Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
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Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

We didnt lock down last time because the old were dying, if we have more lockdowns it wont be to safe the elderly population. We locked down because the government could see the NHS collapsing. This is NOT flu - far more people need to be admitted to hospital and they are by no means all old, the current average for ICU was said to be 60.

Some people with Covid dont conveniently die quickly or at all, they take up a bed for a long time and they use a lot more resources than the 6 or more patients who would normally occupy that bed being treated for something else.

Lockdowns are to ensure health care is available when you have your car accident, your pregnancy, your heart attack, your child with meningitis.

[quote Eyewhisker]@marshabrady

‘A paper by members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), obtained by The Times and due to be published today, challenges his position. It shows that a two-week full lockdown, with stay-at-home orders and school closures, from October 24 could reduce deaths for the rest of the year from about 19,900 to 12,100. Hospital admissions could be reduced from 132,400 to 66,500.’

I’m positively surprised that the ‘continue as now’ scenario is 19,000 covid deaths by the end of the year. That is in the realms of flu levels, where we do not lockdown. At the risk of sounding heartless, 130,000 people are expected to die between now and the end of the year of all causes. I am not advocating letting it rip by going back to normal (which would presumably be a higher total), but frankly there is a legitimate debate as to whether those numbers justify additional restrictions, and if they do, why half-term and Christmas are not cancelled every year to protect the vulnerable/elderly.

It also really bodes i’ll for what happens with a partially effective vaccine. If any deaths from covid are seen as unacceptable (though other illnesses are fine), can any government just end the restrictions?[/quote]

19,000 by the end of the year, so how many by next Spring?

Lots more.

So it isn't comparable to an average flu season because the deaths won't stop on 31/12.

Lockdowns are to ensure health care is available when you have your car accident, your pregnancy, your heart attack, your child with meningitis

And this needs to be the message.

Question as I'm quite confused now...

How often do reviews take place of which areas should be moved within tiers?

Which body makes and announces these decisions and when?

@Regulus

Lockdowns are to ensure health care is available when you have your car accident, your pregnancy, your heart attack, your child with meningitis

And this needs to be the message.

The numbers need to give context to this

Guardian
"More from Japan, where a supercomputer has shown that humidity can have a significant effect on the dispersion of virus particles. The finding points to an increased risk of coronavirus contagion in dry, indoor conditions - a major problem for the northern hemisphere as we move into winter.

There is a solution, Reuters reports (but it’s going to cost you):

The finding suggests that the use of humidifiers may help limit infections during times when window ventilation is not possible, according to a study released on Tuesday by research giant Riken and Kobe University.

The researchers used the Fugaku supercomputer to model the emission and flow of virus-like particles from infected people in a variety of indoor environments.

Air humidity of lower than 30% resulted in more than double the amount of aerosolised particles compared to levels of 60% or higher, the simulations showed."

Increasing humidity need not be expensive - google radiator humidifiers and you'll see the sort that cost very little. They only work when your heating is on but that is when your air dries out. Supplement them with and electric one if needed.

Lockdown was said initially to be "saving the NHS" - the focus on deaths is deliberate from those who are foolish enough to believe the economy will be better if the virus is left to run riot. All evidence suggests it will be worse.

Re NI is the plan to announce lockdown then ask for funding?

Just heard on R4, didn’t realise it was that way round

Already I wouldn’t focus on deaths first but I think numbers are important to give meaning to hospitalisation / overwhelming issues

19,000 by the end of the year, so how many by next Spring? Lots more. So it isn't comparable to an average flu season because the deaths won't stop on 31/12.

Yes, and aren't flu deaths more normally after December - how many flu deaths from now until 31/12 in a normal year?

Schoolchildren here aren't being vaccinated against flu until December.

Ari I would avoid blended pt schools for the reasons described by many already

If things got that bad, I'd rather cancel secondary school for half the years and spread the other years out over the classrooms -
but the most important secondary school years are the 16+, who unfortunately bring higher risk than younger ones

Lockdowns are to ensure health care is available when you have your car accident, your pregnancy, your heart attack, your child with meningitis

Agreed - Van Tam said as much.

www.gov.uk/government/news/deputy-chief-medical-officer-professor-jonathan-van-tams-op-ed

"We all have to help our hard-working NHS staff continue to care for everyone who needs it urgently, and provide as many non-urgent tests, checks and treatments as possible, by helping to stem the rising tide of infections.

People point out that we must not lose sight of the indirect harms of Covid-19. They are absolutely right. We need to keep elective surgeries and non-urgent services open for as long as we can; we need to keep cancer treatment and diagnostic services going; and we need to continue to provide mental health services. And importantly, we need people to come forward for that care when they need it – and we know that, during the first peak, fear of the virus put many off from doing so.

The best way we can do this is to keep the number of Covid-19 cases down. If cases rise dramatically the NHS will need to focus more on dealing with the life threatening situations immediately in front of them; this can mean freeing up staff and space by postponing other non-urgent procedures and treatments. We need to help the NHS by keeping Covid-19 numbers low; and in turn the NHS will be there for us, our families and loved ones."

I don't think comparing infections which are already endemic in our communities, have been around for many years and which have vaccination programs as well as a level of population immunity built up by people catching it in successive years can be compared to a novel infection.

The problem with novel infections is that no-one in a whole population has been exposed before. Even now, we're still closer to that scenario than to any meaningful level of population immunity.

@wintertravel1980

I think we should review why people are not self-isolating.

I am sure money is a factor but I am not confident it is the only / main reason. Bolton’s alleged superspreader who went on pub crawls upon returning from holidays has not done it for financial reasons.

Both France and Belgium have recently revised their self-isolation requirements and I think we should review what impact the change had on the level of compliance. Arguably, it may be better to have 80% of people isolating for 1 week (with potential testing on day 7) than only 20% isolating for 2 weeks.

I think there are other factors too. I get the impression one may be the sheer strength of some people's intuition telling them that they're clearly fine, and either not ill at all (if in quarantine) or barely ill at all (if positive), and the disconnect between that strong feeling and the public health messages. On top of that it's clear some people are still afraid of seeming dramatic or attention seeking if they act as if they might have covid (because it seems like claiming they're special and don't just have an ordinary illness), so they tend to minimise.

All in all, I think probably the invisibility of the risk predisposes people to behave as if they're not infected, because that's the message their gut is sending them the whole time, and that's the stronger message. I wonder if creative ways of visualising the risk of transmission would make it seem more concrete to people?

I get the impression one may be the sheer strength of some people's intuition telling them that they're clearly fine

Yes I agree it is a disconnect
Plus two weeks is a long time to stay inside

Scotland Daily cases 1429 and deaths 15
Not looking good is it.

Schoolchildren here aren't being vaccinated against flu until December

We've not had any information on children's vaccines yet. Thankfully my Flu CV child is 12 so I have paid for a flu jab through Tesco. Even if they are not likely to have covid complications Flu would make them very poorly.

I think there are other factors too. I get the impression one may be the sheer strength of some people's intuition telling them that they're clearly fine, and either not ill at all (if in quarantine) or barely ill at all (if positive), and the disconnect between that strong feeling and the public health messages. On top of that it's clear some people are still afraid of seeming dramatic or attention seeking if they act as if they might have covid (because it seems like claiming they're special and don't just have an ordinary illness), so they tend to minimise.

Agreed and I think the difficulty in getting a test amplifies this. If it's going to be a massive hassle to get a test, and you'll have to miss work and your kids miss school for a week while you do it, it's tempting to think that the cough you have is not persistent and you haven't coughed for an hour or had 3 coughing episodes in a day. It really puts borderline symptomatic people off I'd think (having had my DD2 off school and her sister off school for a week, stuck at home, while trying to get a test and result I can really sympathise with this!).

Health care availability is the overriding issue on one side of the equation. But it’s still only half of it.

Economic damage is the other side so one might say we lockdown more than is best without considering both sides.

Lockdown is the only solution left when you've failed to keep cases low enough to prevent both health damage and economic damage.

It would be much better if we could wear masks more, have better social distancing in all workplaces (including schools) and have better test and trace. But this seems to somehow be impossible in the UK.

@Waveifyouknowme

Schoolchildren here aren't being vaccinated against flu until December

We've not had any information on children's vaccines yet. Thankfully my Flu CV child is 12 so I have paid for a flu jab through Tesco. Even if they are not likely to have covid complications Flu would make them very poorly.

All mine that are in the right age groups have had there flu spray through there schools already. I got mine booked and eldest ds free through boots in August and actually had it at the end of September. Husband had to pay but cheap compared to getting the flu. The only one has hasnt had it is my 12 year old, I didn't realise that you could pay private for under 18s.

We also need to get away from the idea that those who are positive got it becaus they weren't following the rules.

"At a single point in time, you can determine if the #COVID19 epidemic is growing or shrinking using a collective cycle threshold (Ct) value."

"This may be as (or more?) valuable than the effective reproductive number (Rt)."
mobile.twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1316344004804521985

@MarshaBradyo Not sure what numbers you want. The hospital admission figures are published and the news mentions them sometimes. Each and every bed in use for covid is one that would normally have had another patient in it, the NHS doesnt really run with much in the way of spare capacity.

It's more difficult to find up to date figures on staff off sick or self isolating. It's maybe a bit harder to explain to people who lack empathy how upsetting it is for NHS staff to see a much higher numbers of deaths, and pretty nasty deaths. It's also hard to explain how tiring it is to do 12 hour shifts in PPE that presses on your face and dehydrates you while worrying about whether you are taking the virus home with you. Or what it means to be working in a different area - one you are not trained for.

We need to get away from the idea that letting the virus rip reduces economic damage. All the evidence we have suggests that in fact economic damage is reduced by controlling the virus.

Already extra capacity numbers. Then at what point we lose other healthcare etc. I don’t really expect anyone here to have it but I assume government is using a system rationally to decide what to do.

Are you NHS? Yes it must be very hard and of course it’s concerning. I’d expect that would be acknowledged. At what point are the staff overwhelmed.

Obviously if you look at it from one perspective the answer will be lockdown.

But the pressures from the other side are equally strong. At some point in an extreme example we cannot cover the bill for healthcare.