Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

If Greater Manchester havent stopped elective surgery yet they'll have to stop most of it now because with a lot of surgery there is a risk that the person will end up in intensive care. They'll only be able to do minor procedures and emergency surgery and even emergency surgery will be a problem.

There will be non surgical cases too that may not get the bed they need.

Of course people should be concerned about them - if only because it could be any of us and there are likely to be deaths that would have been avoidable with better medical care. The NHS never likes to admit to being overwhelmed but it came down to the wire before lockdown in London and it's got to cancel non emergency surgery now.

@Piggywaspushed

There appears to be a fairly chronic shortage of flue vaccinations at our surgery : not really sure why since other surgeries have it and routine blood tests have been cancelled for the last two weeks in our area. We haven't ever gone back to F2F GP appointments here and things such as smear tests are on a massive delay. This is not a high alert area. Any surgeries which ahve always been quite bad at coping just seems to be getting worse and worse.

I ahve no evidence of this other than online chats but in some areas the clinically vulnerable under 65 are not being prioritised for flu jab : they have supplies of the over 65 vaccine and are also doing the children. If this is widespread, that's a big concern for the working now non shielded/ safeguarded vulnerable population!

Your surgery will have ordered their flu jab based on last years uptake at the start of the year

Over 65s aren't prioritised over the under 65s as they receive an entirely different jab.

So your surgery will be using the jabs they ordered (no one could have known the uptake would be like this). The under 65s could be prioritised within their own category....

Once a surgery has allocated out their preordered stocks they can only sit and wait to see what extra they get allocated by their CCG. They will get no say though.....

That NHS backlog is frightening
with worse to come if many non-Covid ops and treatment are cancelled again in the near future

Some other countries, like Germany, seem to have worked off the last backlog of regular tests, non-urgent ops etc over summer by working flat out,
but the NHS never has the spare capacity to do that much.

It's certainly not the fault of staff - many years of decisions about the NHS budget are coming home to roost

The UK government have to head off any sharp rise in cases earlier than elsewhere,
because there is not much reserve capacity if many more cases feeds through to hospitalisations and ICU

Hence why the UK is considering a circuitbreaker / 2nd lockdown at a case level well below that of e.g. France
and Merkel said cases could go to 20k before Christmas without it being mentioned here either

The Government don't appear to have much trust in Tier 2 measures, many of the cities in places they are threatening with Tier 3 ( Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, Manchester) have shown a drop in cases since a peak in late September/early October. Leeds attached. With a decreased % positivity in many according to Boys excellent chart.

It's difficult to justify the move to Tier 3, with the associated economic impact.

Pic didn't attach.

How many flu vaccinations have been done so far in the UK ?
Normal figure looks ~ 14 million

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/804889/SeasonallinfluenzavaccineeuptakeinnGPpatientss1819.pdf

26 million of the notoriously vax-averse Germans have had the jab so far and we are still being encouraged to go.

Different system here, as GPs don't normally keep stocks of any vaccine:
reception write a prescription which the patient collects / orders at the chemist - who buy from around the country - and brings back to be jabbed.

So long as there is sufficient supply within the country, this works - central government ordered extra in advance and have since reordered, which seems enough so far.

Our surgery ran out of stock rapidly because they got an amount based on last years uptake. I was vaccinated last year but joined the waiting list. They sounded unhappy about the higher uptake this year, although the government specifically encouraged people to get vaccinated to help health services!

My OH is more at risk (and older than me). Fortunately they had a couple of people not able to be vaccinated and we were able to go at short notice so we've been vaccinated.

Madness not to prioritise the most vulnerable.

The predictions so far for countries' EOY drop in GDP seem to have assumed SD would roughly continue as before - without drastic tightening, certainly without 2nd lockdown / circuitbreaker
(which always seemed optimistic)

Those forecasts were bad enough

alreadytaken but didn't central govt order in more this summer ?
Blindingly obvious it would be needed

@BigChocFrenzy

alreadytaken but didn't central govt order in more this summer ? Blindingly obvious it would be needed

Yes but surgeries don't get any say on how many they will he given

My surgery is doing all routine appointments/blood tests/smears etc. Doc appointments are triaged over phone as to whether u need face2face. Tbh it's working well and u get seen sooner!!

My healthcare trust hospital appointments are running to their new normal too (everything had to be more spaced out)

Knock-on effects from hospitality sector being hit:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/18/rishi-sunak-warned-public-sectors-food-supply-at-risk

The supply of food to care homes, schools, hospitals and prisons is at risk unless the government steps in to support struggling wholesalers,
the UK chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has been warned.

Trade bodies representing major food companies said the loss of business from the hospitality sector, which has been rocked by the 10pm curfew and limits on household mixing,
meant that firms which also serve the public sector could fail.

"surgeries don't get any say on how many they will be given"

Ah, I see
That's the difference between supply being allocated centrally vs having a central supply all GPs can draw on at need

Also agree that that article about hospitals in GM is a bit of red herring because hospitals never have loads of spare capacity this time of year - clearly there is going to be a major problem (nationally) however if hospitalisations keep rising. Local media seems to suggest that GM will reach some kind of deal today - I'm very much on AB's team but I do hope they agree something asap .Cases in manchester city seem to have gone down a bit but not the case across GM. I don't think what they are proposing will work but something needs to be done - hopefully they will get more enforcement powers as well as more local track and trace resources - these things could help. Where I am (very edge of GM close to Cheshire border) people seem to be mostly very compliant which makes it all the more worrying as cases have been increasing for weeks regardless.

Nottingham Hospitals Trust has certainly cancelled all routine, non urgent operations for adults since Friday after a surge in patients according to.local news, Independent and Telegraph papers

At this rate that predicted 4-year NHS backlog will rocket upwards
This is so shit

@BigChocFrenzy

At this rate that predicted 4-year NHS backlog will rocket upwards This is so shit

Great if you've got shares in private health care.

One of my friends has had an ongoing shoulder problem and couldn't get the appointment she had been promised.

She asked on Facebook how long people thought it would be before she was sorted.

As a result of responses shes gone private as she couldn't take being in pain any longer. That's her 'rainy day' fund wiped out.

Loads of people will just give up on the nhs if they have the option.

@cathyandclare

The Government don't appear to have much trust in Tier 2 measures, many of the cities in places they are threatening with Tier 3 ( Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle, Manchester) have shown a drop in cases since a peak in late September/early October. Leeds attached. With a decreased % positivity in many according to Boys excellent chart.

It's difficult to justify the move to Tier 3, with the associated economic impact.

Remember that Newcastle brought in stricter measures about 2-3 weeks before the tier system.

Also, it looks very like a lot of this has been mass freshers flu in those cities.

I'd be very interested to see graphs that separate the students from the locals.

@RedToothBrush yes I have seen this at work as well - there has been a much higher uptick in people taking the private healthcare option “just in case” - myself included

The private sector dont generally have ICUs so wont be able to operate much longer either and are no use at all if you have an accident, when you get taken to the nearest place that sees trauma.

Surgeries are getting extra stock in, the initial allocation was based on last year. My surgery were expecting stock later this year, hence the waiting list.

I agree that the student population accounts for much of the spike in cases, including identifying high numbers of asymptomatic people. Many of the social or hall-dwelling student population may have already been infected, so in the short-term at least there could be a level of protection in that herd.

With figures falling, I would still avoid going into Tier 3. It just seems like it's the level where areas languish for months, without it making a dramatic difference to infection but having devastating impacts on jobs. I don't want a circuit-breaker but at least something strictly time-limited that also stops education has a chance of putting the brakes on for a while.

@BigChocFrenzy

"surgeries don't get any say on how many they will be given"

Ah, I see
That's the difference between supply being allocated centrally vs having a central supply all GPs can draw on at need

Well centrally in terms of your areas CCG. It's not centralised as in the whole of England/Wales etc.

But the surgeries don't get to tell their CCG how many they need

Someone wondered about covid-19 hospital patient ages, you can find those in this admissions report, though it runs a few weeks behind: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/.

Waiting times: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/rtt-waiting-times/rtt-data-2020-21/.
It's worth noting though that GP referrals have plummeted:
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/outpatient-referrals/mrr-data/.

@Piggywaspushed / @PrayingandHoping - our local GP gave the early slot booking to over-65s, so they prioritised them that way even though it's a different jab (and the 2/3yr old jab was delivered a few weeks late). They do a rush through the surgery one by one in Saturdays, so it's quite efficient. I've heard of lots waiting a week or two to get an appointment slot around here (even Boots) , but nobody who's been told there isn't enough vaccine. Is it the CCG postcode lottery again on whether they ordered extra this year?

@cathyandclare I would hope they don't either!

Is there talk of it?

I suppose tbe worry is they may know that cases aren't falling when students are taken out of the equation.

The director of public health at Newcastle however seem to be saying last week that they can tell that cases are falling even with student cases taken into account. As I say though, we've actually had stricter measures for several weeks.