This seems to now be the government strategy. Apparently the writer is 'very well sourced'.
www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/10/the-new-testing-plan-that-johnson-believes-will-help-him-control-the-virus-and-win-back-the-support-of-conservatives-mps.html
The new testing plan that Johnson believes will help him control the virus – and win back the support of Conservative MPs
Not copying it all here but this is the key bit.
It starts off talking about what is uniting Labour and Tories who favour a Sweden style approach:
Namely, a loss of confidence in the central element of Boris Johnson’s strategy, and the strategic alternative to lockdowns and loosening: test and trace.
The scheme depends on finding within 48 hours 80 per cent of those who have been in contact with someone who a test has confirmed has Covid-19. And on those who are so traced then self-isolating for the required period.
ConservativeHome hasn’t yet found anyone with knowledge of the system who believes that this target will be hit, despite the localisation of tracing that the Government has recently agreed to.
However, Downing Street and senior Ministers believe that there is now a way out of the predicament that it currently finds itself in – one that will put Starmer back in his box, quell the calls for a national lockdown, relax the three-tiered restrictions plan and quieten those restive Tory backbenchers: a new testing programme entirely.
It is centred around two kinds of tests – in the jargon, LAMP tests and lateral-flow tests. The key to the latter is that they cut out the need for tracing, because of the scale at which they can be delivered.
If there are enough tests, after all, and they deliver results fast enough, then an elaborate tracing programme simply isn’t necessary. Crucially, the lateral-flow tests can deliver a result within 15 minutes or so. This programme is the Prime Minister’s “moonshot”.
Trials will be rolled out in some of the worst affected regions to universities, with students tested weekly; to care homes, with staff tested fortnightly, and schools, where pupils and staff will be tested in the event of an outbreak.
Meanwhile, the LAMP tests will be concentrated on testing asymptomatic NHS staff in seven urban areas. These require contact tracing. So the results will be collected by NHS Test and Trace, and then published as part of the daily case numbers.
Millions of these new tests – the lateral-flow ones are all done by means of swabs and don’t need to be sent off to laboratories – have already been bought. Similar ones are being used in America.
Government sources claim that present trials with students show that a higher proportion of the latter are prepared to self-isolate if tested directly, and told that they have the virus, than if contacted by a tracer, and told that they might do (which makes sense).
Unusually, the Prime Minister underplayed the chances of an immediate breakthrough last week, saying that “no country in the world is regularly testing millions of people”.
The Government will now need “to take the time to establish how to do this effectively and safely, and to build the logistics and distribution operation necessary for a large scale operation across the country”. That will involve a shake-up.
It goes on to talk about this shake up and the use of the private sector in this and sharing of data (with the private sector) which might set a few alarm bells ringing.
I'd also point out that this seems somewhat wildly ambitious and potentially unrealistic. Especially today with information about how there is a shortage of regents worldwide.
The trial of moonshot in Salford has more or less been abandoned and tests are being used to merely help local testing and the last report on this ive seen from last week was although the trial started in September, they were yet to crack 250 tests a day. They were hoping to get to 1000 a day soon. But if thats the sort of numbers they are at, how realistic is it to be scaling to the numbers proposed in the timeframe which is needed both for health and political reasons? It strikes me as not very realistic.
We also have the issue of rising costs of this. Mass testing isn't cheap. And what happens post 31st Dec? How much do we get from Europe and if we are having other logistical issues, its hard to see this not having a degree of knock on effects.
The other thing that strikes me about this, is if your scheme is this big and we are that far away from the goals needed to achieve it, how long do they think we will need such a huge system for? That sounds like long term planning, not planning for up to 6 months through the winter and into spring. That sounds like planning for at least the next 12 to 18 months. Especially the stuff about the sport, hospitality and entertainment sectors. It doesn't sound like a vaccine in the Spring is the being thought of as the start of the end by any means.
Its an interesting insight into what the government thinking and overall strategy now seems to be. And i do have some serious questions about how thats going to leave us in the next few months if this is where we are headed...