Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
--
Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

Request to posters giving a link:
. Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
. Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Fairly sure a circuit breakbreaker is likely now to be inevitable in England.

Though it may be regionalised.

@marshabrady

‘A paper by members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), obtained by The Times and due to be published today, challenges his position. It shows that a two-week full lockdown, with stay-at-home orders and school closures, from October 24 could reduce deaths for the rest of the year from about 19,900 to 12,100. Hospital admissions could be reduced from 132,400 to 66,500.’

I’m positively surprised that the ‘continue as now’ scenario is 19,000 covid deaths by the end of the year. That is in the realms of flu levels, where we do not lockdown. At the risk of sounding heartless, 130,000 people are expected to die between now and the end of the year of all causes. I am not advocating letting it rip by going back to normal (which would presumably be a higher total), but frankly there is a legitimate debate as to whether those numbers justify additional restrictions, and if they do, why half-term and Christmas are not cancelled every year to protect the vulnerable/elderly.

It also really bodes i’ll for what happens with a partially effective vaccine. If any deaths from covid are seen as unacceptable (though other illnesses are fine), can any government just end the restrictions?

Are any other countries contemplating a full lockdown again? It seems most of Europe are following a blended approach, with local areas being subjected to higher levels of restrictions. What are their scientists views?

Is there any actual definitions on what numbers per 100000 need to be per tier?
I personally feel they have left it far to late to put these tiers in with numbers so high esp in the very high tier.
Where I am there was 40ish cases the week before last so very low.
Now 100 last week which dont seem much compared to other counties but more then doubled in a week.

Eyewhisker I agree with you. I think the hospital number is of higher interest for that reason. At what number are we in trouble wrt using all alternatives. And at what number is it necessary to stop other non critical healthcare.

The actual number of deaths isn’t as onerous as economic damage imo. But I’m obviously just focussing on numbers. And we need a functioning health care system.

No definitions in terms of rate per 100,000 no. It's thought to be a combination of that, deaths, hospital/ICU capacity. Plus if containable spread ie student population, and then there's the views of loca politicians!

Arlene Foster's just announced that Northern Ireland is going into lockdown for a fortnight from Friday. Schools closed too although 1 week of that is half term anyway*

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54533643

Says on 2 Nov the closure of schools (plus the other measures??) "will be reviewed".

I would prefer a bundle of other measures:

improving track & trace,
by handing it over to those local authorities that say they could handle it, along with plenty of budget and other resources

removing incompetent cronyist appointees from key roles

removing contracts given without tender to incompetents, if there are alternatives

giving more budget and resources to school heads to make ft schools safer,
along with permission to mandate masks in secondary classrooms where the head deems this feasible

giving more budget to the NHS and public health,
along with more resources for the NHS to carry out tests

continuing with current SD rules, but with better comunciation and enforcement

However, I don't expect any of this to actually happen

Crikey @Augustbreeze, I thought the point of short sharp lockdown was so everyone tries really bloody hard for just a couple of weeks to keep to themselves for a hard drop in numbers and then we all carry on the new normal. I'd support that, with draconian levels of issuing fines. But how can the figures justify a flabby never-ending repeat of the first lockdown? The country can't afford it and people won't behave if they think it's going to go on forever.

Additionally full pay for those isolating, 80% for those furloughed, without income limit

more financial support for the self-employed and businesses

I would also give money to anyone who self isolates

If you are not going to do any of that, ie enable suppression, which saves lives and economy, then is it actually economically better to just let virus and death rip and then pick up the pieces of society in 6 months or a years time ?

Is the current approach of letting it repeatedly get out of control actually giving us the worst of everything?

.

permission to mandate masks in secondary classrooms where the head deems this feasible
Can someone please tell me where in the guidance for secondary schools it says that under no circumstances can a Head request mask wearing for anyone not legally exempt? I posted the link again in the last thread to the guidance, I simply don't see this lack of permission in it.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-in-education/face-coverings-in-education

The original guidance very much says this. It ahs been written squillions of times and was impossible for heads to keep up. It may be they are still working from the original guidance.

The big problem we have is the different between 'encouraging' and mandating. And Harries' original comments in a briefing made people believe they were massively harmful to learning more so than a pandemic could ever be

I think financial support should be more even. If furloughed people get unlimited 80% pay when those made redundant get £74.35 a week it doesn't seem very fair. Also I know self employed people who have worked non stop since March but have been getting support based on previous years income without any regard to what they are currently making. None of that seems very fair. We know the business loans are being abused by fraudulently set up businesses but I've also heard of local business people getting the £50k loan, spending it on clearing personal debt or house improvements and saying the business will be bankrupt next year so they might as well enjoy the money.

Not sure our money is being spent wisely. I can't prove all that but we know what JSA is and we know the business loans are being abused and also the rules for support for the self employed.

@Piggywaspushed - that link was last updated towards the end of August. Understandable for it not to have been checked by start of term perhaps, but why wouldn't anyone check since then when infection rates have gone up?

Latest long covid issue - man gets permanent hearing issue from Covid, possible nerve or middle ear damage, can occur with flu. Might have been prevented by earlier steroid treatment.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54526660

[quote MRex]permission to mandate masks in secondary classrooms where the head deems this feasible
Can someone please tell me where in the guidance for secondary schools it says that under no circumstances can a Head request mask wearing for anyone not legally exempt? I posted the link again in the last thread to the guidance, I simply don't see this lack of permission in it.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-in-education/face-coverings-in-education[/quote]
.....
After their precious discouragement, the government needs to be a lot more positive about allowing masks,
instead of collecting splinters in their arse and what might be considered implied criticism of some schools that need it:

"Nationwide, the government is not recommending face coverings are necessary in education settings generally because a system of controls, applicable to all education environments, provides additional mitigating measures.

Schools and colleges will have the discretion to require face coverings in indoor communal areas where social distancing cannot be safely managed, if they believe that it is right in their particular circumstances."

The permission to heads seems very grudging
(possibly because the govt don't want this policy change to be clear wnough to be called another U-turn ?)

I would recommend at least they delete this sentence:

""Nationwide, the government is not recommending face coverings are necessary in education settings generally because a system of controls, applicable to all education environments, provides additional mitigating measures."

I think we should review why people are not self-isolating.

I am sure money is a factor but I am not confident it is the only / main reason. Bolton’s alleged superspreader who went on pub crawls upon returning from holidays has not done it for financial reasons.

Both France and Belgium have recently revised their self-isolation requirements and I think we should review what impact the change had on the level of compliance. Arguably, it may be better to have 80% of people isolating for 1 week (with potential testing on day 7) than only 20% isolating for 2 weeks.

Sure, it's not encouraged, but all schools are different and so are infection rates. If I were a Head in a secondary school in Liverpool for example, then I really wouldn't be so squeamish about putting it in place because my risk assessment would say the risk is getting too high and be happy to share that info with the school community and would want confirmation in writing for child exemptions.

BTW, I have just seen that Tim Spector (Zoe) is also asking the same question - does it really make sense to have self-isolation requirements that are not followed by the vast majority of people?

Tim Spector has been relatively risk averse in his approach so far so it is interesting to see this question coming from him.

England, Wales and Scotland are among the nations which had the highest number of excess deaths as a result of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, a study has found.

Research, led by Imperial College London, analysed weekly data from 19 European countries, Australia and New Zealand, between mid-February and the end of May.

England, Wales and Spain experienced the largest increase in mortality, with nearly 100 excess deaths per 100,000 people.

According to the researchers, this is an increase of 37% for England and Wales and 38% for Spain, when compared to how many deaths would have been expected without the pandemic.

In Scotland, the excess death deaths rate was 84 per 100,000 people during the first wave, which is a 28% increase from average expected deaths.

@BigChocFrenzy

I would prefer a bundle of other measures:

improving track & trace,
by handing it over to those local authorities that say they could handle it, along with plenty of budget and other resources

removing incompetent cronyist appointees from key roles

removing contracts given without tender to incompetents, if there are alternatives

giving more budget and resources to school heads to make ft schools safer,
along with permission to mandate masks in secondary classrooms where the head deems this feasible

giving more budget to the NHS and public health,
along with more resources for the NHS to carry out tests

continuing with current SD rules, but with better comunciation and enforcement

However, I don't expect any of this to actually happen

I'd 100% agree with all of this Big Choc and I would add a move to blended learning in at least secondary schools in very high ( and maybe also high) tiers, with funding to arrange special support for students in difficult circumstances.