or musing)
Statement is many times: Don't close schools...
Why don't people say Make schools safe?

There are a lot of things that could be done, but again the communication is about 0/1.
I'd advocate for -in normal secondary:

• blended learning for ECV/students/schools that proved themselves and/or are not exam year (If nothing else, like Germany: pair ECV teachers/students)
• proper masks all around by EVERYONE. No medical exemptions, nothing. It has been proven around the world that there are really only quite a few medical condition that really limit this in general public*. Not a scarf around your mouth with your nose out
• space kids in school out
• reorg a bit the timetable (I feel sorry for HT just even suggesting this) so that there is enough time to ventilate/air out the rooms

-subpoint to this: if nothing else have a mobile fan (5 quid) in every room to help with airing out circulation. There are some quite spectaculous studies showing where to put it to be most effective...

• drop classes that require masks to be off or come up with ideas on how to have a work around. Eg: don't take kids swimming or have indoor PE. They will learn how to swim next year. Or the year after.
• kids with positive tests should only be allowed back in after a neg tests
• it should be mandatory for parents to notify school of a + test (or rather for PHE to notify school)
• have Plan B and C for certain variations (x infections, deep clean needed, too many isolating staff.... ) and these should be available for the parents so they know what to expect in case X/Y/Z threshold is reached.

Yes, I know this will not solve the edge cases and we need to be inclusive, but on the other hand: this would make 70-90% of ordinary schools safer.

Gov and schools had months to figure this out. And yet they continue as if everything is alright. (having masks on in corridors is not a real safety measure. It's a farcical "see, I did something" thing)

*pls. let's not start a debate on this, there are million threads about it, but mostly bottom line is that english feel entitled to not wear masks in the middle of an airborne pandemic and there is little initiative to actually solve a problem rather than whinge about it.

This thread ought to renamed the school chatter thread. Not much data, lots and lots of talk about school closures.

thesun

What I find laughable is the number of primaries that have allowed staff to wear visors.

But not masks.

[quote Ecosse]@Reastie

Remote learning is all very well for middle class DC with supportive parents and access to internet, laptop and resources at home.

Not so much for the DC stuck in a tiny flat with 4 siblings with no laptop and no space to work.

All DC need to be in school and Mark Drakeford has failed in his duty to ensure this happens. BJ should sack him.[/quote]
Or alternatively he could be congratulated on decisive action which could save lives?

The Welsh provision of laptops for kids with no device has apparently been relatively good.

Mark Drakeford has failed in his duty to ensure this happens. BJ should sack him.

I don’t think Johnson has the power to sack him. Education is a devolved issue - it is up to the welsh assembly (led by Drakeford) to decide the appropriate action wrt schools.

@herecomesthsun

What about the reduced life chances and therefore reduced life expectancy that disadvantaged DC will face from not reviving education?

Do those lost years of life not matter because they are not COVID deaths?

What I don't understand is why issues with cases in schools isn't being investigated more.

My eldests school for example.
SEN primary school.
Shut on Friday afternoon under PHE advice.
At that point there had 6 positive cases in 4 bubbles.

Text has been sent out this morning saying 4 more staff have tested positive. What they haven't mentioned is the 3 DC that have tested positive that I'm aware of!
So with outbreaks like this in schools, why are parents not being asked for their children to be tested so they can see how far this has spread? Surely they need the information to know.

The aim is to reopen after half term. I think they're going to need a couple of weeks before they can even plan reopening - which takes us to the end of Half term. That's only if none of the 10 teaching staff are unwell then as no way can they function normally if they have that amount of teaching staff off.

@ChloeCrocodile

Normally I would agree that Westminster should not intervene in devolved affairs. But when you have a first minister preventing DC from going to school, BJ must intervene.

Wales already has one of the poorest education systems in Europe with some of the worst rates of social mobility in the U.K. Closing schools to pupils who will be sitting life-defining exams in 6 months is totally unacceptable.

Mark Drakeford should look himself in the mirror and admit he has failed these D.C. Either he should resign or Johnson should sack him.

Matt Hancock is making a statement at 4:30 today.

[quote Ecosse]@Reastie

Remote learning is all very well for middle class DC with supportive parents and access to internet, laptop and resources at home.

Not so much for the DC stuck in a tiny flat with 4 siblings with no laptop and no space to work.

All DC need to be in school and Mark Drakeford has failed in his duty to ensure this happens. BJ should sack him.[/quote]
I don't agree with your approach.
I think focusing on a minority and making the majority comply is wrong. (It is happening world wide with many issues, but that doesn't make it right)

Schools had month to gather evidence per pupil on who was struggling. (The fact that Dfe is not doing it's job as an umbrella/coordination service is appalling.) Teachers know this. Create a framework where local people (teachers, parents, ss) can work together to solve these issues.
If there are 4 children in a class of 25 who are in the "4 siblings with no laptop and no space to work" situation that doesn't mean that we should usher back 21 kids and potentially risk them being infected (and taking it home, etc) just because locally they can't deal with 4 kids.

Where numbers are higher more measures are needed.

I think parents and teacher unions are just as much to blame as gov in this case. No real standing up for what the solution should be together at the end of june. Same as with GM. People let one idiot (in a good way) take on the fight. If s/he wins "they have been backing him/her all along", if doesn't win, they can walk away blameless.

As a society UK has proven that there is no "blitz spirit" or even the need to work together and solve things and that we need a nanny state to tell ppl what is wrong/right.

sorry, but I'm fed up with everyone pointing everywhere and nobody with at least some power willing to stand up and try to come up with practical solutions based on science. iSage is providing analysis and science, but seems no listeners... then again no listeners for sage either. :(

Shit, not to mention what will happen in week 3; our closed bubbles in sen schools have seen further transmission to staff requiring a further week of isolation. As you know, we need certain particularly skilled and trained staff in some classes. Supply can't run it.

Do those lost years of life not matter because they are not COVID deaths

It is certainly unusual, and doesn't appear justified, that all NICE evaluations of medical interventions are based on QALY's, but COVID is only evaluated against deaths.

As much as I'd prefer primaries to shut in areas of high transmission (speaking as a primary teacher of Sen who was told I was EV during lockdown) there is unfortunately the added difficulties around child protection.

Many children don't come into primary schools already noted as at risk; many end up being identified through the primary stages.

We've had a number go on the at risk registers and even into care as a result of lockdown. Certain incidents wouldn't have happened if it weren't for lockdown.

@NeurotrashWarrior
I'm half expecting a call at some point this week saying DC1 needs to isolate. Hoping we make it to the weekend though as isolation period for DC3 is up Wednesday and we really need to get some fresh air!
It's spreading like wildfire in DC1 school but you'd never know it. I suspect there may be parents of other schools in the area saying they've had no cases in schools near them as this hasn't been documented anywhere.
I'm hoping for a return after half term but knowing it's unlikely to be that straight forward. I'm just hoping all the teaching staff come through this without any lasting side effects.

[quote Ecosse]@herecomesthsun

What about the reduced life chances and therefore reduced life expectancy that disadvantaged DC will face from not reviving education?

Do those lost years of life not matter because they are not COVID deaths?[/quote]
199 out of 200 schools in Liverpool have had to send children home due to a positive test.

You dont avoid having to send children in deprived areas home simply by not having a circuit breaker.

A circuit breaker is to stop children having to go home multiple times which has already happened to at least one yr 10 in Knowsley (i note one of the most deprieved areas in the country). Thats a month that year has been home schooled when others schools haven't had to at all.

The welsh circuit breaker being across half term it also means its only one week in school this affects too.

Which would you pick? A week or 2 weeks or potentially 4 weeks or more in certain cases?

Makes sense to me in terms of working in the best interests of the most deprieved.

Fingers crossed he's ok shit I know exactly how hard this rigmarole is.

Another local sen primary school had to fully shut not so long ago.

@RedToothBrush

If a ‘circuit breaker’ was going to actually going to change anything, that would be correct. But it is simply a lockdown under another name.

We had a 3 month lockdown earlier this year and look where we are now. It simply pushes the can down the road.

What we need to have is an effective and working test and trace system.

If all kids in the year group go home for remote learning, it's a level playing field. If some go in, but others are working in school then it isn't. From what I remember of school, those having mocks should be studying independently at home, with questions piling up for the teachers. The new material can be fitted in when they're back at school, but kids also need to sit and learn on their own. It's undoubtedly hard without libraries, but to a large extent it's just always been much harder for those living in cramped living conditions. A situation being more noticeable now doesn't mean it isn't the case in normal times too.

We've had a number go on the at risk registers and even into care as a result of lockdown. Certain incidents wouldn't have happened if it weren't for lockdown.

So sad. What a failing.

I think focusing on a minority and making the majority comply is wrong.

Although our general approach. We all comply for minority. Otherwise low risk would not be taking the brunt also.