Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

In addition to the deaths announced daily, there are also the "catchup deaths" announced daily separately:

NHS England reported an additional 61 hospital deaths that occurred over 10 dates.

32 were reported last Sunday.

Uk deaths this week = 821 ..... by date reported
UK deaths last week = 475

That's > 70% increase

(data & chart from COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats)

Track & Trace

Wales t&t have all along been doing better than England's

Although Wales % is dropping with the sheer number of cases now - this is inevitable once cases exceed tracking capacity - and the gap has narrowed

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/coronavirus-covid-test-trace-contact-19109540

Comparing these weeks, contact tracers in Wales are reaching around 15% more positive cases than those in England.

Although, the number of close contacts successfully followed up when contact details were provided was closer,
tracers in Wales still reached around 5% more people than tracers in England for the closest comparable time frame.

The test and trace system in Wales is run in collaboration with Public Health Wales, Welsh Government and local authorities while in England, test and trace is largely outsourced to firms including Serco.

Someone upthread as about testing increasing.
Was to be 500k by month end. Doesn’t look like it...
Paywall.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/16/boris-johnson-wont-hit-target-500000-covid-tests-day-end-month/

.

@BigChocFrenzy
This I found. It's half of the equation.
But I can't see the community positivity rate as positive cases are accumulated and reported for all pillars as one.

[quote Coquohvan]Someone upthread as about testing increasing.
Was to be 500k by month end. Doesn’t look like it...
Paywall.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/16/boris-johnson-wont-hit-target-500000-covid-tests-day-end-month/[/quote]
....
I think there is a continuing issue across Europe about supplies of reagents etc not being limitless
e.g. Hoffmann-La Roche have had supply issues for the kits

So plans for 500k daily tests probably need to be looking at tests with ingredients that the UK can manufacture or at least have a secure source in much larger quantities

This kind of thing from the USA looks promising:

New Covid-19 test doesn’t need reagents that are in short supply

www.chemistryworld.com/news/new-covid-19-test-doesnt-need-reagents-that-are-in-short-supply/4012562.article

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@BigChocFrenzy
This I found. It's half of the equation.
But I can't see the community positivity rate as positive cases are accumulated and reported for all pillars as one.[/quote]
...
The PHE weekly Covid & flu report gives this - just for England though - last report was to 13 Oct, so always in the past

Figure 1 on Page 6:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/927142/WeeklyyFluanddCOVID-19reportt_w42.pdf

Thanks :)

We need this data on the UK dash

Pillar 1 looks ~3% and pillar 2 ~8%

positivity rate for each English LA. Have shown the figure from last Sunday and that for today. Whilst I would generally strongly advise against drawing conclusions from two data points, for Nottingham and Newcastle in particular it is probably bordering on reasonable to do so.

UTLAs and first set of districts.

Page 2:

"Through the UK GP swabbing scheme, there was little change in SARS-CoV-2 positivity:
5.7% in week 40, 5.0% in week 41.
....
Overall estimated national seroprevalence based on blood donor samples was 5.9%"

but blood donors excludes those with some past / present health conditions and age > ~65

and all remaining districts

just to note P2 rates only

@boys3

positivity rate for each English LA. Have shown the figure from last Sunday and that for today. Whilst I would generally strongly advise against drawing conclusions from two data points, for Nottingham and Newcastle in particular it is probably bordering on reasonable to do so.

UTLAs and first set of districts.

... Excellent data, boys

Where did you download - from dash dataset ?

Nottingham & Newcastle indeed have very sharp drops in positivity
Good news there !

Here's a number for you. Essex County Council will receive £3m for putting us into Tier 2 (when our figures aren't actually that high compared to many).

Hmm
Essex county council:

Number of seats.
Conservative, 53.
Liberal Democrat, 8.
Labour, 6.
Miscell 8

Let's see what GM receives for their tier

Not too sure about Newcastle. Yes they've had a sharp decrease but County Durham, Gateshead, Sunderland - all seem to have had an increase. Hoping (as someone in the NE) that these areas will follow Newcastle so really hoping the decrease is an actual one rather than a blip.

I officially can't keep up with this thread! So sorry if this has already been posted. It's a long but good analysis of the current situation in the UK by Nick Triggle, BBC:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54546867
It examines how difficult it is to make decisions about what measures to put in place.

Shit, I've wondered if it's because all the students got it at the same time? One great big freshers flu. Their numbers inflated the rates considerably. Sp it's possibly coming down over all but we won't know for a while.

I also worry that so many were fed up with restrictions that fewer are getting tests especially with half term coming up.

But maybe the no mingling with anyone outside your own household was actually effective?

That is a really interesting article @Bifflepants , thanks. A shame it doesn't look at how other governments are navigating their way though.

I also worry that so many were fed up with restrictions that fewer are getting tests especially with half term coming up

Though positivity rates would be higher wouldn't they!

@alreadytaken

Imperial modelling - here www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-26-mobility-transmission/

said " small increases in contact rates are likely to risk resurgence even where COVID-19 is apparently under control. Overall, strong population-wide social-distancing measures are effective to control COVID-19; however gradual easing of restrictions must be accompanied by alternative interventions, such as efficient contact-tracing, to ensure control. "

It doesnt need major differences in compliance to send this out of control .

Id read this as saying the main problem has been the poor performance of track and trace.