Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

ooh and you can zoom in on the new map too!!!

It still won't accept the Glasgow postcodes I've tried !
but accepts England, Wales, NI
I'll try more Scottish codes

@Baaaahhhhh

Surrey Local Outbreak Engagement Board – Established to provide political ownership, public-facing engagement and communication for outbreak response

I've noted this before. But in Surrey, all schools are now encouraged to wear face masks in all communal areas. Decided by local council, for the local community. I think we are very lucky in Surrey.

@Baaaahhhhh

I can’t find this encouragement easily, even though I have found the Outbreak Engagement Board information. Is it possible for you to direct me to it? Do you mean all schools or all secondary schools?

The schools I know in Surrey aren’t wearing masks.

Richard@RP131 with UK new cases by specimen date overlaid with 9-day doubling

Nearly 20000 today...

Oh, just seen it's been posted..apologies!

If you look at hospital admissions for the North West (England) overall, the growth rate suggests a doubling every 12 days or so. Current numbers are just over 50% of the previous peak, so are one doubling (12 days if current rate of growth continues) away from being higher than the previous peak in April.

However, a large proportion of admissions have been in the Liverpool area, where they are possibly 7 to 10 days away from reaching the previous peak.

'Intensive care units at Liverpool’s main hospitals are at 95 per cent capacity (...) Sources have told The Times that the number of Covid-19 patients across all beds is expected to surpass its April peak in the next seven to ten days'
mobile.twitter.com/WvSchaik/status/1316400368553734144

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-hospitals-in-liverpool-about-to-run-out-of-intensive-care-beds-gs8h67qs3

@RedToothBrush Yh I've had that happen. I just press refresh. But weird

7 day positivity rate (reported 12th October) in County Durham being reported as 19.6%.

Thats on a par with Liverpool for positivity although cases per 100,000 is significantly less atm.

Theres also data on ICU beds for county durham and darlingto foundation trust.

It looks like they are running at about 30% of the April already.

If those numbers stay that high you can probably expect it to start looking a lot like Liverpool in 10 - 14 days by my best guestimation.

Btw county durham has the 30th highest rate of cases in the country.

So Liverpool to have a real issue in about 10 - 14 days and lots of other places likely to be around where Liverpool is now in 10 - 14 days if we are not careful.

If that scenario plays out, how do you avoid a circuit breaker?

@BigChocFrenzy

It still won't accept the Glasgow postcodes I've tried ! but accepts England, Wales, NI I'll try more Scottish codes

It works for me. I put in G409BA Police Scotland’s HQ. Up it pops cases et all. However, when you zoom in deeper the map detail Disappears.

Over in Bolton which effectively was in T3 under the old system (pubs closed under more strict regs than Liverpool) but is currently T2

www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/18791604.amp/
Five more coronavirus deaths in Bolton

FIVE more people have now died at Royal Bolton Hospital after contracting coronavirus.

The latest deaths, which were added to official statistics earlier this afternoon, show one patient death from Friday, three deaths from Saturday, and one from Monday have all been linked to covid-19.

So far in October, 21 deaths have been linked to coronavirus, more than we've seen in the past three months combined.

Eight patients who died in September, five who died in August, and five who died in July had their deaths linked to coronavirus

Screen grab from site.

Long term lurker here, and another who finds the data and analysis in this thread an excellent resource- a big thank you.

I’m particularly interested in the economic side of things. The IMF’s 2020 growth forecast by country in June is shown below:
www.imf.org/~/media/Images/IMF/Publications/WEO/2020/June/English/WEOtableJune2020.ashx?la=en

However Channel 4 News last night did a piece showing an IMF October update for 4 countries, comparing the June forecast for 2020 to their new forecast. I can’t find this on the IMF website yet but the figures were:

USA: June -8%, Oct -4.3%
Germany: June -7.8%, Oct -6% France: June -12.8%, Oct -9.8% UK: June -10.2%, Oct -9.8%

Given the widespread view that better Covid control equates to better economic performance I am struggling to understand the US in particular. From what I understand their cases and deaths remain among the highest in the world but economically they are improving. Pretty much no state support (so less debt) I believe, but shouldn’t this mean they are in a worse state overall? Can anyone else explain this?

"It works for me. I put in G409BA Police Scotland’s HQ. Up it pops cases et all.
However, when you zoom in deeper the map detail Disappears."

Coquohvan I used the Glasgow G1 codes: G1 1BX etc
Maybe they are the odd ones out - their form is strange

I've probably stored some old Glasgow codes from somewhere - ignore me !

Missmidden the only thing I can think of is that it is a big country and presumably some parts are functioning well? I don't know but that is all I can think of.

@Missmidden

Long term lurker here, and another who finds the data and analysis in this thread an excellent resource- a big thank you.

I’m particularly interested in the economic side of things. The IMF’s 2020 growth forecast by country in June is shown below:
www.imf.org/~/media/Images/IMF/Publications/WEO/2020/June/English/WEOtableJune2020.ashx?la=en

However Channel 4 News last night did a piece showing an IMF October update for 4 countries, comparing the June forecast for 2020 to their new forecast. I can’t find this on the IMF website yet but the figures were:

USA: June -8%, Oct -4.3%
Germany: June -7.8%, Oct -6% France: June -12.8%, Oct -9.8% UK: June -10.2%, Oct -9.8%

Given the widespread view that better Covid control equates to better economic performance I am struggling to understand the US in particular. From what I understand their cases and deaths remain among the highest in the world but economically they are improving. Pretty much no state support (so less debt) I believe, but shouldn’t this mean they are in a worse state overall? Can anyone else explain this?

.... Ruthlessness of the US system - not much of a welfare state or safety net for those who don't work ?

.

Also being the #1 world superpower gives the US an economic strength and resilience no other country can match

The bits of the USA that were not hard hit are the very sparsely populated states, that together don't bring in much of the US GDP,
so I don't think they are making the difference

@RedToothBrush

7 day positivity rate (reported 12th October) in County Durham being reported as 19.6%.

Thats on a par with Liverpool for positivity although cases per 100,000 is significantly less atm.

Theres also data on ICU beds for county durham and darlingto foundation trust.

It looks like they are running at about 30% of the April already.

If those numbers stay that high you can probably expect it to start looking a lot like Liverpool in 10 - 14 days by my best guestimation.

Please excuse the anecdata but there have been significant clusters in Durham uni, with extensive testing of asymptomatic students.

@Missmidden

Long term lurker here, and another who finds the data and analysis in this thread an excellent resource- a big thank you.

I’m particularly interested in the economic side of things. The IMF’s 2020 growth forecast by country in June is shown below:
www.imf.org/~/media/Images/IMF/Publications/WEO/2020/June/English/WEOtableJune2020.ashx?la=en

However Channel 4 News last night did a piece showing an IMF October update for 4 countries, comparing the June forecast for 2020 to their new forecast. I can’t find this on the IMF website yet but the figures were:

USA: June -8%, Oct -4.3%
Germany: June -7.8%, Oct -6% France: June -12.8%, Oct -9.8% UK: June -10.2%, Oct -9.8%

Given the widespread view that better Covid control equates to better economic performance I am struggling to understand the US in particular. From what I understand their cases and deaths remain among the highest in the world but economically they are improving. Pretty much no state support (so less debt) I believe, but shouldn’t this mean they are in a worse state overall? Can anyone else explain this?

1. we are in the midst of an election campaign
2. the economy doing well is one of the most important factors to the incumbent winning an election in the us
3. this is the trump administration. Unfortunately some doubts have been cast on the quality of data released by this administration. Especially with regards to covid.

So i am slightly hesitant to take the us information on face value, especially at this stage.

Theres definitely some deliberate data suppression going on in a couple of states over cases. Theres no reason to believe this hasn't also been done for the economy.

@knittingaddict your post hits the nail on the head. I'm unsure why more people can't see this is what we should be trying to avoid at all costs (not necessarily people on this thread btw).

I fear that by the time the penny drops, we will be in dire straights.

I wish good health for you and your husband .

Article on the response to Covid-19 in Germany: www.vox.com/platform/amp/21495327/covid-19-germany-coronavirus-cases-deaths?