Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

I know, I'm hoping it is student related, especially with the amount of students Durham alone had test positive. Just looking at the hospital data for County Durham & Darlington Foundation Trust - 14th September there were 4 patients in hospital. 1 month later, 14th October (last date on there) 50.
If the increase in cases & positivity rates is students then it's caused quite an increase in hospitalisations considering the set up of Uni students. Again they aren't anywhere near what they were and ICU patients is still quite low - 0 up to & inc the 24th September, now 4.

@Shitfuckoh

I know, I'm hoping it is student related, especially with the amount of students Durham alone had test positive. Just looking at the hospital data for County Durham & Darlington Foundation Trust - 14th September there were 4 patients in hospital. 1 month later, 14th October (last date on there) 50. If the increase in cases & positivity rates is students then it's caused quite an increase in hospitalisations considering the set up of Uni students. Again they aren't anywhere near what they were and ICU patients is still quite low - 0 up to & inc the 24th September, now 4.

It would be interesting to split that between the two hospitals. Darlington has no real uni student population. Maybe some at an extended Teesside campus. It is also a good 15 miles from busy. Durham and is more of an old style market town.

@Shitfuckoh

I know, I'm hoping it is student related, especially with the amount of students Durham alone had test positive. Just looking at the hospital data for County Durham & Darlington Foundation Trust - 14th September there were 4 patients in hospital. 1 month later, 14th October (last date on there) 50. If the increase in cases & positivity rates is students then it's caused quite an increase in hospitalisations considering the set up of Uni students. Again they aren't anywhere near what they were and ICU patients is still quite low - 0 up to & inc the 24th September, now 4.

That’s an interesting chart. It’d be similar throughout. Just pondering on the flat part when it was very low.

Did hospitals get through much of the back log of the postponed healthcare in that time?

@RigaBalsam
I was hoping to find the same data but could only find the combined number.

I know between March & mid July the number of patients in hospital that died was 346.
311 were residents of County Durham
35 of Darlington.
So quite a big difference in deaths so I'd really like to know which hospitals have what figures.

[quote Shitfuckoh]@RigaBalsam
I was hoping to find the same data but could only find the combined number.

I know between March & mid July the number of patients in hospital that died was 346.
311 were residents of County Durham
35 of Darlington.
So quite a big difference in deaths so I'd really like to know which hospitals have what figures.[/quote]
It certainly does seem the memorial had fewer than Durham.
Having 93 deaths up to 3rd Oct.

@MarshaBradyo
I don't 100% know.
I know from my social circle that tests needed in March (xray & MRIs) didn't start to happen until end of July.
Things like 'Autism pathway' appointments are still being done via videocall / teams etc.

GP surgery here did do preschooler flu spray but is still proving difficult to get a face to face appointment with a GP. Not all surgeries are the same though, some friends in another part of the County have been able to get f2f appointments (after the initial phone consultation)

• I think there is a continuing issue across Europe about supplies of reagents etc not being limitless e.g. Hoffmann-La Roche have had supply issues for the kits*

The article doesn’t mention reagents, it’s the ramping up testing by 45% without the lab capacity particularly staffing.

@RigaBalsam

That seems like quite a big increase between July & October! Not having much look finding information regarding University hospital figures.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-full
Reports of hospitals in Greater Manchester ( including the one I can see out of my bedroom window) running out of critical care beds.

This article is primarily about homelessness but it has a couple of figures in here about how bad the economics are and how bad fears are that things will get.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/needles-bonfires-rooting-through-bins-19047682?fbclid=IwAR1b-cNhGp3eRhPu_79dyzvDeveQGmDZEjWXT9SRuhUZbEbeyAOpYI3sH5s
Needles, bonfires and rooting through bins: Life at the city centre apartment buildings where homeless people keep breaking in

In August, the region's leaders warned that "homelessness could return to the streets of Greater Manchester on a scale not seen since the 1930s".

A 'perfect storm' of factors is coming together as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, they said.

The number of people claiming for unemployment in the region is up by 88 per cent, the government's furlough scheme is due to end in October, and thousands more jobs are at risk as businesses struggle with the turmoil.

and

The housing charity Shelter says an estimated 322,000 private renters have fallen into arrears since the pandemic started, putting them at risk of eviction.

@Coquohvan

* I think there is a continuing issue across Europe about supplies of reagents etc not being limitless e.g. Hoffmann-La Roche have had supply issues for the kits*

The article doesn’t mention reagents, it’s the ramping up testing by 45% without the lab capacity particularly staffing.

.... The article refers to the USA, but there are articles elsewhere about shortages of reagents in many countries e.g. NHS

Hospitals must ration blood tests after issues with reagent supplier

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/07/nhs-coronavirus-tests-threatened-by-roche-supply-chain-glitch

and the RKI mentioned this as a limiting factor

and the US article I quoted had the shortage of reagents in its title, not etxt:

www.chemistryworld.com/news/new-covid-19-test-doesnt-need-reagents-that-are-in-short-supply/4012562.article

In US again
www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-testing-is-hampered-by-shortages-of-critical-ingredient-11600772400

There is a worldwide supply bottleneck,
not surprising as so many countries are doing hundreds of thousands of tests per week, that they never did pre-Covid
Some ingredients have to be imported from e.g. China ....

Reports of hospitals in Greater Manchester ( including the one I can see out of my bedroom window) running out of critical care beds

And as noted by the NHS in the article, it's normal for the time of year, other places seem to put it at slightly below this time last year. If it is dominated by COVID now, we should probably be worrying where the people who are normally in those beds are now? Are they missing out on care they would normally get.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Could another 7 million more people go into the Tier 3 Very High alert level this week? That is what ministers intend to do, with or without deals with local leaders, they now insist. Greater Manchester, South Yorks, West Yorks and Nottingham all about to be moved up from Tier

That said, progress being made with all of them on achieving deals, with hospitals reporting ever higher covid admission rates. Deals in South and West Yorks look closest, with an announcement expected Tuesday.
Unlike in Manchester, local leaders not holding out for 80% of wages.

Instead, they have a proposal to devolve more money down to councils to support businesses and workers. "There are other ways to skin the cat," one northern figure says. Time also now becoming crucial. The figure adds: "Each day of delay has a cost in lives".

Meanwhile The Times and The Telegraph both seem to be indicating that Manchester will get more money (£100 milion offer) and the Times is saying that Tory MPs who had aligned with Burnham may now be willing to accept this.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Manchester still proving the hardest nut to crack, but progress being made there too, thanks to Treasury millions. Andy Burnham and No10's Eddie Lister talking again in the morning, with silence from both tonight seen as a good sign. More on @TimesRadio tomorrow after 7am.

"Unlike in Manchester, local leaders not holding out for 80% of wages."

If Burnham wins 80% for Manchester, of course it would then have to be 80% nationally - which it should be !
However, it would cost the Treasury a lot, so no wonder the govt are attacking him

@sirfredfredgeorge

Reports of hospitals in Greater Manchester ( including the one I can see out of my bedroom window) running out of critical care beds

And as noted by the NHS in the article, it's normal for the time of year, other places seem to put it at slightly below this time last year. If it is dominated by COVID now, we should probably be worrying where the people who are normally in those beds are now? Are they missing out on care they would normally get.

.... That's a big issue, the non-Covid care Can it be maintained, or will all non-urgent cases have to be stopped, as in March

Have non-elective ops already been stopped ?

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/repossessions-loom-as-mortgage-holidays-expire-25nz5fg0g

From next month people will no longer be able to ask their lender to defer mortgage repayments and a moratorium on repossessions for mortgage arrears will be lifted.

About 1.9 million people, one in six borrowers, deferred repayments after losing income during the pandemic. Those given three-month mortgage payment holidays at the start of lockdown in March who then extended them by three months will have to resume repayments. Many homeowners are also leaving the furlough scheme or face redundancy.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/16/boris-johnson-wont-hit-target-500000-covid-tests-day-end-month/

The article refers to the US

It refers to the U.K. regarding ramping testing no mention of reagents or US in this article.

@RedToothBrush
Truly shocking article.
So sad for them.

Apologies if this has already been posted - the FT have published a huge data report pulling together all their different covid strands of analysis from the year. Some really interesting graphs and visualisations of worldwide impacts

ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data

@Coquohvan

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/16/boris-johnson-wont-hit-target-500000-covid-tests-day-end-month/

The article refers to the US

It refers to the U.K. regarding ramping testing no mention of reagents or US in this article.

.... My reply to your Telegraph article, gave a link which mentions the reagent shortage, as do my subsequent links.

i.e. in the sentence of mine you quoted, I was saying the tests could not be ramped up anyway and giving the reason of the reagents

There appears to be a fairly chronic shortage of flue vaccinations at our surgery : not really sure why since other surgeries have it and routine blood tests have been cancelled for the last two weeks in our area. We haven't ever gone back to F2F GP appointments here and things such as smear tests are on a massive delay. This is not a high alert area. Any surgeries which ahve always been quite bad at coping just seems to be getting worse and worse.

I ahve no evidence of this other than online chats but in some areas the clinically vulnerable under 65 are not being prioritised for flu jab : they have supplies of the over 65 vaccine and are also doing the children. If this is widespread, that's a big concern for the working now non shielded/ safeguarded vulnerable population!

Yes the link within the article does mention reagents.

It'll take four years for NHS to recover from Covid-19, health chiefs warn

This article is from late June but I don't see why that forecast would change

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/27/itll-take-four-years-for-nhs-to-recover-from-covid-19-health-chiefs-warn